Tower Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Hey guys I'm new to this thread and site in general! In fact Frozen's miraculous BO run inspired my interest in this kind of stuff. Just one question: I see that everyone seems to have China pegged at around 30M when it opens next week. Don't you think it could be quite a bit higher than that? I mean just based on DM2's run there and how amazing Frozen has done in South Korea I feel like it could do well above 30 but maybe it's not a fair comparison. What do you guys think? China isn't an easy market to predict and grosses can be all over the place. Certainly it's possible that it does much more than 30M, but you can't count on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
portgas Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 (edited) Hey guys I'm new to this thread and site in general! In fact Frozen's miraculous BO run inspired my interest in this kind of stuff. Just one question: I see that everyone seems to have China pegged at around 30M when it opens next week. Don't you think it could be quite a bit higher than that? I mean just based on DM2's run there and how amazing Frozen has done in South Korea I feel like it could do well above 30 but maybe it's not a fair comparison. What do you guys think?Some people are voicing concern that Chinese aren't really in favor of musicals, so it's probably won't get more than DM2. Les Mis grossed 9.9. Frozen already surpassed any expectations, so results are unpredictable. But 30 is just a safe number to assume at this point, looking at Frozen's popularity in SK. I expect it to surprise us again and do 50. Edited January 29, 2014 by portgas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxx93 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I remember people saying it would not do much in South Korea because it is not an animation friendly market unless it is DreamWorks. If Frozen can surprise in that aspect I see no reason why it should underperform in China. Also I think Frozen has a shot at making Wind Rises numbers in Japan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrozenFan626 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 (edited) I remember people saying it would not do much in South Korea because it is not an animation friendly market unless it is DreamWorks. If Frozen can surprise in that aspect I see no reason why it should underperform in China. Also I think Frozen has a shot at making Wind Rises numbers in Japan That would be fantastic but perhaps we should temper expectations in Japan just a bit considering it is not anime and it is an original movie (unlike the Monsters Inc. sequel) but I feel like anything 65M or higher would be nice. Also even though China may not be quite as receptive to a musical it is still a huge market and Frozen has been great just about everywhere else so I still see it doing good business but maybe I'm dead wrong on that. Edited January 29, 2014 by FrozenFan626 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incarnadine Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That would be fantastic but perhaps we should temper expectations in Japan just a bit considering it is not anime and it is an original movie (unlike the Monsters Inc. sequel) but I feel like anything 65M or higher would be nice. Also even though China may not be quite as receptive to a musical it is still a huge market and Frozen has been great just about everywhere else so I still see it doing good business but maybe I'm dead wrong on that. I've been using 30m for China when calculating total WW gross since that is a nice conservative number, but I personally think it has a good chance of breaking out and doing double that. Frozen keeps defying expectations pretty much everywhere. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 (edited) Eh, Cabala gives me no confidence about its performance in China. It's not an action/superhero movie filled with special effects, it doesn't look like the typical 'mindless fun' film and it doesn't have talking potatoes in it. Only chances of a success: it is marketed (and seen) as a 'popular phenomen' or they focus on Olaf. It could struggle to 20 millions without a strong, foxy marketing. Edited January 29, 2014 by Omni Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuck0 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Eh, Cabala gives me no confidence about its performance in China. It's not an action/superhero movie filled with special effects, it doesn't look like the typical 'mindless fun' film and it doesn't have talking potatoes in it. Only chances of a success: it is marketed (and seen) as a 'popular phenomen' or they focus on Olaf. It could struggle to 20 millions without a strong, foxy marketing. Yea, i agree that we should at least keep our hopes in check with respect to china... it really seems such a wildcard... if japan breaks out like SK it will already be pretty epic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrozenFan626 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 (edited) So Frozen picked up $901,782 at the domestic box office yesterday, up 20% from last Tuesday. I know this may be a bit of a stretch but is there a chance that Frozen nabs the top spot again this weekend? The sing along version debuts on Friday which may bump sales a bit and there isn't a ton of new competition coming in. That Awkward Moment could potentially debut at #1 or Ride Along could hold decently (if it drops 49% like it did last week it will make just under 11mil). Thoughts? Edited January 29, 2014 by FrozenFan626 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incarnadine Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 So Frozen picked up 901,782 at the domestic box office yesterday, up 20% from last Tuesday. I know this may sound crazy but is there a chance that Frozen nabs the top spot again this weekend? The Sing along version debuts on Friday which may bump sales a bit and there isn't a ton of new competition coming in. That Awkward Moment could potentially debut at #1 or Ride Along could hold decently (if it drops 50% like it did last week it will make just under 