China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[A Marvel Fanboy]

2015 Top 10 [As of Oct]
Rank	Tittle	片名	Distributor	Total Gross (RMB)	Total Gross (US$)	Country	2D/3D	Open
1	Monster Hunt	捉妖记	Union Pictures	¥2,433,890,000	$392,562,903	China	3D	16-Jul
2	Furious 7	速度与激情7	CFGC	¥2,426,340,000	$391,345,161	US	3D	12-Apr
3	Lost in HK	港囧	Enlight	¥1,700,000,000	$274,193,548	China	2D	25-Sep	Estimates
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron	复仇者联盟2	CFGC	¥1,464,020,000	$236,132,258	US	3D	12-May
5	Jurassic World	侏罗纪世界	CFGC	¥1,420,200,000	$229,064,516	US	3D	10-Jun
6	Goodbye Mr. Loser	夏洛特烦恼	Wu Zhou	¥1,300,000,000	$203,125,000	China	2D	30-Sep	Estimates
7	Jian Bing Man	煎饼侠	Wu Zhou	¥1,159,490,000	$187,014,516	China	2D	17-Jul
8	The Man from Macau 2	澳门风云2	Bona	¥974,440,000	$156,160,256	China	2D	19-Feb
9	Monkey King: Hero is Back	西游记之大圣归来	Juhe Yinglian	¥955,940,000	$154,183,871	China	3D	10-Jul
10	Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation	碟中谍5	CFGC	¥870,000,000	$135,937,500	US	2D	8-Sep	Estimates

 

Rogue Nation will be the first Mission not in yearly top 10.

 

With Ghouls, Skptrace and Breakup Guru 2 still to come, top 10 could all be over 1B.

 

Btw. In 2013, Detective Dee handily won the October Holiday with just 600m, but now, two years later, that number wont even be in the top 3 among October Holiday releases. October Holiday 2014 produced Breakup Buddies, a $190m blockbusters but one year later we have literally 2.5 Breakup Buddieses over the same period. Incredible.

Edited October 7, 2015 by firedeep

[peludo]

Asuming that US is still doing more money and its biggest films are still quite bigger than in China, if we look at the top 10 yearly, we can see that both countries have the same number of films over $200m. The next step for China will be to have 400-500 million grossers and keep the gap narrowing.

[POTUS 2020]

Asuming that US is still doing more money and its biggest films are still quite bigger than in China, if we look at the top 10 yearly, we can see that both countries have the same number of films over $200m. The next step for China will be to have 400-500 million grossers and keep the gap narrowing.

US didn't have any movies over $360m last year and did 10.3B. China has 2 and possibly 3 over 360m if GML continues to blow up but will still do less than 7.5B.  Too much feast or famine. Its either big over 3 weeks or it fades from theater in 10 days too often. They need more in the middle, $50-150m movies that are quality, not hype, and may take time to roll out and catch on which is tough in china with the way they pull screens quickly. There are many movies per year in the US that roll out slowly and build momo and make 50m to over 100m in 3 to 4 months, especially late fall into the Oscar season

[sgchn40]

Apparently in Sep, the Chinese market is only 13% smaller than North America.

http://www.entgroup.cn/news/Exclusive/0626368.shtml

[peludo]

US didn't have any movies over $360m last year and did 10.3B. China has 2 and possibly 3 over 360m if GML continues to blow up but will still do less than 7.5B.  Too much feast or famine. Its either big over 3 weeks or it fades from theater in 10 days too often. They need more in the middle, $50-150m movies that are quality, not hype, and may take time to roll out and catch on which is tough in china with the way they pull screens quickly. There are many movies per year in the US that roll out slowly and build momo and make 50m to over 100m in 3 to 4 months, especially late fall into the Oscar season

I am conscious of the differences of both markets. I just took the top 10 list posted by @firedeep and I did a quick comparison.

 

I prefer to see the films over a lower amount. For instance, $50m/320 million Yuan (I prefer to take a Yuan figure instead a dollar one given the continous change of ER) . Since 2010, US has made 66-69 films per year making those $50m. China had 5 films in 2010 over 320 million Yuan, 8 in 2011, 13 in 2012, 19 in 2013, 30 in 2014. This year, for the moment, the result is 41 vs 34.

