Infernus Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 This is so so disappointing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 1 hour ago, The Good Olive said: No way. If it doesn't hit 1.5B then it has no shot at top 5 and will barely finish inside top 10 for the year. Absolutely shocking result after what KFP2 did but I'm gonna wait until 2nd weekend hold before throwing my final judgment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Was Minions OD a sunday or a friday? that also is a factor. I think KFP3 OW could beat Minions total or will come close. So this does not matter. But KFP3 total wont be close to expectations. Even I expected 200m and I am among the most conservative. Minions was sunday 1 hour ago, The Good Olive said: No way. I wouldn't count 1.5b out yet unless you know something about early word of mouth. Was it "our times" that opened small, 40m, against big competition during Oct holiday and wound up close to 1.5b. Anything could happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
movieboner Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 First of all, KP3 won't play like an imported film where it only has a 1 month theatrical run. KP3 will play like a domestic Chinese film where it's theatrical run can extend to 3 months and won't lose screens quickly. It's has high chance of grossing $200 million. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 49 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: Minions was sunday I wouldn't count 1.5b out yet unless you know something about early word of mouth. Was it "our times" that opened small, 40m, against big competition during Oct holiday and wound up close to 1.5b. Anything could happen. TMK is another example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 WOM is good but not great, so it won't affect the legs much. Chinese new year eve is on next Sunday, theater only open 4-5 hours on that day and some even will be closed for whole day. Four big movies on CHinese new Years day including another local animated movie, it will be KFP3's direct competitor. My projection until CNY eve: 107/152 145 120 55 50 45 45 55 75 30 total to date 770. My optimistic projection put it under 800M yuan until next Sunday, It will have less than 5% showtimes on CNY(early showtimes only 1%) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 2 hours ago, druv10 said: TMK is another example. it's in summer holiday.nothing can compare with TMK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I dont think we can compar with our times or TMK. I dont think they faced so much competition after 10 days. KFP3 needs at least 10% of screens post CNY to have a great run. I think that is improbable unless it has incredible holds next week and then all openers disappoint. I think that is almost unlikely. Olive, how are presales for CNY openers. Mermaid should open huge right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: I dont think we can compar with our times or TMK. I dont think they faced so much competition after 10 days. KFP3 needs at least 10% of screens post CNY to have a great run. I think that is improbable unless it has incredible holds next week and then all openers disappoint. I think that is almost unlikely. Olive, how are presales for CNY openers. Mermaid should open huge right? On maoyan: TMK2 12.7m Mermaid 12.5m Macau 3 7.9m Monster Nian 2.5m KFP3 120k 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 how big Feb 8th will be. Will we see 500m+ day overall BO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 1t 1015 maoyan is lower than cbooo today!!! 35.4m vs 49.3m. Either way its lower than yesterday but I am assuming yesterday's numbers were boosted by pre-sales for the evening. This will see bigger increase. But Olive is going to be right on saturday increase. it could miss 400m OW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 Agreed with Olive's projection. After Panda 3 tradedy, I don't think any more local tentpole will ever open in the week before CNY. Its such a bad time: coldest days of the winter, people busy travelling and buying things, CNY players will reset the market no matter how well holdovers are playing. I dont think even a TF film can survive the CNY atmosphere, if it were released one/two weeks before CNY. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 So it may even miss TMK's number !