Quigley Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 It's official: http://www.digifilm.com.cn/movie_issue/index They will hurt each other. All being visual feasts, probably all gonna sort of underperform. Trans4mers won't underperform. Being the last on the list, it won't suffer from post-release competition. And it is guaranteed to open higher than the others. Even in North America, usually the last movie on a long list will have better holds than the rest, even if it has a lower opening weekend. For example, Planes last summer opened lower than Smurfs 2 and Turbo (both had 5-day openings), but it out-grossed both of them in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Thursday est Overheard 3 28M od Including 1M midnights DOFP 21M 359M not so good 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 $1B WW is expected. Looks to repeat & give what TF3 had done. Pirates 4 has a lousy story, that OS gross still hit $800M, it's just insane this franchise thing. People tend to love familiar heroes. But how far can you go? Will Pirates 5, if green lit at all, go to Deathly Hallows 2's fantastical $960M OS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Week chart for X-Men:DOP please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 On Thursday, DOFP and Overheard 3 almost have same amount of showtimes.Which does better, which will have the bigger screens this weekend. Thursday estOverheard 3 28M od Including 1M midnightsDOFP 21M 359M not so goodWell, that answers it. That's a bit anticlimactic tbh thought they would closer to each other.Thanks for the quick update as always Olive! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 $1B WW is expected. Looks to repeat & give what TF3 had done. Pirates 4 has a lousy story, that OS gross still hit $800M, it's just insane this franchise thing. People tend to love familiar heroes. But how far can you go? Will Pirates 5, if green lit at all, go to Deathly Hallows 2's fantastical $960M OS? I don't think NA will honor the alien robots like it did for previous instalments. I doubt it will get to $300M. And if anything, Europe's contribution will fall dramatically. It's up to Latin America (not so much) and Asia (minus Japan) to save it, but I'm not convinced it will happen. I say NA: $260M and outside NA: $720M for WW $980M. Pirates 5 has big potential but only if it is a good film. I think many fans (including me) were disppointed with the 4th so unless the next one is very good, many will avoid watching it (ticket-price inflation and the booming Chinese market can still help it reach $1B, but no one can say for sure). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alee7915 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Thursday est Overheard 3 28M od Including 1M midnights DOFP 21M 359M not so good where's the fan blinkblink fans in China? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfantin65 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 (edited) Ski Trail to 300+ $350,000,000 This projection is with 10% average drops which has yet to materialize in the run. Spirited Away starts comparing to Frozen at week three due to its big midweeks it had during 7weeks of summer. This comparrison is for the long leg battle. SA numbers have been converted to current exchange rate. With the way Frozen has performed I see it keeping pace with SA and I'm calling it a lock, I just don't see it fading hard with the post GW hold. Old school! E.T was the last entry into the top for admission pre VCR. It is the number one straight runner upon initial release. Star Wars had expansion help the following summer. One can argue this is the all time #1 movie stateside. Lets see how frozen holds its weekend drops compared to E.T. and if it can catch up. It had 12 weeks summer boost to start and ran for 52 weeks without major a re-expansion # E.T. Spirited Away Frozen WE % TOT WE % Week TOT MW WE Week TOT 1 11.800 11.800 7.531 9.731 9.731 2 12.400 +6 34.400 11.300 8.550+13 19.800 29.535 3 13.700 +9 58.500 10.000 10.000 10.000 13.400 8.569 +1 22.000 51.579 4 12.700 -7 82.500 9.500 -5 32.000 42.000 15.300 8.238 -5 23.500 75.100 5 12.800 +0 106.900 8.700 -8 29.500 71.500 7.800 8.286 +1 16.000 90.600 6 13.000 +2 129.400 9.200 +6 34.500 106.000 5.900 8.046 -3 14.000 104.800 7 11.300-13 150.500 8.700 -5 24.500 130.500 5.900 7.558 -6 13.400 118.400 8 10.400 -7 169.500 8.800 +1 16.200 146.700 14.100 11.100+48 24.900 144.400 GW Bump 9 9.500 -9 186.700 6.700-24 22.200 167.100 15.800 7.200-36 23.000 167.400 Summer/GW-Over 10 8.400-11 202.000 6.800 +1 15.100 182.200 6.000 7.900+10 13.900 181.300 Leg battle! 