China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[druv10]

32 minutes ago, #ED said:

When do BvS presales start?

Presales usually start 1 week before OD.

[efialtes76]

On 17/2/2016 at 5:03 PM, efialtes76 said:

Presales 00:00 am

 

Mermaid:14.93M

Naruto:8.47M

TMK2:4.48M

Macau 3:3.19M

KFP3:1.99M

Friday 00:00

 

CTHD2:15.50M

Mermaid:13.99M(-6.3%)

Naruto:2.99M(-64.7%)

TMK2:2.97M(-33.7%)

Macau 3:2.15M(-32.6%)

KFP3:1.51M(-24.1%)

 

 

Edited February 18, 2016 by efialtes76

[Agafin]

On 2/17/2016 at 0:02 PM, PPZVGOS said:

My Bold Prediction for the future of the global box-office:

 

There will be a $1bln grosser in a single market in China before North America. 

 

That's unlikely I think. Star Wars IX might get there in 2019 (if it's good) and I doubt a movie in China would have reached even $800mln by then.

[peludo]

11 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

That's unlikely I think. Star Wars IX might get there in 2019 (if it's good) and I doubt a movie in China would have reached even $800mln by then.

Until 2013, biggest film was Avatar with $204m. In 2014 came TF4 which did $320m. In 2015, another 2 films beat TF4 by another $70m, making over $390m. Now, just 6 months after Monster Hunt, The Mermaid is beating all of them, reaching $500m... You say that in 2019 US has Star Wars 9. That same year China has Transformers 7 (and 2 or 3 local hits)... I would not rule out the chance so early.

 

And I have serious doubts that SW9 can beat SW7. IMO, no matters the quality, this trilogy can have the same behaviour than the other two trilogies.

Edited February 18, 2016 by peludo

[Fake]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Friday 00:00

 

CTHD2:15.50M

Mermaid:13.99M(-6.3%)

Naruto:2.99M(-64.7%)

TMK2:2.97M(-33.7%)

Macau 3:2.15M(-32.6%)

KFP3:1.51M(-24.1%)

 

 

Hope Mermaid can stay above 100M tomorrow..... that will keep the chances of $500M alive.

Edited February 18, 2016 by Fake

[Agafin]

8 minutes ago, peludo said:

Until 2013, biggest film was Avatar with $204m. In 2014 came TF4 which did $320m. In 2015, another 2 films beat TF4 by another $70m, making over $390m. Now, just 6 months after Monster Hunt, The Mermaid is beating all of them, reaching $500m... You say that in 2019 US has Star Wars 9. That same year China has Transformers 7 (and 2 or 3 local hits)... I would not rule out the chance so early.

 

And I have serious doubts that SW9 can beat SW7. IMO, no matters the quality, this trilogy can have the same behaviour than the other two trilogies.

 

Yes, Chinese movie market is growing very fast... which is why I think it will soon hit a wall, just like the previously rapidly growing Economy has. It's certainly within the realm of possiblity that we get a $1b movie there by 2020 but I personally think that's unlikely. Mermaid has had sort of a perfect storm situation. It was released in what is essentially a full holiday week and the two openers that went against it had average to mediocre WOM. If another movie makes $500m this year, then I'll reconsider.

 

About SW, yeah that's true, the first in each trilogies ended up being the highest grossing one (and obviously the biggest ticket seller). We'll see how this one behaves I guess.

[peludo]

1 minute ago, Agafin said:

 

Yes, Chinese movie market is growing very fast... which is why I think it will soon hit a wall, just like the previously rapidly growing Economy has. It's certainly within the realm of possiblity that we get a $1b movie there by 2020 but I personally think that's unlikely. Mermaid has had sort of a perfect storm situation. It was released in what is essentially a full holiday week and the two openers that went against it had average to mediocre WOM. If another movie makes $500m this year, then I'll reconsider.

 

About SW, yeah that's true, the first in each trilogies ended up being the highest grossing one (and obviously the biggest ticket seller). We'll see how this one behaves I guess.

That is basically the definition of Star Wars run in US

[Olive]

8 minutes ago, Fake said:

Hope Mermaid can stay above 100M tomorrow..... that will keep the chances of $1B alive.

Saturday is a working day to make up last week's holiday.

So sub-100M for Mermaid on Friday is very likely.

[Agafin]

9 minutes ago, peludo said:

That is basically the definition of Star Wars run in US

No you can't really compare the two. There's simply no equivalent in the US. People still had work on the week TFA was released in except on Xmas day. Holidays which spread over a whole week (like CNY or Golden week in Japan) seems like a purely asian thing that you won't find anywhere else.

