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China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

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Spider-Man opens MAy 4th. I hear this is not a great release date but does it have a lot of competition? Is it getting marketed there?

Date is not that good but competition is fairly loose. Only big local release is Zhang Yimou's Return on May 17. Then Godzilla one week later (May middle 20s). Columbia are positively pushing it in China. Most box office observers I know set the (early) expectation at $90m~100m+ for it, a little bit higher than CA2.

 

 

Good increase for the first quarter!I hope summer and spring boxoffice numbers are good so that the percentage increase is up to 40% by midyear!

With an improved summer schedule, hopefully, than last year, the rate should back to 30%+ after summer (end of Aug) but 40% seems out of reach.

 

Last year, June and first half July was pretty much wasted.

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Riding on QingMing, Captian America Poised to Save China Theaters from Downturn
 
The Winter may be gone, but it's been a cold time for Chinese cinemas for the past few weeks, with weekly revenue crawling in the low 300m range. Although March still managed a respectable 16.8% increase over the same month from last year, the average income per screening actually dropped signficently, as 5000 more screens had been added during the year-long period. Box office gross has come to the dreadful 20~25m range on certain weekdays, which means less than 8 tickets sold per show on average, comparing to the 210~255m daily take when the market was at its peak just one-and-half month ago during Spring Festival.That's how unstable and unmature the market still is: in less than 40 days, it riddled through climax and icing point, shrinking more than 90%. 
 
Besides movies themselves, the big secret of China box office, as we explained earlier, is holidays, governmental ones or private ones. The fast growing market is heavily holiday-driven and that creates huge uncertain factors for box office predictions. We know how the lowest valley looks like but we never know how much the market could rebound when the next high tide comes.
 
Granted, QingMing (清明), despite also being three-day, is more in line with DuanWu (端午)in June and no match to May Day holiday (五一)when it comes to tourism or movie going. Daily gross has never touched the 100m mark during QingMing (highest being last year with 97m). However, we belive it can see amazing outbreaks similarly to May One, October One or Chinese New Year, when it reacts with the right movie. And that movie finally shows itself up this year.
 
The Winter Solider wont be one of the phenomenal movies that will make up for whatever lost theaters had in the downturn season. But as the biggest Hollywood release this year so far, it qualifies enough to be the world saver theater owners have been longing for, at least temporarily. And by return, they will offer Captain America enough screenings, like 40%, A+ level opening. Yes, by biggest Hollywood release this year so far, it has to be bigger than current foreign champion Smaug. And the OW of Smaug of 201m is the benchmark where we start to predict how will Cap perform his mission. Along with his precious shield, Cap has got a few other favors.
 
    [*]QingMing. Of course. CA2 is the first Hollywood big movie to fully take advantage of a public holiday in China in a long time. All eyes on how it turns out. Not considering movies playing in theaters, generally speaking: holiday weekend > holiday weekday > normal weekend > working weekend > working weekday. Cap's got one working Friday, two days of holiday weekend and one holiday Monday in its first 4 days. [*]  [*]High quality, 93% rottentomatoes score, lots of actions and effects set in mordern time, the kind of movie that has a broader audience than a soso Middle Earth saga. [*]  [*]Empty market pre-release and very loose competition after opening in more than two weeks. [*]  [*]Positive buzz by Beijing premiere. [*]  [*]Day and date release. Not the first Hollywood title in this category this year, but still a favor nevertheless.

 
Top OWs for three-days:
    [*]The Monkey King ---- 315m (2014) ---- three days holiday [*]Dad, Where Are We Going ---- 252m (2014) ---- three days holiday [*]Hobbit 2 ---- 202m (2014)---- normal weekend [*]Fast Six ---- 183m (2013) ---- normal weekend in summer [*]Men in Black 3 ---- 157m (2012) ---- normal weekend

 
Top grossing Superheroes:
    [*]Iron Man 3 ---- 755m (2013)  [*]The Avengers ---- 561m (2012)  [*]Man of Steel ---- 395m (2013)  [*]Thor 2 ---- 344m (2013)  [*]The Dark Kinght Rises ---- 338m (2012) [*]The Amazing Spider-Man ---- 310m (2012) [*]The Wovlerine ---- 250m (2013)  [*]Iron Man 2 ---- 172m (2010)  [*]....... [*]Captain America ---- 96m (2011) 

