China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[fmpro]

Want to see index on Maoyan app(a good indicator for BO potential)

Terminator 5 - 131k

Fantastic 4 - 73k

MI5 - 124k

Minions - 154k

Pixels - 13k

Antman - 60k

Fantastic for T5. Could be frontloaded though

Please keep posting these WTS index's from time to time

Edited July 27, 2015 by fmpro

[grim22]

Want to see index on Maoyan app(a good indicator for BO potential)

Terminator 5 - 131k

Fantastic 4 - 73k

MI5 - 124k

Minions - 154k

Pixels - 13k

Antman - 60k

Anything for Star Wars and BvS yet? I know they have 5-9 months, just wanted to know if they are top of mind for Chinese netizens.

[Olive]

Anything for Star Wars and BvS yet? I know they have 5-9 months, just wanted to know if they are top of mind for Chinese netizens.

SW7 - 53444

BVS - 21596

CA3 - 37705

[grim22]

SW7 - 53444

BVS - 21596

CA3 - 37705

Good numbers, especially this far out for all 3 movies. Guessing Star Wars will get the Hobbit release date from prior years, no idea when BvS and Civil War will release. All 3 should end up doing great business in China by the looks of it.

[MinaTakla]

Kylin, would be great if you update us on the Want to see list every week or so if you can so we can see the trend. Thanks!

[efialtes76]

SW7 - 53444

BVS - 21596

CA3 - 37705

And KFP3?

[Lihongkim]

Wild City had a great review, will top all new openers this weekend. 

[Infernus]

And KFP3?

 

+1. Since its releasing before BvS and CW, it should already have a high WTS index. Now I am not fully aware of the precise technicalities of this, for example whether animated films have a lower index (can not think of any reason why it should be so, but anyways) but if SW7 is already at 53k then I believe KFP3 must already be atleast 100k+. Am I close?

[Olive]

+1. Since its releasing before BvS and CW, it should already have a high WTS index. Now I am not fully aware of the precise technicalities of this, for example whether animated films have a lower index (can not think of any reason why it should be so, but anyways) but if SW7 is already at 53k then I believe KFP3 must already be atleast 100k+. Am I close?

About 60k

[POTUS 2020]

FF7						TF4					MH		-40%	Proj
Day	Yn	% +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Thur											165			165	27
Fri						195			195	32	132			297	48
Sat	51	- MN				223	14.4%		418	69	188	42.4%		485	78
Sun	347			398	64	213	-4.6%		631	103	183	-2.7%		668	108
Mon	185	-46.7%		583	94	123	-42.1%		754	124	109	-40.4%		777	125
Tues	167	-9.7%		750	121	112	-8.9%		866	142	102	-6.4%		879	142
Wed	137	-18.0%		887	143	95	-15.7%		961	157	87	-14.7%		966	156
Thur	115	-16.1%		1002	162	84	-11.0%		1045	171	82	-5.7%	-50.3%	1048	169
Fri	142	23.8%		1144	185	87	3.4%	-55.3%	1132	186	80	-2.4%	-39.4%	1128	182
Sat	226	59.0%		1371	221	130	48.8%	-41.9%	1262	207	120	50.0%	-36.2%	1248	201
Sun	185	-18.1%	-46.6%	1556	251	118	-9.0%	-44.6%	1379	226	124	2.9%	-32.5%	1372	221
Mon	73	-60.6%	-60.5%	1629	263	54	-58.3%	-56.1%	1433	235	64	-48.2%	-41.3%	1436	231
Tue	65	-11.0%	-61.1%	1694	273	53	-1.9%	-52.8%	1486	244	59	-7.8%	-42.2%	1495	241	est
Wed	52	-19.4%	-61.8%	1747	282	43	-18.9%	-54.5%	1529	251	55	-6.8%	-36.8%	1550	250	proj
Thu	45	-14.1%	-60.9%	1792	289	39	-9.3%	-53.7%	1568	257	41	-25.5%	-50.0%	1591	256	proj
Fri	59	31.1%	-58.6%	1851	298	42	7.7%	-51.8%	1610	264	41	0.0%	-48.8%	1632	263	proj
Sat	92	55.1%	-59.6%	1942	313	62	47.6%	-52.2%	1672	274	60	46.3%	-50.0%	1692	272	proj
Sun	69	-24.2%	-62.6%	2012	324	58	-6.45%	-50.8%	1730	284	58	-3.33%	-53.0%	1750	282	proj
Mon	27	-61.4%	-63.3%	2038	329	26	-55.2%	-51.9%	1756	288	35	-39.7%	-45.3%	1785	287	proj
Tue	26	-1.5%	-59.4%	2065	334	28	7.7%	-47.2%	1784	293	33	-5.7%	-44.1%	1818	293	proj
Wed	24	-10.2%	-54.8%	2088	337	23	-17.9%	-46.5%	1807	296	32	-3.0%	-41.8%	1850	298	proj
Thu	31	32.5%	-30.2%	2120	342	18	-21.7%	-53.8%	1825	299	26	-18.8%	-36.6%	1876	302	proj
Fri	67	114.6%	14.2%	2187	353	18	0.0%	-57.1%	1843	302	27	3.8%	-34.1%	1903	306	proj
Sat	67	-0.6%	-26.8%	2254	364	24	33.3%	-61.3%	1867	306	39	44.4%	-35.0%	1942	313	proj
Sun	39	-41.8%	-43.8%	2293	370	20	-16.67%	-65.5%	1887	309	38	-2.56%	-34.5%	1980	319	proj
Mon	15	-61.3%	-43.7%	2308	373	10	-50.0%	-61.5%	1897	311	22	-42.1%	-37.1%	2002	322	proj
Tue	14	-9.3%	-48.1%	2322	375	10	0.0%	-64.3%	1907	313	21	-4.5%	-36.4%	2023	326	proj
Wed	12	-13.9%	-50.2%	2334	377	10	0.0%	-56.5%	1917	314	20	-4.8%	-37.5%	2043	329	proj
Thu	10	-11.9%	-66.9%	2344	379	9	-10.0%	-50.0%	1926	316	17	-15.0%	-34.6%	2060	332	proj
Fri	14	31.7%	-79.7%	2358	381	11	22.2%	-38.9%	1937	318	18	5.9%	-33.3%	2078	335	proj
Sat	24	71.5%	-64.9%	2381	385	11	0.0%	-54.2%	1948	319	25	38.9%	-35.9%	2103	339	proj
Sun	20	-15.3%	-49.0%	2401	388						23	-8.00%	-39.5%	2126	342	proj
Mon	10	-49.7%	-33.8%	2411	390						13	-43.5%	-40.9%	2139	344	proj
Tue											12	-7.7%	-42.9%	2151	346	proj
				2411	390				1948	319				2200	350	-370

