China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[druv10]

No prisoners, you've been spot on so far. What is you're prediction for the next 4days?

[KP1025]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

http://111.205.151.7/movies/2016-02-04

 

KFP3 - 42.51m

 

 

It seems this site is usually several million behind Maoyan. 

[efialtes76]

17 minutes ago, druv10 said:

No prisoners, you've been spot on so far. What is you're prediction for the next 4days?

 

Maybe...

 

Fri:50M

Sat:65M

Sun:25M

Mon:10M

[TigerPaw]

47 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

 

Maybe...

 

Fri:50M

Sat:65M

Sun:25M

Mon:10M

Wow that monday...

[POTUS 2020]

7 hours ago, druv10 said:

No prisoners, you've been spot on so far. What is you're prediction for the next 4days?

 

6 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Wow that monday...

...is ridiculously low....

 

Pre-sales indicate little or no bump for friday.  Saturday may be a full on work day that China likes to do before a holiday. IDK. So may not be a big bump. Sunday should drop 60% from sat like last year. As far as monday,  Pre-sales usually quadruple on the last day for a holdover. The are nearly a 1m now and the days total has been 4x presales. That puts it at 16m so far with 2 more days of presales creeping up before the quad up on sunday as shows are added. Shows are at 2.9%, have doubled in 3 days and will at least double again. 

45m Fri

60-70m sat depending on work

20-25m sun

30m minimum Monday, that's just 5% of the potential total BO.

Holds close to Mondays number thru sunday and could even increase if 1 or 2 of the openers fade hard.

700m-720m this sunday.

920m minimum by next sunday, could be much more depending on show % and the openers. 1B+ possible at 40m per day average.

 

Last year CNY started on a wed. It opened to 370m total BO and averaged 300m for the next 5 days. Then averaged close to 200m for the next 6 days. Not sure how the work days will fall and if there will be a 12 day effect or not.  Either way it will reach 1B by the following weekend..

 

Edited February 4, 2016 by No Prisoners

[a2k]

So 1b (150m usd) looks like a lock.

[Polaroids]

Yeah I think Mermaid is going to win first day too because of a lot of combinations - Stephen Chow, Deng Chao, Show Luo and Kris Wu have huge fanbases and influence in the mainland (lesser so in other countries). Tsui Hark will have a cameo in the movie too. Its hold will depend on quality and WOM. Bad CGI aside, the last trailer did leave me intrigued especially since it was so different from the first one. Stephen's refusal to give anything away is worrying though. The BTS video does make the film look like a comedy.

 

The reviews for TMK2 are interesting. Wasn't planning on watching it because the first was, to put it mildly, awful.. but I'm gonna give this a try now.

Edited February 5, 2016 by Polaroids

[Olive]

I Don't see increase on Saturday, people will celebrate with family eating and playing.

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

 

...is ridiculously low....

 

Pre-sales indicate little or no bump for friday.  Saturday may be a full on work day that China likes to do before a holiday. IDK. So may not be a big bump. Sunday should drop 60% from sat like last year. As far as monday,  Pre-sales usually quadruple on the last day for a holdover. The are nearly a 1m now and the days total has been 4x presales. That puts it at 16m so far with 2 more days of presales creeping up before the quad up on sunday as shows are added. Shows are at 2.9%, have doubled in 3 days and will at least double again. 

45m Fri

60-70m sat depending on work

20-25m sun

30m minimum Monday, that's just 5% of the potential total BO.

Holds close to Mondays number thru sunday and could even increase if 1 or 2 of the openers fade hard.

700m-720m this sunday.

920m minimum by next sunday, could be much more depending on show % and the openers. 1B+ possible at 40m per day average.

 

Last year CNY started on a wed. It opened to 370m total BO and averaged 300m for the next 5 days. Then averaged close to 200m for the next 6 days. Not sure how the work days will fall and if there will be a 12 day effect or not.  Either way it will reach 1B by the following weekend..

 

 

No Prisoners is very good at this but I disagree it will be able to get 5% of BO with 5% of screenings. It will not have optimal screens and will probably have lost all premium shows. Generally movies with low screenings tend to have smaller share of BO relative to BO while movies with large amount of screenings tend to do even better than the count. I think KFP3 will do 3% of BO on monday which should translate to 18m based on 600m day.

[POTUS 2020]

34 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

No Prisoners is very good at this but I disagree it will be able to get 5% of BO with 5% of screenings. It will not have optimal screens and will probably have lost all premium shows. Generally movies with low screenings tend to have smaller share of BO relative to BO while movies with large amount of screenings tend to do even better than the count. I think KFP3 will do 3% of BO on monday which should translate to 18m based on 600m day.

