China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[adaros]

Saw this on reddit:
http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/daily/

 

[adaros]

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-opening-china-global-international-box-office-1235198763/

"In China, The Way of Water had been planned for 3,000 showings at 7pm local today, but ended up doing just 1,688 screenings per our information. This is a result of the ongoing Covid issues in the market where 73% of cinemas are open and there is a confidence issue amid the about-face from the government on the zero-Covid policy. The resultant sneaks, before official opening on Friday, were worth RMB 20M ($2.9M). We wrote yesterday that $100M was possible in China this opening weekend; we are now taking a more cautious stance, even if hope springs. Douban and Maoyan critical and social scores have not yet posted. "

[Issac Newton]

WED - ¥17,968,200 ($2.58M) in 1983 shows

 

THU looks critical. Maoyan &Taopiaopiao Projection are ¥15.91M &¥18.13M respectively on 12K shows

[xieh tie]

 

[XXR & Friends]

When can we expect Maoyan, Douban and Taopiaopiao scores to start showing up?

 

[Gavin Feng]

18 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

When can we expect Maoyan, Douban and Taopiaopiao scores to start showing up?

 

 

Friday night I guess. 

[Borobudur]

5 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

WED - ¥17,968,200 ($2.58M) in 1983 shows

 

THU looks critical. Maoyan &Taopiaopiao Projection are ¥15.91M &¥18.13M respectively on 12K shows

Pass ¥18m already. On par with Wed's limited show. Consider it a win? 

[Issac Newton]

7 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Pass ¥18m already. On par with Wed's limited show. Consider it a win? 

Yesterday, projection too reached ¥23M/¥20M in Taopiaopiao/Maoyan respectively, but actuals has fallen behind..

 

Actuals will speak if it's win or lose 

[LPLC]

 

We can say goodbye to the $2B

[Issac Newton]

Maoyan Forecast

 

OD / OW / Final

 

¥256M / ¥863M / ¥2511M

 

True OD - ¥220M

[Flamengo81]

9 minutes ago, LPLC said:

 

We can say goodbye to the $2B

How exactly? 

 

This doomposting is really annoying...

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Flamengo81 said:

How exactly? 

 

This doomposting is really annoying...

 

LPLC has a habit of dealing in absolutes but I wouldn't say it's "doomposting". If China comes in under $300M, that means DOM + OS-C-R would need $1.7B+ for $2B. Right now I'd say DOM is looking like $600-650M so we would still need good numbers in every other OS market to get over $2B. 

 

[JustLurking]

It's hyperbolic to say 2b is out but it definitely is not to suggest the possibility. Hell, I said it this morning even. This will need very strong legs if it wants to get 2b.

[Gkalaitza]

I mean it may do less than Aquaman and it will be disappointing but there is important  context missing about the current situation in China and the social dynamics and covid related factors that would lead to that underperformance.It seems that way too me . It seems like it indeed got a bad placement and it opening in this crucial ,winter no less,  month of China changing Covid approaches substantialy will be for the worse for Avatar BO even compared to opening during Zero Covid but with Shanghai and Benjing out of large scale lockdown like some movies managed these last couple of years

[Gkalaitza]

18 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Maoyan Forecast

 

OD / OW / Final

 

¥256M / ¥863M / ¥2511M

 

True OD - ¥220M

Are Maoyan final Forcasts relatively accurate ? This is noticably better than i thought actually. I was thinking sub $100m OW and ~$250m Overall 

[Issac Newton]

Just now, Gkalaitza said:

Are Maoyan final Forcasts relatively accurate ? This is noticably better than i thought actually. I was thinking sub $100m OW and ~$250m Overall 

~90% accurate!

 

Change everyday when it's match or not daily projection 

[LPLC]

7 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

LPLC has a habit of dealing in absolutes but I wouldn't say it's "doomposting". If China comes in under $300M, that means DOM + OS-C-R would need $1.7B+ for $2B. Right now I'd say DOM is looking like $600-650M so we would still need good numbers in every other OS market to get over $2B. 

 

Why me ? This is not my tweet and i'm just saying the same thing as a lot of people on twitter and on BOT.

[Nero]

@charlie Jatinder give us latest update 😤

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Gkalaitza said:

Are Maoyan final Forcasts relatively accurate ? This is noticably better than i thought actually. I was thinking sub $100m OW and ~$250m Overall 

Given the way things have gone I would take them with a bit of salt honestly. If the covid fear is this real I expect things will only get worse after OW (if people are so afraid on OW those on the fence will definitely be even harder to draw out in these conditions).

 

I do not know if there is any truth to lackluster reception in China but if it is true I would certainly go under that maoyan number by a lot.

[Gkalaitza]

8 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Given the way things have gone I would take them with a bit of salt honestly. If the covid fear is this real I expect things will only get worse after OW (if people are so afraid on OW those on the fence will definitely be even harder to draw out in these conditions).

 

I do not know if there is any truth to lackluster reception in China but if it is true I would certainly go under that maoyan number by a lot.

Yeah my understanding is that Covid fear,uncertainty and surge are an all time high rn and thats whats making the biggest impact by far. But actually its likely that weekdays and legs will benifit from that. People are afraid of going in a closed space with 100+ people in full (restrictions included) capacity in the OW. But even if things arent better in the coming weeks covid wise , each screening will be much less packed and populated 6/10/15 days in so people will probably that didnt attent earlier due to that fear may be more likely to

Edited December 15, 2022 by Gkalaitza