 
And finally our forecast for the weekly (3.31~4.6) top 5:
    [*]1. Cap 2 ---- 240m ---- NEW (Friday opening) [*]2. Peabody ---- 65m ---- 114m [*]3. The Truth About Beauty ---- 60m ---- NEW (Friday opening) [*]4. NFS ---- 40m ---- 405m [*]5. Bunshinsaba 3 ---- 30m ---- NEW (Friday opening)

 
Smaug had nearly 97k shows on its OW with a much longer runtime. We expect CA2 to have 120k or more shows coming weekend with a national screening count close to 40%. So, if it gets the same per show attendance (50),which shouldnot be a problem considering it's a holiday weekend after all, that's right about 240m OW we are looking at. It could do more or less than that, but now I think 240m should be the relatively conservative milestone.
 
We had it at 210m OW 10 days ago. But the multiplier seems a bit off. So now I am further bumping it to (60+/90/90-). The total prediction remains more or less the same though. In 1.5 days, it should outgross its predecesor, logging the biggest OD/OW year-to-date for a Hollywood title. But no guarantee if it can settle a yearly top 10 spot.
 
Peabody should take #2, with most (40m) of its weekly gross coming from the weekend. Bai Baihe headlining The Truth About Beauty could closely following with 60m, if it doesnot misfire, considering her last two com-coms all opened to 60m+. 
 
NFS will be closing with Cap's arrival but it still has enough gas to race past 400m.
 
China-Korea co-producing thriller Bunshinsaba 3 should top rest holdovers rounding up top 5. The last Bunshinsaba opened to 50m in first 6 days.
 
Overall, the week is looking to gross more than 500m, or very close to the yearly average mark (538m, if 2014 is to total 28B). Saturday will be busiest with likely 170m. Next week should be bigger though.
 
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Am waiting for godzilla numbers!If pacific rim did 100mill then.......

Godzilla is a surefire for $100m IMO. Question is how high it will go. wont rule out $130m. Released one month before TF4, it may even steal thunders from Optimus Prime.

 

Btw, it's distributed by Legendary East in China, nothing to do with WB. (of course, if it's WB, no way it gets a May release.)

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Riding on QingMing, Captian America Poised to Save China Theaters from Downturn
 
The Winter may be gone, but it's been a cold time for Chinese cinemas for the past few weeks, with weekly revenue crawling in the low 300m range. Although March still managed a respectable 16.8% increase over the same month from last year, the average income per screening actually dropped signficently, as 5000 more screens had been added during the year-long period. Box office gross has come to the dreadful 20~25m range on certain weekdays, which means less than 8 tickets sold per show on average, comparing to the 210~255m daily take when the market was at its peak just one-and-half month ago during Spring Festival.That's how unstable and unmature the market still is: in less than 40 days, it riddled through climax and icing point, shrinking more than 90%. 
 
Besides movies themselves, the big secret of China box office, as we explained earlier, is holidays, governmental ones or private ones. The fast growing market is heavily holiday-driven and that creates huge uncertain factors for box office predictions. We know how the lowest valley looks like but we never know how much the market could rebound when the next high tide comes.
 
Granted, QingMing (清明), despite also being three-day, is more in line with DuanWu (端午)in June and no match to May Day holiday (五一)when it comes to tourism or movie going. Daily gross has never touched the 100m mark during QingMing (highest being last year with 97m). However, we belive it can see amazing outbreaks similarly to May One, October One or Chinese New Year, when it reacts with the right movie. And that movie finally shows itself up this year.
 
The Winter Solider wont be one of the phenomenal movies that will make up for whatever lost theaters had in the downturn season. But as the biggest Hollywood release this year so far, it qualifies enough to be the world saver theater owners have been longing for, at least temporarily. And by return, they will offer Captain America enough screenings, like 40%, A+ level opening. Yes, by biggest Hollywood release this year so far, it has to be bigger than current foreign champion Smaug. And the OW of Smaug of 201m is the benchmark where we start to predict how will Cap perform his mission. Along with his precious shield, Cap has got a few other favors.
 