TMK had 14% shows and 14% market share on its second weekend when it went up against MH and JBL on a 425m Saturday.  If this is the only movie that the youngest demo will see it will have an audience. It could fall short on the 8th with the hype of the openers but maintain par or better with the WOM rating it has on the following days.  I still think it will be 7%+ though.

[KP1025]

3 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

TMK had 14% shows and 14% market share on its second weekend when it went up against MH and JBL on a 425m Saturday.  If this is the only movie that the youngest demo will see it will have an audience. It could fall short on the 8th with the hype of the openers but maintain par or better with the WOM rating it has on the following days.  I still think it will be 7%+ though.

 

Will have to see how Mr Nian is received. If good, it could attract some of the younger audience away from KFP3.

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

TMK had 14% shows and 14% market share on its second weekend when it went up against MH and JBL on a 425m Saturday.  If this is the only movie that the youngest demo will see it will have an audience. It could fall short on the 8th with the hype of the openers but maintain par or better with the WOM rating it has on the following days.  I still think it will be 7%+ though.

 

I think if KFP hits > 10% screens then it can do better. now its too low and peak timings shows are even lower(almost 80% Of shows are already booked). Based on pre-sales I am expecting the top 3 to add even more shows. Its still quite low for blockbusters and so they will do really good on tickets sold per screenings. So I think holds for the openers will be good considering its a holiday week. But if KFP3 can outlast the openers then it could have a lengthy run ahead and may be crack 1.2B?

[Lihongkim]

22 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

Will have to see how Mr Nian is received. If good, it could attract some of the younger audience away from KFP3.

Ning Hao is so confident in Mr. Nian. Who know, Mr. Nian probably has good WOM > KFP3.

 

1 hour ago, Polaroids said:

Yeah I think Mermaid is going to win first day too because of a lot of combinations - Stephen Chow, Deng Chao, Show Luo and Kris Wu have huge fanbases and influence in the mainland (lesser so in other countries). Tsui Hark will have a cameo in the movie too. Its hold will depend on quality and WOM. Bad CGI aside, the last trailer did leave me intrigued especially since it was so different from the first one. Stephen's refusal to give anything away is worrying though.

 

The reviews for TMK2 are interesting. Wasn't planning on watching it because the first was, to put it mildly, awful.. but I'm gonna give this a try now.

JTTW is also bad CGI but since it's Stephen Chow's movie, comedy is everything to do with it. It should happen again to Mermaid. I think audiences won't care much about its CGI. They just want to see new style of his comedy. When s.o mention Stephen Chow, the only thing appear in my mind is comedy. 

[POTUS 2020]

5 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

Will have to see how Mr Nian is received. If good, it could attract some of the younger audience away from KFP3.

So that is the 4th opener I assume at 4.7m. Pre-sales have not been growing like the other 3. That may only be 20-30m

It's pre-sales are half of its show percentage and is losing show percentage rapidly.

Edited February 5, 2016 by No Prisoners

[keysersoze123]

It appears we will not see any boost today. I am assuming even saturday increase will be small. Sunday drop will be big. So the real deal starts monday when 4 openers including 3 big ones releases. Hopefully we see record BO and KFP3 holding well as well.

[Fake]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It appears we will not see any boost today. I am assuming even saturday increase will be small. Sunday drop will be big. So the real deal starts monday when 4 openers including 3 big ones releases. Hopefully we see record BO and KFP3 holding well as well.

There should be a boost.... albeit not a large one..... 48-50M probably.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

It appears we will not see any boost today. I am assuming even saturday increase will be small. Sunday drop will be big. So the real deal starts monday when 4 openers including 3 big ones releases. Hopefully we see record BO and KFP3 holding well as well.

Yup won't be much. At 22m now. The midpoint on the day has been 2pm but it should be 230-3pm being that it is a friday. May just be upper 40s, 5-10% increase at best

 

Total pre-sales at 150m now for Monday and climbing fast.  Total will be about 2.25x. That puts it at 330m. It will definitely clear 500m. The record is 425m.

KFP3 up to 3.3%. Presales at 1.05m. When multiplied out x16 it comes close to 3.3% of potential market share. As shows are added the PS will climb accordingly. It will hold par.

Edited February 5, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Lex Luthor's Wig]

21 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Rumours from who?

 Weibo observers...god knows if true.

[Lex Luthor's Wig]

8 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

Will have to see how Mr Nian is received. If good, it could attract some of the younger audience away from KFP3.

Mr. Nian looks terrible...but that hasn't stopped certain films from doing well the last year.

[Lex Luthor's Wig]

How is KFP3 going Chinese New Year in China going to affect its run in countries prone to piracy?  Seems like a disjointed gambit, or is it because Fox wanted to preserve CNY slot to its own Deadpool and/or Alvin?  and ODW couldn't care less for these pictures?  KFP3 just feels like the perfect CNY vehicle to sweep families off their feet specially where Chinese New Year is observed.