The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

[Orestes]

I don't think 300 is being hit no matter what the opening day is. The WOM will be mixed for sure.

Even if WOM were good, 300 would depend on just how much TDKR affects the legs. Im inclined to think TDKR will just destroy TASM, but I suppose its possible they co-exist like Mad3 and Brave have. Just have to wait and see.

[Walt Disney]

It's a loss, but if it opens less than 30m, 300m is a loss, too.

If no $300M, then I was wrong. And even though Baumer may have been wrong too, his methodology was better than mine. I thought the brand name would propel a bad movie to $300M. I looked at what previous SM movies made, adjusted for inflation, and I just couldn't imagine the movie dropping that much in audience. Then, when it seemed aimed at teenage girls, I felt for sure that it would get there based on brand name and the Twilight audience.So far, I have been more impressed with the way Baumer weighed the factors. He didn't fall for the brand name trap and felt that audiences would not turn out for a bad movie just because it had a familiar brand name. Even if his number is wrong, if this comes in atleast $25M below $300M, then Baumer did a better job than me.Ironically, right before I started typing this, I saw the commerical again advertising TASM. The commercials have once again started to play up," Peter, don't you know the truth about your father?Don't you know what you really are?" or some similar line (I am sure everyone reading has seen the commercial). Edited July 4, 2012 by The Iron Horse

[tonytr87]

Well 250 million would be a big win I would imagine for this....People were seeing 180 million sub for this.

Really? Hmm...I always thought 250m would be considered disappointing.

[Dementeleus]

This is basically shaping up as the second coming of ON STRANGER TIDES.

[Lordmandeep]

I think there is a lot interest in this film, but not enough to drive people to theaters...As with Thor, FC2 and CA...Many will watch this on the small screen.

[riczhang]

Really? Hmm...I always thought 250m would be considered disappointing.

It is for me.

[JackO]

Well 250 million would be a big win I would imagine for this....People were seeing 180 million sub for this.

I disagree. Sony may like it since they have OS to cover the rest but 250M with 3D and inflation is not anything to write home about nowadays.

[CJohn]

This is basically shaping up as the second coming of ON STRANGER TIDES.

That was already the secong coming of Shrek Forever After... so this is the 3rd coming of Shrek 4?

[Orestes]

Really? Hmm...I always thought 250m would be considered disappointing.

I figured anything below Batman Begins or Superman Returns would be disappointing, since those are really the only comparisons we have for this type of situation. I figured on 225 or so, basically a bit better than those two thanks to inflation and 3d.

[Walt Disney]

Really? Hmm...I always thought 250m would be considered disappointing.

I think $250M will be even steven. The people on the low end of the predictions won't claim a win. The people on the high end can't claim a win either. It's right in the middle. There's really no controversy. It's a boring number.

[JackO]

If no $300M, then I was wrong. And even though Baumer may have been wrong too, his methodology was better than mine. I thought the brand name would propel a bad movie to $300M. I looked at what previous SM movies made, adjusted for inflation, and I just couldn't imagine the movie dropping that much in audience. Then, when it seemed aimed at teenage girls, I felt for sure that it would get there based on brand name and the Twilight audience.So far, I have been more impressed with the way Baumer weighed the factors. He didn't fall for the brand name trap and felt that audiences would not turn out for a bad movie just because it had a familiar brand name. Even if his number is wrong, if this comes in atleast $25M below $300M, then Baumer did a better job than me.Ironically, right before I started typing this, I saw the commerical again advertising TASM. The commercials have once again started to play up," Peter, don't you know the truth about your father?Don't you know what you really are?" or some similar line (I am sure everyone reading has seen the commercial).

Tip of the ole cap to Baumer.

[Lordmandeep]

I always expected a big drop off and this had big potential to flat out bomb (sub 200 million).

[The Dark Alfred]

Well 250 million would be a big win I would imagine for this....People were seeing 180 million sub for this.

250m would be a failure.

[JackO]

I think $250M will be even steven. The people on the low end of the predictions won't claim a win. The people on the high end can't claim a win either. It's right in the middle. There's really no controversy. It's a boring number.

yes, that's it.

[baumer]

If no $300M, then I was wrong. And even though Baumer may have been wrong too, his methodology was better than mine. I thought the brand name would propel a bad movie to $300M. I looked at what previous SM movies made, adjusted for inflation, and I just couldn't imagine the movie dropping that much in audience. Then, when it seemed aimed at teenage girls, I felt for sure that it would get there based on brand name and the Twilight audience.So far, I have been more impressed with the way Baumer weighed the factors. He didn't fall for the brand name trap and felt that audiences would not turn out for a bad movie just because it had a familiar brand name. Even if his number is wrong, if this comes in atleast $25M below $300M, then Baumer did a better job than me.Ironically, right before I started typing this, I saw the commerical again advertising TASM. The commercials have once again started to play up," Peter, don't you know the truth about your father?Don't you know what you really are?" or some similar line (I am sure everyone reading has seen the commercial).

Wow, that's awfully nice of you. But you did "turn" to my side, didn't you?

[tonytr87]

I figured anything below Batman Begins or Superman Returns would be disappointing, since those are really the only comparisons we have for this type of situation. I figured on 225 or so, basically a bit better than those two thanks to inflation and 3d.

250m would be a modest success when you factor in OS, but overall it's disappointing due to the fact it's Spider-man. Batman Begins and Superman Returns were coming off not just poorly received precedessors, but long layoffs and four previous films instead of three. According to many here, this was/is supposed to cross 300m on brand alone.

[John Marston]

250m is fine. Combined with strong foreign earnings it can get to 900m worldwide. That's a success no matter which way you spin it.

[Lordmandeep]

Okay...So if we are dismissing 600+ million from overseas markets and are now going back to 1970 logic where only the domestic market counts, 250 million is a flop for ASM..I always thought 250 million would be the best this could do...Add in overseas its a big money maker for sure...

Edited July 4, 2012 by Lordmandeep

[Cedarpoint1111]

250m would be a great. It paves the way for tasm2 to explode to 400m domestic and 1b OS.

[baumer]

250m would be a great. It paves the way for tasm2 to explode to 400m domestic and 1b OS.

Not if the WOM is as mixed as I believe it is.