11 7.700 -9 215.700 6.400 -6 13.100 195.300 6.150 6.850-13 13.100 194.300 Actual # 12 6.600-14 227.400 5.000-20 12.500 207.800 5.500 6.400 11.800 206.100 estimate 13 6.000 -9 237.000 4.300-14 11.000 218.800 4.800 5.700 10.500 217.600 Oct/June 14 4.600-24 244.700 3.900 -9 6.500 225.300 4.300 5.100 9.400 227.000 15 4.303 -7 250.600 2.600-33 4.400 229.700 3.700 4.600 8.300 235.300 16 4.000 -4 256.000 2.600 -0 4.700 234.400 3.300 4.200 7.500 242.500 17 3.700 -9 261.100 3.200+22 5.900 240.300 2.900 3.800 6.700 249.200 Nov/July 18 3.800 +1 266.000 2.900-10 5.900 242.200 2.600 3.400 6.000 255.200 19 3.300-12 270.600 1.900-34 3.900 250.100 4.500 3.100 6.600 262.800 Summer Bump FR 20 3.200 -2 274.800 1.800 -6 3.200 253.300 4.100 2.800 6.900 269.700 21 2.800-15 278.600 2.500+35 3.800 257.100 3.700 2.500 6.200 275.900 December SA 22 3.099+10 282.600 1.500-40 3.200 260.200 3.400 2.200 5.600 280.500 23 2.940 -3 286.700 1.100-27 2.100 262.300 4.500 3.000 7.500 288.000 Obon Bump FR 24 2.880 -2 290.300 2.700 1.800 4.500 292.500 25 4.000+38 296.000 2.400 1.600 4.000 296.500 26 2.400-40 299.000 2.200 1.500 3.700 300.200 27 2.000-14 301.500 1.900 1.400 3.300 303.500 28 2.600+27 305.000 1.700 1.200 2.900 306.400 Summer Over 42 Ext Run 359.000 Extended Run 294.000 Extended Run 330.000+ ??? Its holding tighter than either of them. The only real drops were after bumps. only down 20% from week 2. ET down 41%. SA down 55% from weekend two. The weekly average drop is just 3% from week 5. The current week looks like its going to come in flat at 13.1m, not the 11.8 I estimated a few days ago. Okay people. Time for another Frozen Japan BO challenge. We had a pre and post GW contest, now we have sick weekly holds and a run you may never see again. These holds still make it difficult to pin down a final number at week 12 and that's what makes it fun and not a time to be conservative. This is not a revision. The first two rounds stay intact, although I feel they're decided.... and I won them both Take the week to contemplate it, due by 1200 Tokyo saturday, 11pm ny friday. This could be months before its decided, if you're all not too low. We have yet to have a regular(non holiday) week over week 10% drop. The current week is looking at 12m+. Will it be 8, 12, 16 or 20 times that? Aim high and stay in the game until New Year. Round 1 April 25th Rnd 2 May 10 Rnd 3 may 29 mfantin .............314.800 325.000 ???.??? SamComedian 272.000 Boxx93........ ......260 265.000 300.000 Kingslayer..........250 275.000 KZ-boy 340.000 Henry II 262.000 Quigley 255.000 303.000 Chucky ..............240 252.252 ZackZack 250.000 Omni .................225 245.000 375.000 Song of Iceroll. .222 Ray.....................215 273.000 316.000 Spizzer...............215 315.000 Edroger..............210 Queen Elsa........210 280.000 Ball Lightning.....210 Incaradine..........207 250.000 368.061.266 Rsyu...................205 Tong Kosong......203 245.000 318.000 Gokai Red 317.800 Murgatroyd.........200 258.000 Keysersoze.........200 225.000 Hans13............. .195 228.000 305.000 DamienRoc........193,435,058 266.972 321,176,421 Catlover..............190 255.800 Olive Max...........188.4 Chasmmi............187 Cynosure ...........185 Ray subers.........175 "200 is absurd" IDK, a lot 500.000 BOM total if the dollar crashes corpse ...............170 "never break 244" 200.000 300.000 50/50 never say never! Labas.................170 @giteshpandya ..150 at 194m "going to blasting thru 200!" - no shit Lab276 ..............147 