China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[keysersoze123]

Tf5 could do at least 2.5x multi of ow with summer weekdays and no competition.

[ymblcza]

15 minutes ago, POTUS said:

I think most schools are out.

still many haven't 

[Gavin Feng]

MON estimates
 
before service charges
Alien: Covenant  -  21.2m / 206.6m
The Mummy  -  11.8m / 534.9m
Wonder Woman  -  6.81m / 541.6m
Pirates 5  -  4.38m / 1,089m
Dangal  -  3.46m / 1,169m

 

after service charges

Alien: Covenant  -  22.7m / 221.5m
The Mummy  -  12.6m / 570.4m
Wonder Woman  -  7.3m / 577.6m
Pirates 5  -  4.7m / 1,164m
Dangal  -  3.75m / 1,268m

 

[The Dark Alfred]

Mummy is actually having ok legs in China, will overtake WW soon.

[zackzack]

Is Boss Baby still opening in China?  Or cancelled?

[jiangsen]

2 hours ago, zackzack said:

Is Boss Baby still opening in China?  Or cancelled?

It was never opening in China. 

[Gavin Feng]

2 hours ago, zackzack said:

Is Boss Baby still opening in China?  Or cancelled?

SARFT didn’t give their permission to this film because it probably could not make much money. 

[Gavin Feng]

TUE estimates
 
before service charges
Alien: Covenant  -  17.4m / 223.7m
The Mummy  -  11.1m / 546m
Wonder Woman  -  6.37m / 547.8m
Pirates 5  -  4.31m / 1,093m
Dangal  -  3.26m / 1,173m

 

after service charges

Alien: Covenant  -  18.8m / 240.5m
The Mummy  -  12m / 582.6m
Wonder Woman  -  6.85m / 584.4m
Pirates 5  -  4.65m / 1,168m
Dangal  -  3.55m / 1,271m

[Gavin Feng]

Transformers: The Last Knight [2 days + 2 hours]
MN  -  10.52m (11,204)
FRI  -  39.20m (108,421)
SAT  -  22.05m (83,679)
SUN  -  10.39m (72,764)

 

Fate of the Furious [2 days + 2 hours]
MN  -  20.39m (11,331) 
FRI  -  78.34m (110,804) 
SAT  -  37.49m (85,063) 
SUN  -  14.20m (73,184)

 

JTTW2 [2 days + 2 hours]

OD  -  75.19m (88.1k)

 

Warcraft [2 days]

MN  -  27.15m (9,993)

OD  -  50.71m (67,651)

[a2k]

54 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Transformers: The Last Knight [2 days + 2 hours]
MN  -  10.52m (11,204)
FRI  -  39.20m (108,421)
SAT  -  22.05m (83,679)
SUN  -  10.39m (72,764)

 

Fate of the Furious [2 days + 2 hours]
MN  -  20.39m (11,331) 
FRI  -  78.34m (110,804) 
SAT  -  37.49m (85,063) 
SUN  -  14.20m (73,184)

 

TF5 is

MN - 51.6% of F8 (¥62.89/$9.14) = ¥32.45/$4.75

FRI - 50% of F8 (¥421.24/$61.20) = ¥210.62/$30.85

SAT - 58.8% of F8 (¥506.10/$73.52) = ¥297.58/$43.59

SUN - 73.2% of F8 (¥387.27/$56.26) = ¥283.48/$41.53

 

Gives TF5 an OW of $120.72 which is obviously too low as it's looking close to $150 according to you guys really good at tracking the China BO.

So it will rise that much faster than F8 from now till OW?

Edited June 20, 2017 by a2knet

[Gavin Feng]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

TF5 is

MN - 51.6% of F8 (¥62.89/$9.14) = ¥32.45/$4.75

FRI - 50% of F8 (¥421.24/$61.20) = ¥210.62/$30.85

SAT - 58.8% of F8 (¥506.10/$73.52) = ¥297.58/$43.59

SUN - 73.2% of F8 (¥387.27/$56.26) = ¥283.48/$41.53

 

Gives TF5 an OW of $120.72 which is obviously too low as it's looking close to $150 according to you guys really good at tracking the China BO.

So it will rise that much faster than F8 from now till OW?

It already happened on MON and TUE if this really can do faster.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

It already happened on MON and TUE if this really can do faster.

ok, that's good to hear. what's the reason for some movies picking up later than others? is it just random...i know POTC5 early pre-sales were very good and then it failed to keep it at that high-levels even though it did well eventually.

Edited June 20, 2017 by a2knet

[POTUS 2020]

11 hours ago, a2knet said:

ok, that's good to hear. what's the reason for some movies picking up later than others? is it just random...i know POTC5 early pre-sales were very good and then it failed to keep it at that high-levels even though it did well eventually.

Depends on when they start selling tickets.

Kong P5 and BatB started 14 days out, averaged 22% until the final 3 days

FF8 PS started 12 days out and averaged 30% daily increases 

TF5 started 10days out and will average 35%.

Last year they usually released 8 days out and average 40%.

The last 3 days is usually 40, 50, 75%. FF8 had a lot of sellouts so was much lower. WW started just 6 days out ramped up 100% at the end. 

 

 

 

 

[MattW]

Remember fast 8 ended up doing significantly less than presales seemed to indicate compared to other blockbuster movies, about 20-25% less (i recall many Force Awakens US/Can comparisons). TF may have Fast type walkups but it could very well line up more with other non-F&F blockbusters

[ymblcza]

4/30/37/31=¥1020($150) OW and $360 total seems reasonable.

 

presale really suffered today, now i'd change my preduction to 4/29/35/29=$142 OW and $330 total.

Edited June 21, 2017 by ymblcza

[keysersoze123]

it has to explode on friday. Otherwise its going to be 1st major sequel to decrease in China(I am talking in yuan). 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Things are looking increasingly bad for TF5: muted online buzz——franchise fatigue finally is real it seems, even in China, and it feels totally not like what it was before TF4 released, low presales——only running 50% of FF8 at the this time point, bad weather——rainstorm (history-record level rainstorms reported to be...) to cover the most parts of China as TF5 opens, as well as rumors that TF5 consists of 80% Bay-character develepment and 20% action scenes——yes people are actually afraid of not enough action in a Transformers film, and Optimus Prime only has 15 minutes in the movie (Bumblebee is the favourite of Bay and Paramount but it is OP who is the most popular TF character in China). 

 

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

it has to explode on friday. Otherwise its going to be 1st major sequel to decrease in China(I am talking in yuan). 

 

TF fanboys has already accepted the possibility of TF5 decreasing from TF4 in yuan...

 

The question is, what does it mean if that happens? If TF5 decreases even in China, then it probably would be deceasing 50%in most markets, maybe as much as 67% in some markets, transforming into a 500m~600m WW under-performer... a case even worse than POTC5, more in line with Ice Age 5; The 2018 scheduled Bumblebee film would be cancelled.

 

Let's hope the presales prove wrong...

[John Marston]

when is the main competition for TF5? Since it has school holidays and if no competition I am sure it is going to end up with a fine gross

 

[ymblcza]

I can't see it decrease from the previous one even 0.01% possibility at this point.

[Ash Skywalker]

When is the Apes releasing and what are your predictions for it?