 

I have no doubts that US will increase that amount towards the usual 65-70 films because of awards season. The question is which will be the Chinese number, 40?, 45? that would mean 10-15 films more than last year reaching a considerable amount. China continues growing and narrowing the gap. Obviously, there is still a big difference, but unless the market collapses (there is a certain risk given some doubts about the economy), the trend is clear.

[POTUS 2020]

This puppy wont quit. Another increase. Appling standard sunday to Monday drop to tomorrow then the usual weekend bumps, Saturday will be flat to today and the rest of the week plays out charted below. Assuming it has 35-40% holds like MH after that it gets to 1.9B. A bump on Saturday and a couple holds better than -35% and it blows thru 2B and could challenge MH. Ive never seen a run like this.

	GML						TMK
	Day	Yn	% +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
	Wed	23			23	4
	Thur	40	73.9%		63	10
	Fri	50	25.0%		113	18	28			28	5
	Sat	63	26.0%		176	28	28	0.0%		56	9
	Sun	78	23.8%		254	40	40	42.9%		96	15
	Mon	98	25.6%		352	55	40	0.0%		136	22
	Tues	112	14.3%		464	73	58	45.0%		194	31
Est	Wed	118	5.4%	413.0%	582	92	66	13.8%		260	42
Proj	Thur	55	-53.4%	37.5%	637	103	49	-25.8%		309	50
Proj	Fri	70	27.3%	40.0%	707	114	37	-24.5%	32.1%	346	56
Proj	Sat	118	68.6%	87.3%	825	133	62	67.6%	121.4%	408	66
Proj	Sun	110	-6.8%	41.0%	935	151	61	-1.6%	52.5%	469	76
Proj	Mon	50	-54.5%	-49.0%	985	159	30	-50.8%	-25.0%	499	80
Proj	Tue	45	-10.0%	-59.8%	1030	166	28	-6.7%	-51.7%	527	85
Proj	Wed	40	-11.1%	-66.1%	1070	172	25	-10.7%	-62.1%	552	89
Proj	Thu	36	-10.0%	-34.5%	1106	178	22	-12.0%	-55.1%	574	92
					1900	205				956	154

 

[MinaTakla]

Seems MINIONS has a good chance of topping IA4 in China to become 3rd highest Hollywood animated film EVER in China after KFP2 and BH6.

Cool!

Edited October 7, 2015 by MinaTakla

[keysersoze123]

Seems MINIONS has a good chance of topping IA4 in China to become 3rd highest Hollywood animated film EVER in China after KFP2 and BH6.

Amazing!

 

Minions run is far from amazing.

[Olive]

MINIONS is the most hyped hollywood movie on par with AOU.

Less than 450m yuan is just disappointing and embarrassing.

[MinaTakla]

It definitely performed below expectations but at least has bragging rights for 3rd highest Hollywood animation until KFP3 comes out and pushes it 4th.

What's amazing is that only 3 or 4 Hollywood films have exceeded 70m in China. 

[Olive]

Wednesday Est

Goodbye Mr. Loser:114M/593M

LiHK: 36.4M/1486M

Chronicles of the Ghostly Tribe: 33.5M/577M

Saving Mr Wu: 12.5M/139M

Minions 3.1M/432M

MI5 1.4M/868M

 

Inside out  20m/49.1m

 

Golden week had a whopping 68% increase over last year!(1.85b vs 1.1b)

[Fake]

Last Thursday LiHK did 125M and GML did 40M. In 6 days, the numbers have practically reverserved. Crazy!!!

[Black Hawk]

Accused of Hiding Money, China Agrees to New Rules in Secret Hollywood Summit

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/accused-hiding-money-china-agrees-830118

[Infernus]

Seems MINIONS has a good chance of topping IA4 in China to become 3rd highest Hollywood animated film EVER in China after KFP2 and BH6.

Cool!

Oh, c'mon now...

[Cynosure]

It's also the biggest animated movie in China whose title starts with an 'M'. Staggering !!!