Added FF7. I dropped the projection to 50% for next weekend with a potentially big opener then have a bounce back with a softer drop the following week as what usually happens in domestic

 

MH was 50% of the tickets sold with just 34% of show times yesterday. Its really outperforming the rest of the market I assume it should keep at least 22% of show times come Thursday/Friday.

Edited July 28, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[Mojoguy]

MH is a Chinese film right? No stupid rule that says it must leave theaters after one month like all American movies?

[POTUS 2020]

MH is a Chinese film right? No stupid rule that says it must leave theaters after one month like all American movies?

yup, no rule. that why I have the projection beyond 30 days. If it has a footrace with TF4, it will win by 10-20m or more with additional weeks

[Mojoguy]

yup, no rule. that why I have the projection beyond 30 days. If it has a footrace with TF4, it will win by 10-20m or more with additional weeks

Would you agree that American films are hurt too much by the one month rule in China?

[Olive]

Would you agree that American films are hurt too much by the one month rule in China?

No, most movies don't make much beyond 30 days.

[Mojoguy]

No, most movies don't make much beyond 30 days.

Thanks, Johnny.

[Durden]

Ant-Man has a date?

[Olive]

Ant-Man has a date?

No

[POTUS 2020]

Would you agree that American films are hurt too much by the one month rule in China?

Titanic made a bit of money from day 31-60. TF4, AOU JW and FF7 all made 10-25m more their final week. They could've made that much more(5-10%) in 2-3 weeks if they stayed open.

I think they are mostly hurt by the release months(outside of holidays and summer) and Monday/Tuesday openers, only 4 weekends.

Also releasing 3 or 4 big ones in a short time span and at a bad time. like they are doing this year at the end of august.

Edited July 28, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[A Marvel Fanboy]

While no one can prove it, I think the impact of all the manipulations combined on the release of imported films should be no more than 10% of the total box office these films are generating. For instance, total imported gross looks to be around 18B. But without the manipulations, it is still unlikely to go beyond 20B IMO. (That's still less than 50% of the yearly gross).

 

Despite a quota of 34 RS titles and 20-plus buyouts, only a handful of HLW blockbusters could have some size-able staying power after 30 days in release. As for the bad release dates, many fans and moviegoers who want to see these movies would see it anyway.

 

By my guess, if we divide the current cinema audience in China into groups, 30% of them basically only go to imported movies, 30% of them go to both imported and local movies, 40% of them basically only go to local movies.

Edited July 28, 2015 by firedeep

[Cynosure]

People don't remember it but quotas and protectionism are nothing new.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blum%E2%80%93Byrnes_agreement

 

Given that China is just starting to build on their huge population to strenghen their local cinema, it's really not surprising for them to have such measures. As with most goods and services, the liberalization should eventually occur.