    [*]QingMing. Of course. CA2 is the first Hollywood big movie to fully take advantage of a public holiday in China in a long time. All eyes on how it turns out. Not considering movies playing in theaters, generally speaking: holiday weekend > holiday weekday > normal weekend > working weekend > working weekday. Cap's got one working Friday, two days of holiday weekend and one holiday Monday in its first 4 days.

    [*] 

    [*]High quality, 93% rottentomatoes score, lots of actions and effects set in mordern time, the kind of movie that has a broader audience than a soso Middle Earth saga.

    [*] 

    [*]Empty market pre-release and very loose competition after opening in more than two weeks.

    [*] 

    [*]Positive buzz by Beijing premiere.

    [*] 

    [*]Day and date release. Not the first Hollywood title in this category this year, but still a favor nevertheless.

 
Top OWs for three-days:

    [*]The Monkey King ---- 315m (2014) ---- three days holiday

    [*]Dad, Where Are We Going ---- 252m (2014) ---- three days holiday

    [*]Hobbit 2 ---- 202m (2014)---- normal weekend

    [*]Fast Six ---- 183m (2013) ---- normal weekend in summer

    [*]Men in Black 3 ---- 157m (2012) ---- normal weekend

 
Top grossing Superheroes:

    [*]Iron Man 3 ---- 755m (2013) 

    [*]The Avengers ---- 561m (2012) 

    [*]Man of Steel ---- 395m (2013) 

    [*]Thor 2 ---- 344m (2013) 

    [*]The Dark Kinght Rises ---- 338m (2012)

    [*]The Amazing Spider-Man ---- 310m (2012)

    [*]The Wovlerine ---- 250m (2013) 

    [*]Iron Man 2 ---- 172m (2010) 

    [*].......

    [*]Captain America ---- 96m (2011) 

 
And finally our forecast for the weekly (3.31~4.6) top 5:

    [*]1. Cap 2 ---- 240m ---- NEW (Friday opening)

    [*]2. Peabody ---- 65m ---- 114m

    [*]3. The Truth About Beauty ---- 60m ---- NEW (Friday opening)

    [*]4. NFS ---- 40m ---- 405m

    [*]5. Bunshinsaba 3 ---- 30m ---- NEW (Friday opening)

 
Smaug had nearly 97k shows on its OW with a much longer runtime. We expect CA2 to have 120k or more shows coming weekend with a national screening count close to 40%. So, if it gets the same per show attendance (50),which shouldnot be a problem considering it's a holiday weekend after all, that's right about 240m OW we are looking at. It could do more or less than that, but now I think 240m should be the relatively conservative milestone.
 
We had it at 210m OW 10 days ago. But the multiplier seems a bit off. So now I am further bumping it to (60+/90/90-). The total prediction remains more or less the same though. In 1.5 days, it should outgross its predecesor, logging the biggest OD/OW year-to-date for a Hollywood title. But no guarantee if it can settle a yearly top 10 spot.
 
Peabody should take #2, with most (40m) of its weekly gross coming from the weekend. Bai Baihe headlining The Truth About Beauty could closely following with 60m, if it doesnot misfire, considering her last two com-coms all opened to 60m+. 
 
NFS will be closing with Cap's arrival but it still has enough gas to race past 400m.
 
China-Korea co-producing thriller Bunshinsaba 3 should top rest holdovers rounding up top 5. The last Bunshinsaba opened to 50m in first 6 days.
 
Overall, the week is looking to gross more than 500m, or very close to the yearly average mark (538m, if 2014 is to total 28B). Saturday will be busiest with likely 170m. Next week should be bigger though.
 

 

 

If it opens close to 40M on OW than 100M could happen, as it's likely to have strong WOM. How is the competition for rest of it's run?

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If it opens close to 40M on OW than 100M could happen, as it's likely to have strong WOM. How is the competition for rest of it's run?

OW will be inflated by holiday weekend.

RIO2 next week, will be big here.

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