peludo Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 (edited) 21 minutes ago, weresweresweres said: Could you explain me something? According to Gavin Feng SM:H earned 41.5 in monday and had 501.1 in total, and in tuesday it was 33.5 and 535.3 in total. But 501.1+ 33.5 = 534.6 not 535.3 so i assume that after verification this movie earned slightly more in monday and this situation repeated in tuesday. So actual drops are better than this presented by Gavin. Am i right? (Of course i'm not criticize Gavin excellent work for this forum) He posts (pretty accurate) estimations. The total day data are not complete in that moment. Some theaters are accounted during upcoming days (if I am not wrong). Same happens in US: official data are not published until next morning. Edited September 13, 2017 by peludo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 (edited) $115-125m would 1.62-1.77x the $70.8m OW for SMH. If Apes gonna have similar legs hopefully it can do $52.5m OW / 1.71x = $90m total at least. (Using $52.5 cause it was POTUS's last estimate I think...$50-55m OW) Edited September 13, 2017 by a2knet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, a2knet said: $115-125m would 1.62-1.77x the $70.8m OW for SMH. If Apes gonna have similar legs hopefully it can do $52.5m OW / 1.71x = $90m total at least. (Using $52.5 cause it was POTUS's last estimate I think...$50-55m OW) Looks like OD presales for Apes will land in the 25-26 mill area. 90-95 mill OD and 325 mill OW is my best estimate right now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 that's the problem with China box office. When another blockbuster opens the previous one completely dies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiangsen Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Diana Prince said: So the number after the service fee is the true gross that counts toward revenue here in USA? Spider-Man is a monster. If it does 115, that is still excellent. I still hope for 140 for complete vindication for the movie. No matter what, it will probably end up in the top ten grossing movies of the year. Hollywood studios will report the "after service fee" gross because it's more eye-catching but they don't receive a penny of that, it all goes to third party ticketing apps in China. The true gross and the one to use as comparison is "before service fees" since they just started incorporating service fees this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Looks like 24-25 mill for SMH today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 15 hours ago, Diana Prince said: So the number after the service fee is the true gross that counts toward revenue here in USA? Spider-Man is a monster. If it does 115, that is still excellent. I still hope for 140 for complete vindication for the movie. No matter what, it will probably end up in the top ten grossing movies of the year. If you mean top 10 in China of the year that is impossible. The 12th film of the year is already Despicable me 3 with 1.038b Yuan ($158m with current ER). If it makes more than 758m Yuan (Buddies in India gross), what seems likely according what I am reading here, it will rank #13. But we are still in September. From now until the end of the year it will probably drop several spots in the yearly ranking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, peludo said: If you mean top 10 in China of the year that is impossible. The 12th film of the year is already Despicable me 3 with 1.038b Yuan ($158m with current ER). If it makes more than 758m Yuan (Buddies in India gross), what seems likely according what I am reading here, it will rank #13. But we are still in September. From now until the end of the year it will probably drop several spots in the yearly ranking. I think he meant worldwide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 16 hours ago, a2knet said: $115-125m would 1.62-1.77x the $70.8m OW for SMH. If Apes gonna have similar legs hopefully it can do $52.5m OW / 1.71x = $90m total at least. (Using $52.5 cause it was POTUS's last estimate I think...$50-55m OW) Apes wont have competition its second weekend, should hold better as long as its rating isnt under 8. SMH PS going to be down 30% for Friday Might be 17-19m friday. 80m weekend -82%. 775m total $118m 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Darth Lehnsherr said: I think he meant worldwide. If he means worldwide, he should not be worried about that. It is making close to $900m, over Wolf Warrior 2 right now (we still have to see if WW2 can make more relevant business outside China). If it ranks #4 or #5 after September, I do not see 6 or 7 films from now until the end of the year that can make it miss top 10 of the year. Just for reference, Suicide Squad ranked #10 in 2016 and did $745m, way behind than SMH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UserHN Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, peludo said: If he means worldwide, he should not be worried about that. It is making close to $900m, over Wolf Warrior 2 right now (we still have to see if WW2 can make more relevant business outside China). If it ranks #4 or #5 after September, I do not see 6 or 7 films from now until the end of the year that can make it miss top 10 of the year. Just for reference, Suicide Squad ranked #10 in 2016 and did $745m, way behind than SMH. I'm curious about the Chinese gross of Thor: Ragnarok. Are the Chinese people familiar with Thor? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 25 minutes ago, UserHN said: I'm curious about the Chinese gross of Thor: Ragnarok. Are the Chinese people familiar with Thor? The Dark World grossed 342m Yuan, a bit less than Man of Steel (394m) and less than half of Iron Man 3 (754m) if we talk about SH films in 2013. But this one has Hulk and Dr. Strange.... Maybe 600m (about 90m dollars) could be a good target for it. But there are people here who know the market way better than me. That is just my asumption. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scabab Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Is this going to make enough to pass Spider-man 3 worldwide? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awesomer Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 40 minutes ago, scabab said: Is this going to make enough to pass Spider-man 3 worldwide? I'm guessing it would need to make at least $131m in China. From what it looks like people are saying in this thread, that seems doubtful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 1 hour ago, scabab said: Is this going to make enough to pass Spider-man 3 worldwide? Slim chance at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 On 13/09/2017 at 5:49 AM, POTUS said: Its probably going to be in the $120m's Lets see the friday number. @ChinaBoxOffice is saying $90m up until this Thursday. Do you really think Homecoming will gross only $30m more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Something wrong with official box office system. War for the Planet midnight is over 9.2m, #3 import number in Sep behind SMH and MI5. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 SMH 23.5-24m on THU. Over $90 MILLION 7-day total 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 12 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: SMH 23.5-24m on THU. Over $90 MILLION 7-day total What's the multiplier should desirably have this Fri-Sun so it can break into $130m? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 51 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said: What's the multiplier should desirably have this Fri-Sun so it can break into $130m? Friday is looking to be down by 20-30% from thursday and that leaves SMH almost zero chance of 130 mill total Breaks my heart but no way around that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...