charlie Jatinder Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Olive said: midnight>1/3 OD, OD>1/3 OW, total =1.5 OW Let's see how it goes with ¥150mn midnight. MN 150 ok OD 450 ok OW 1350 (too low) Total 2000 (too low) I assume you meant OW as 5 days. If its FSS, that's gonna be too high. IMO OW = 4x OD Total = 1.5x OW Edited April 13, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Olive said: midnight>1/3 OD, OD>1/3 OW, total =1.5 OW Ok, how high are you saying it's midnight will be? I'm expecting around 100M and just don't see it being 33%+ of OD since OD presales by end of today will be about even with it. I'll give you there is potential for heavy front loading towards M/N and OD but I don't see it on OD itself. Edited April 13, 2019 by druv10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, druv10 said: Ok, how high are you saying it's midnight will be? I'm expecting around 100M and just don't see it being 33%+ of OD since OD presales by end of today will be about even with it. I'll give you there is potential for heavy front loading towards M/N and OD but I don't see it on OD itself. MN being 1/3rd of OD is not really too crazy notion. At this point, I am expecting 50k shows at higher end for MN, that will be 1/4th of OD. MN has higher ATP and will have higher occupancies. Easy 1/3rd. Though that said, MN could be $18-25mn IMO. Edited April 13, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: MN being 1/3rd of OD is not really too crazy notion. At this point, I am expecting 50k shows at higher end for MN, that will be 1/4th of OD. MN has higher ATP and will have higher occupancies. Easy 1/3rd. Though that said, MN could be $18-25mn IMO. it won't that many showtimes, at best 3k-35k(about 50% national sceen count). use 80 average attendance, 45 ticket price Edited April 13, 2019 by Olive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: MN being 1/3rd of OD is not really too crazy notion. At this point, I am expecting 50k shows at higher end for MN, that will be 1/4th of OD. MN has higher ATP and will have higher occupancies. Easy 1/3rd. Though that said, MN could be $18-25mn IMO. Ok but is he expecting 125-170M midnight. If he is than yes it'll be more than a third of OD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Olive said: it won't that much showtimes, at best 3k-35k(about 50% national sceen count). use 80 average attendance, 45 ticket price Do midnight means just one show at one screen? I think more shows can be added but yeah taking your word for it, you would know better. But that bring me to the point that if MN is just ¥126mn, (35k * 80 * 45), that will mean ¥380mn Day 1 (understandable) but only ¥1040mn 5 days (or you wanna correct OW=3x OD?) and ¥1600mn full run. @Olive Edited April 13, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Do midnight means just one show at one screen? I think more shows can be added but yeah taking your word for it, you would know better. Only IMAX has 3"30am shows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 ¥65 midnight ATP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 So is something like this feasible.... ¥120m ¥380m ¥220m ¥330m ¥370m ¥190m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: ¥65 midnight ATP It will be adjust down, that's not accurate 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: So is something like this feasible.... ¥120m ¥380m ¥220m ¥330m ¥370m ¥190m Possible. That would be on absolute low end of my expectations. I would be bit disappointed as well. Just want OD and Saturday over 400 and Sunday to hold over 200. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Possible. That would be on absolute low end of my expectations. I would be bit disappointed as well. Just want OD and Saturday over 400 and Sunday to hold over 200. I’m trying to rein in my numbers and expectations. I don’t want to get on this $270m hype train then be mad if it “only” hits $230m. Edited April 13, 2019 by VenomXXR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: I’m trying to rein in my numbers and expectations. I don’t want to get on this $270m hype train then be mad if it “only” hits $230m. 230 will be actually be mad-some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 13 hours ago, a2k said: 21% bump for Shazam on Friday for 7.5 Fri, 247+ cume. Guessing 15-20 on Sat and Sun combined for 22.5-27.5 2nd weekend and 262-267 10-day. On track for 300 ($45) total. Saturday I doubt it heading anywhere near 20. We'll see thus far it's at 5.9 million at 235pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 1 hour ago, cdsacken said: Saturday I doubt it heading anywhere near 20. We'll see thus far it's at 5.9 million at 235pm. He said sat and sunday combined. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 (edited) Maoyan's pre-sales have been stuck for hours. :whine: Edited April 13, 2019 by TalismanRing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 1 minute ago, TalismanRing said: Maoyan's been stuck for hours. :whine: That means a bigger jump after that. Besides, its still 10 days out. The previous record for 10 days out was ¥3.5mn and Endgame has done ¥22mn so far today for OD. In fact, TFS has increase higher than T-10 days record. What I am trying to say is, it actually might be getting back to bit normalcy now. May be it will start getting 2-3x of IW dailies soon just like it did in USA after crazy first three days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: That means a bigger jump after that. Besides, its still 10 days out. The previous record for 10 days out was ¥3.5mn and Endgame has done ¥22mn so far today for OD. In fact, TFS has increase higher than T-10 days record. What I am trying to say is, it actually might be getting back to bit normalcy now. May be it will start getting 2-3x of IW dailies soon just like it did in USA after crazy first three days. so less crazy but stil crazy got it its funny when we consider for endgame 2* iw a little normal this is ridiculous i cant wait too see what will happen in the week of release Edited April 13, 2019 by john2000 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, cdsacken said: Saturday I doubt it heading anywhere near 20. We'll see thus far it's at 5.9 million at 235pm. Looking to be around 13-15 today, depending on strength tonight, already surpassing Maoyan’s estimates for the day. 15 will be a 100% bump, and will be great. Gaining back more showtimes tomorrow as well. Edited April 13, 2019 by TigerPaw 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 (edited) 29 minutes ago, TigerPaw said: Looking to be around 13-15 today, depending on strength tonight, already surpassing Maoyan’s estimates for the day. 15 will be a 100% bump, and will be great. Gaining back more showtimes tomorrow as well. Yeah I think 15 is possible. 4 hours left and it's at 11.9 right now. Nice to see it holding better much later like CM did. think 1.4 legs might happen. Edited April 13, 2019 by cdsacken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...