Winner is closest dollar amount away from final number. up or down. np penalty for going over. Aim high aim true! First prize is ray subers job♣ Second place is Gitesh Pandya's job Third place, a set of steak knives, To prevent the currency rate from coning into play, the final total will be yen total divided by 102.12, the average rate during the run thus far. New people welcome. # 1 All-time run happening for a foriegn or local film in a foriegn market. No movie has surpassed $300m, sorry China you'll get there soon. Frozen is looking to be the first and perhaps out perform all other other movies in any market released this year including domestic. 350 is my lock. It could "crash" or soar higher. Whats your prediction? Edited May 29, 2014 by T E Lawrence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Shitty number. Hope it recovers tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 29, 2014 Author Share Posted May 29, 2014 (edited) # 1 All-time run happening for a foriegn or local film in a foriegn market. No movie has surpassed $300m, sorry China you'll get there soon. Frozen is looking to be the first and perhaps out perform all other other movies in any market released this year including domestic. 350 is my lock. It could "crash" or soar higher. Whats your prediction? NVM Edited May 29, 2014 by firedeep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 What is the current all-time #1 movie in China and what's the gross? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted May 29, 2014 Author Share Posted May 29, 2014 What is the current all-time #1 movie in China and what's the gross? Avatar 1.38B rmb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Wasn't there a movie recently which did 1B+? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 DOFP should pull ahead tomorrow, right? Since opener normally jump less, even if it's Friday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emirazza Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Shitty number.Hope it recovers tomorrow. What's happening? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samarus Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 What's happening? Maybe the Chinese are dissappointed, because they don't get enough Fan Bingbing in the movie? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 (edited) asm2 4/5:61.14 5/5:36.33 6/5:34.32 7/5:28.32 8/5:23.95 (184.06 total) (dofp - 21; day 7; 359 total. lead of 175 over asm2) 9/5:38.90(+62.4%) 10/5:75.02(+92.9%) 11/5: 51.91(-30.4%) 12/5:16.41 13/5:16.66 14/5:14.28 15/5:13.23 16/5:19.30(+45.9%) 17/5:38.85(+101.3%) 18/5:30.97(-20.3%) asm2 was 576m on wed(28th may). so adding thrusday(which i believe is it's last day? not sure) it will be at 578m. so with a lead of 175 over asm2, 700 still looks likely for dofp. needs 341m more. asm2 added 394m after it's 1st thursday. those who know follow chinas bo and know more about it..thoughts? Edited May 29, 2014 by a2k 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Week chart for X-Men:DOP please? Mon - Thur 33.5/ 33/ 27/ 21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 (edited) Numbers are hard to compare since Spider-Man opened on Sun so it's 2nd w/e was it's first full w/e. It also seemed to play more like a family/children's film - smaller weekdays, bigger weekends. Right now DOFP is tracking about 30m y behind CA2 and with a 21m vs 24m Thur. CA2 though had the benefit of a Monday holiday and DOFP has a holiday coming up. DOFP though seems to have more competition with Rio 2 and Transcendence under performing against ASM2. 700 is still possible, can't see it doing less than 650. When is DOFP scheduled to leave theaters? Edited May 29, 2014 by TalismanRing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alee7915 Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 (edited) Maybe the Chinese are dissappointed, because they don't get enough Fan Bingbing in the movie? Her name is Fan Blinkblink not Fan Bingbing Edited May 30, 2014 by Sexercize Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...