[peludo]

11 minutes ago, Agafin said:

No you can't really compare the two. There's simply no equivalent in the US. People still had work on the week TFA was released in except on Xmas day. Holidays which spread over a whole week (like CNY or Golden week in Japan) seems like a purely asian thing that you won't find anywhere else.

I can compare 1 whole holidays week (Mermaid) with Opening+2 Christmas weeks (Star Wars), since holidays dailys are abnormaly high relative to the rest of the year. It is not an exact comparison, but since there are not two equal holidays periods in any country in the world, I think it is the closer situation we can see between USA and China, IMHO.

 

Anyway, both runs are impressive.

[fmpro]

39 minutes ago, Fake said:

Hope Mermaid can stay above 100M tomorrow..... that will keep the chances of $1B alive.

 

1B ??

[Agafin]

10 minutes ago, peludo said:

Anyway, both runs are impressive.

True.

[Fake]

26 minutes ago, fmpro said:

 

1B ??

Oops..... Brain freeze........ meant to say $500M.

[Mrstickball]

1 hour ago, Agafin said:

No you can't really compare the two. There's simply no equivalent in the US. People still had work on the week TFA was released in except on Xmas day. Holidays which spread over a whole week (like CNY or Golden week in Japan) seems like a purely asian thing that you won't find anywhere else.

 

The two weeks between Christmas Eve and New Years day are the closest thing we can compare to CNY, and I think that arguing their similarity makes perfect sense. Kids are out during those two weeks, and some offices/businesses do in fact close during that time. Factories and tech workers usually get them off. 

[Gokai Red]

I think it's safe to say that China will have a 1B (USD) film before DOM will at this point. TFA had a perfect storm of factors and will finish around 935-950, which is an amazing number of course, but the DOM market is largely stagnant. Yes, we have up years like 2012, 13 and 15, but China's market is still growing, and still at a very rapid pace. It's looking extremely likely that China's highest grossing film in 2016 will outgross DOM's highest grossing 2016 film, and China is still growing. Yeah we can argue Avatar or Star Wars sequels, but we know sequels to mega-blockbusters decrease DOM, so it's looking highly unlikely any film within the next 5-10 years can do it. It is almost a mathematical certainty that China will reach 1B before DOM does it. 

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, Gokai Red said:

I think it's safe to say that China will have a 1B (USD) film before DOM will at this point. TFA had a perfect storm of factors and will finish around 935-950, which is an amazing number of course, but the DOM market is largely stagnant. Yes, we have up years like 2012, 13 and 15, but China's market is still growing, and still at a very rapid pace. It's looking extremely likely that China's highest grossing film in 2016 will outgross DOM's highest grossing 2016 film, and China is still growing. Yeah we can argue Avatar or Star Wars sequels, but we know sequels to mega-blockbusters decrease DOM, so it's looking highly unlikely any film within the next 5-10 years can do it. It is almost a mathematical certainty that China will reach 1B before DOM does it. 

I always wondered why. This is a scary trend not just happening to Major blockbusters but many series movies which sequels are arguably better Eg: How to Train your dragon 2, GI Joe 2 etc and like you said Mega Blockbusters like TDKR compared to TDK(ignore Batman begins for now), Avengers 2

[KP1025]

11 hours ago, peludo said:

Until 2013, biggest film was Avatar with $204m. In 2014 came TF4 which did $320m. In 2015, another 2 films beat TF4 by another $70m, making over $390m. Now, just 6 months after Monster Hunt, The Mermaid is beating all of them, reaching $500m... You say that in 2019 US has Star Wars 9. That same year China has Transformers 7 (and 2 or 3 local hits)... I would not rule out the chance so early.

 

And I have serious doubts that SW9 can beat SW7. IMO, no matters the quality, this trilogy can have the same behaviour than the other two trilogies.

 

Avatar 2 should also be released 2019 in China, assuming a January release like the original. Avatar was $204 million in January 2010, so 9 years of growth could push it close to $1 billion. Depends if the sequel is a must see cinematic experience like the original. 

[jb007]

Projecting future sequels based on the performances of their predecessors has not really panned out that great in China for the most part. 

 

Is $500M locked for Mermaid? Anyway, it is an amazing performance by Mermaid.

Edited February 19, 2016 by jb007

[Olive]

Local movies and imported movies are neck to neck in fisrt tier cities(Beijing, shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen);

But, local movies crushes imported movies in smaller cities.

[Fake]

1 hour ago, jb007 said:

Projecting future sequels based on the performances of their predecessors has not really panned out that great in China for the most part. 

 

Is $500M locked for Mermaid? Anyway, it is an amazing performance by Mermaid.

Not yet.... this weekend, if it gets 400M+ then it will be locked. Needs at least 350M.