11mil). Thoughts? The chances are slim, but not completely out of the realm of possibility. Movies like Ride Along are going to be the hardest hit on Superbowl Sunday. It's primary audience, even the casual fans, will be glued to the tv. It's an opportunity to get together and socialize for several hours. The Sunday drop for RA will be harsh, same for WOWS and I, Frankenstein. Comparatively, The Nut Job and Frozen will hold up much better, but still have steep drops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrozenFan626 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The chances are slim, but not completely out of the realm of possibility. Movies like Ride Along are going to be the hardest hit on Superbowl Sunday. It's primary audience, even the casual fans, will be glued to the tv. It's an opportunity to get together and socialize for several hours. The Sunday drop for RA will be harsh, same for WOWS and I, Frankenstein. Comparatively, The Nut Job and Frozen will hold up much better, but still have steep drops. Yeah plus Ride Along got pretty terrible reviews in the first place so I don't see it holding particularly well even if the Superbowl weren't this weekend. So you don't see an increase happening for the Frozen sing along release? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah plus Ride Along got pretty terrible reviews in the first place so I don't see it holding particularly well even if the Superbowl weren't this weekend. So you don't see an increase happening for the Frozen sing along release? The singalong's effect is up in the air. It might lead to an increase, but it also might just be a minor hold against other losses. While it's hitting a thousand screens, it doesn't look like there are too many new theaters that are getting it. I only saw two in my area that weren't otherwise playing Frozen, and they might have just switched from the regular to the singalong. Also, it looks like most theaters are only showing it one or two times per day, in the early matinee period. I think a lot of theaters might be taking a hesitant stance about it. They'll throw it up there to see on the interest. If it turns out to be popular, it'll increase the number of showings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Incarnadine Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The singalong's effect is up in the air. It might lead to an increase, but it also might just be a minor hold against other losses. While it's hitting a thousand screens, it doesn't look like there are too many new theaters that are getting it. I only saw two in my area that weren't otherwise playing Frozen, and they might have just switched from the regular to the singalong. Also, it looks like most theaters are only showing it one or two times per day, in the early matinee period. I think a lot of theaters might be taking a hesitant stance about it. They'll throw it up there to see on the interest. If it turns out to be popular, it'll increase the number of showings. Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. I'm hoping the sing-a-long offsets the Superbowl Sunday drop and we end up -15% to flat for the weekend. Anything better than would be pure gravy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan9 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If anyone's around London, Vue Westfield in Shepherd's Bush are showing it twice in VueXtreme this weekend (Saturday and Sunday at 14:00), which is basically the closest you'll ever get to seeing it in IMAX here. I saw Gravity in the format and the screen size and sound were really awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I go there a lot, it's pretty cool that they're moving it back onto Xtreme. Must be expecting another flat weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dingdong123 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Urgh China needs to cooperate. Not here for Frozen missing the 1B mark because of a single market not cooperating. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Strangely enough : I don't expect big Chinese numbers, but very hopeful about Japan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Urgh China needs to cooperate. Not here for Frozen missing the 1B mark because of a single market not cooperating. People have a terrible behavior about China here : they always think a movie will miss the billion threshold only because it's not good in China or won't be released there, it's fucking ridiculous. When China was a small market movies could reach the $1B, and now it's even better given Russia and Latin America are fast-growing and bigger as well. Foreign markets don't mean "China" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrozenFan626 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 (edited) I'm getting more excited for the U.S. numbers this weekend. The sing-along version is now slated to be in 2000 theatres and the soundtrack is back at number 1 on the Billboard charts. Frozen is also at number 1 for online ticket sales at Fandago. http://www.thewrap.com/frozen-sing-along-top-selling-movie-fandango/ http://www.billboard.com/articles/news/5885821/frozen-soundtrack-returns-to-no-1-on-billboard-200 Edited January 30, 2014 by FrozenFan626 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrozenFan626 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Well that first link I posted above that said 2000 theatres is gone so maybe its still only 1000 that are switching to the sing-along but overall there's still going to be at least 2500 showing some version of Frozen and with all of the other factors like the Superbowl and no new kids releases till next week I'm starting to think there's a very real chance it takes #1 at the domestic B.O. once again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omni Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think most of those 1000 (or more) theatres are already showing the regular movie, so the TC gain will probably be minimal. But It's definitely adding showtimes and further interest, which is much more important for a movie already playing in 2500+ theatres. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
