Sims Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 You got the memory span of a fly or something? Go read your posts. To summarize a few of them... "200m would've been tough but I think it could've done around 195m and anyone who thinks 180m or under is frankly an idiot."Keep contradicting yourself.Ugh it's like arguing with a wall.200M would've been tough but not impossible. 190-195 is my guess at where it would have landed. Anyone saying it would have done any less than 180 is frankly an idiot.1st grade math tells us that 190-195M minus 160M is 30-35M. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yawn...This argument again. It's like this, "Hey, I predicted $170M for TDKR, so I say the shootings affected it $10M-$15M," and then someone else goes, "No, you're wrong, you see, I predicted $200M, so that means, at least, the shootings affected it by $20M because there was no way this would open less than $180M, but I still think it would have opened to $200M because DHD users voted 20% are avoiding theaters this weekend and 20% of $200M is $160m."Does that pretty much sum things up?I will add this, WB predicted $170M for TDKR and studios, always try to underestimate their films. $170M was WB's worst case-scenario prediction which came in way under what tracking pointed towards. But, with that said, everyone thinks they are right. Those with high predictions think their prediction was closer to what would have happened. Those with lower predictions, predict the shootings had a much smaller affect.This argument isn't going anywhere. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Ugh it's like arguing with a wall.1st grade math tells us that 190-195M minus 160M is 30-35M. Next.LOL, so you said 35m instead of 40m! Damn, that 5m difference changes everything. Game over man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yawn...This argument again. It's like this, "Hey, I predicted $170M for TDKR, so I say the shootings affected it $10M-$15M," and then someone else goes, "No, you're wrong, you see, I predicted $200M, so that means, at least, the shootings affected it by $20M because there was no way this would open less than $180M, but I still think it would have opened to $200M because DHD users voted 20% are avoiding theaters this weekend and 20% of $200M is $160m."Does that pretty much sum things up?I will add this, WB predicted $170M for TDKR and studios, always try to underestimate their films. $170M was WB's worst case-scenario prediction which came in way under what tracking pointed towards. But, with that said, everyone thinks they are right. Those with high predictions think their prediction was closer to what would have happened. Those with lower predictions, predict the shootings had a much smaller affect.This argument isn't going anywhere.Yeah, I'm probably gonna stay out of TDKR threads until we see legs. Still though, the fictional 200mish predictions were absurd regardless of the shooting... people bought into hype and Avengers inflated some people's expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sims Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 LOL, so you said 35m instead of 40m! Damn, that 5m difference changes everything. Game over man.You were the one making such a big deal about it. Don't pretend you're above arguments on discussion forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think this would have made 180-190M OW. I can't prove it, but it is my opinion. It suffered a lot in middle America because of the shooting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah, I'm probably gonna stay out of TDKR threads until we see legs. Still though, the fictional 200mish predictions were absurd regardless of the shooting... people bought into hype and Avengers inflated some people's expectations.No way to prove the $200M predictions were fictional. But, it could have also opened as low as $170M. The point is, none of us know for sure where this would have opened. Although, I do think $200M would have been a tall-order after $30M midnights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Prediction for the rest of the week:Tuesday: $15MWednesday: $12MThursday: $10MFriday: $22MSaturday: $28MSunday: $21MTotal by Next Monday: $290M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sims Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Prediction for the rest of the week:Tuesday: $15MWednesday: $12MThursday: $10MFriday: $22MSaturday: $28MSunday: $21MTotal by Next Monday: $290MThat kind of a Friday increase isn't happening. I don't think it can get to 10M by Thursday though. That would be horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Prediction for the rest of the week: Tuesday: $15M Wednesday: $12M Thursday: $10M Friday: $22M Saturday: $28M Sunday: $21M Total by Next Monday: $290M 25% Tuesday drop? 120% Friday jump? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sin Graft Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 (edited) ... because literally every indicator we had pointed to a weekend at or above the attendance record,...Indicators?! They're not foolproof ya know, pun intended, they can be wrong. They just recently were in fact, with Marvel's The Avengers. Tracking & the like woefully underestimated TA's eXplosive OW. Stands to reason they could've just as easily overpredicted TDKR's potential as well. Edited July 25, 2012 by Sin Graft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 25% Tuesday drop? 120% Friday jump? I'm hoping I'm wrong btw. As a fan of the series I hope this weekend coming up makes up for the "10-15M" lost by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExcelFTW Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Indicators?! They're not foolproof ya know, pun intended, they can be wrong. They just recently were in fact, with Marvel's The Avengers. Tracking & the like woefully underestimated TA's eXplosive OW. Stands to reason they could've just as easily overpredicted TDKR's potential as well. Your argument is a based on a theory, not evidence. Basically what is going on is people are providing evidence used to base their guesstimates, and you are saying "that is not def. true, anything is possible". The question isn't whats possible, the question is what was likely. The evidence all points in one direction, you are rebutting the evidence with an analysis which differs just for the sake of differing, rather other pieces of evidence which would actually support your claim. The evidence clearly points north of 180 million. I objectively see no way around that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sims Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Your argument is a based on a theory, not evidence.Basically what is going on is people are providing evidence used to base their guesstimates, and you are saying "that is not def. true, anything is possible". The question isn't whats possible, the question is what was likely. The evidence all points in one direction, you are rebutting the evidence with an analysis which differs just for the sake of differing, rather other pieces of evidence which would actually support your claim.The evidence clearly points north of 180 million. I objectively see no way around that one.Thank you for this. It's obviously possible the film would have done less than 180 but it's very unlikely given all the evidence in favor of an attendance record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 I'm hoping I'm wrong btw. As a fan of the series I hope this weekend coming up makes up for the "10-15M" lost by this weekend.Your weekday numbers are too low and the Friday jump is too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I have already forgot about the tragedy.How about you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Your weekday numbers are too low and the Friday jump is too high.Would you mind posting your prediction so I can compare?I'm interested in everyone's opinion for the 10 Day Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I have already forgot about the tragedy.How about you ?It's pretty hard to forget about it when it is the only thing talked about ad nauesm in these forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Tuesday should be 17M+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Would you mind posting your prediction so I can compare?I'm interested in everyone's opinion for the 10 Day Gross.I think your $71M weekend prediction sounds good, but your Tuesday drop is very harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