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 The summer is pretty empty. I wonder why they didnt release it in the summer. People are more used to watch animations during summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 (edited) 1 hour ago, firedeep said: The summer is pretty empty. I wonder why they didnt release it in the summer. People are more used to watch animations during summer. I think Dreamworks was hoping that Jay Chou's voice, MV.. or Jackie's voice coupled with the other chinese actors voice-over and the mandarin version would blow people's mind off. They must also be looking at FF7 and Transformers and thinking how huge the China market has become, and got impatient. They also wanted to ride the Wave of Lunar New Year, thinking Word of Mouth would carry it througout the spring festival, but they failed to take into account theater and screen counts during CNY. (But on the other end, it would probably do very well in US since competition in this period is almost non-existent, not forgetting if it comes out during Summer worldwide, it will face TMNT2, Finding Dory, Warcraft affecting its overseas BO etc) I think none of us really thought it would underperform... I honestly thought KFP3 will be huge, and might beat one of the 3 CNY movies. I thought Monkey King 2 will be the weakest of the 3, with Mermaid being easily the top and Macau 3 being 2nd, but according to pre-sales, MK2 might be top. All 3 CNY movies will beat KFP3 in total gross imo, and MK2 might be the champion.... what a turn of events. Edited January 30, 2016 by TigerPaw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 50 minutes ago, TigerPaw said: I think Dreamworks was hoping that Jay Chou's voice, MV.. or Jackie's voice coupled with the other chinese actors voice-over and the mandarin version would blow people's mind off. They must also be looking at FF7 and Transformers and thinking how huge the China market has become, and got impatient. They also wanted to ride the Wave of Lunar New Year, thinking Word of Mouth would carry it througout the spring festival, but they failed to take into account theater and screen counts during CNY. (But on the other end, it would probably do very well in US since competition in this period is almost non-existent, not forgetting if it comes out during Summer worldwide, it will face TMNT2, Finding Dory, Warcraft affecting its overseas BO etc) I think none of us really thought it would underperform... I honestly thought KFP3 will be huge, and might beat one of the 3 CNY movies. I thought Monkey King 2 will be the weakest of the 3, with Mermaid being easily the top and Macau 3 being 2nd, but according to pre-sales, MK2 might be top. All 3 CNY movies will beat KFP3 in total gross imo, and MK2 might be the champion.... what a turn of events. Competition is everywhere. The film itself has to be strong. KFP3 is now in March except China, US, Russia and Korea, etc. Zootopia looks to eat it alive in March. Poor Po. Ideally, Pixar's FD in May, KFP3 in June, IA5 and Angry Bird in July, Secret Pets in August, that would be okay, in terms of animation market situation. But now, $150m-ish (not settled yet, but thats probably it...) in China is just bad, Russia and Korea openings are underwhelming too, a $40m some opening in NA is nothing excellent. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: how big Feb 8th will be. Will we see 500m+ day overall BO. I am hoping for 600m+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 (edited) At this rate, can KFP3 still match KFP2 $600m worldwide gross ? Poor DWA, cant catch a break.... ODW has a crew of nearly 300 people in Shanghai. if KFP3 only does 1B yuan in China, the money it makes won't even be enough to cover ODW's operation expenses in the past three years, let alone to secure investments for their future projects. They will have to continue burning money from the outside, in millions. Edited January 30, 2016 by firedeep 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 16 minutes ago, firedeep said: At this rate, can KFP3 still match KFP2 $600m worldwide gross ? Poor DWA, cant catch a break.... ODW has a crew of nearly 300 people in Shanghai. if KFP3 only does 1B yuan in China, the money it makes won't even be enough to cover ODW's operation expenses in the past three years, let alone to secure investments for their future projects. They will have to continue burning money from the outside, in millions. It's looking like around $150 million domestic based on OW estimates. If China also only does $150 million, it still needs $365 million to match KFP2's gross. KFP2 did $408 million OS minus China but with much better exchange rates. And of course as you mentioned, Zootopia is competing with it in the markets with a March release. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lihongkim Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: So it may even miss TMK's number !!!! Maybe...Consider that It won't have great leg like TMK. TMK is a sleep hit. Definitely, it didn't have huge OW. It needs good WOM to attract fans. Plus, it had benefit from summer release + powerful WOM. KFP3 is expected hit, it should have huge OW. It has huge fans base. They would rush to watch it during its OW. If its OW is underperformed, I don't think it will have great leg. 2 hours ago, TigerPaw said: I honestly thought KFP3 will be huge, and might beat one of the 3 CNY movies. I thought Monkey King 2 will be the weakest of the 3, with Mermaid being easily the top and Macau 3 being 2nd, but according to pre-sales, MK2 might be top. All 3 CNY movies will beat KFP3 in total gross imo, and MK2 might be the champion.... what a turn of events. It's the year of Monkey, so Monkey King has privilege. Btw, its quality (special effect) is quite better than the first one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