[KP1025]

I don't think barely beating Ice Age 4 is a big deal. Minions had 3 more years of market growth and should have done a lot more. When it fails to make even half of what most people here expected as the floor, I consider that a big underperformance. 

[A District 3 Engineer]

Hi boys, do you think mp2 will be released on November 20 or will be pushed back to 2016?

Have you read something about it?

[POTUS 2020]

Last year Break up Buddies was down just 45% on the 8th as well as the #2 and 3 movies for GW.

 

Here is GML compared to MH. Maybe it can make a run at it if it can out perform my projections for the next week.

 

	GML						MH
	Day	Yn	% +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
	Wed	23			33	5
	Thur	40	73.9%		73	12	165			165	27
	Fri	50	25.0%		123	19	132			297	48
	Sat	63	26.0%		186	29	188	42.4%		485	78
	Sun	79	25.4%		265	42	184	-2.1%		669	108
	Mon	98	24.1%		363	57	110	-40.2%		779	125
	Tues	112	14.3%		475	75	103	-6.4%		882	142
Est	Wed	118	5.4%	413.0%	593	93	85	-17.5%		967	156
Proj	Thur	60	-49.2%	50.0%	653	105	83	-2.4%	-49.7%	1050	169
Proj	Fri	73	21.7%	46.0%	726	117	81	-2.4%	-38.6%	1131	182
Proj	Sat	118	61.6%	87.3%	844	136	121	49.4%	-35.6%	1252	202
Proj	Sun	110	-6.8%	39.2%	954	154	125	3.3%	-32.1%	1377	222
Proj	Mon	50	-54.5%	-49.0%	1004	162	64	-48.8%	-41.8%	1441	232
Proj	Tue	47	-6.0%	-58.0%	1051	169	62	-3.1%	-39.8%	1503	242
Proj	Wed	43	-8.5%	-63.6%	1094	176	57	-8.1%	-32.9%	1560	251
Proj	Thu	38	-11.6%	-36.7%	1132	182	44	-22.8%	-47.0%	1604	258
					1900	300				2438	391

7 days of increases. That's a record not soon broken

[POTUS 2020]

Last year Break up Buddies was down just 45% on the 8th as well as the #2 and 3 movies for GW.
 
Here is GML compared to MH. Maybe it can make a run at it if it can out perform my projections for the next week.

	GML						MH
	Day	Yn	% +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
	Wed	23			33	5
	Thur	40	73.9%		73	12	165			165	27
	Fri	50	25.0%		123	19	132			297	48
	Sat	63	26.0%		186	29	188	42.4%		485	78
	Sun	79	25.4%		265	42	184	-2.1%		669	108
	Mon	98	24.1%		363	57	110	-40.2%		779	125
Est	Tues	112	14.3%		475	75	103	-6.4%		882	142
Proj	Wed	118	5.4%	413.0%	593	93	85	-17.5%		967	156
Proj	Thur	60	-49.2%	50.0%	653	105	83	-2.4%	-49.7%	1050	169
Proj	Fri	73	21.7%	46.0%	726	117	81	-2.4%	-38.6%	1131	182
Proj	Sat	118	61.6%	87.3%	844	136	121	49.4%	-35.6%	1252	202
Proj	Sun	110	-6.8%	39.2%	954	154	125	3.3%	-32.1%	1377	222
Proj	Mon	50	-54.5%	-49.0%	1004	162	64	-48.8%	-41.8%	1441	232
Proj	Tue	47	-6.0%	-58.0%	1051	169	62	-3.1%	-39.8%	1503	242
Proj	Wed	43	-8.5%	-63.6%	1094	176	57	-8.1%	-32.9%	1560	251
Proj	Thu	38	-11.6%	-36.7%	1132	182	44	-22.8%	-47.0%	1604	258
					1900	300				2438	391

 

Edited October 8, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[POTUS 2020]

It definitely performed below expectations but at least has bragging rights for 3rd highest Hollywood animation until KFP3 comes out and pushes it 4th.

What's amazing is that only 3 or 4 Hollywood films have exceeded 70m in China. 

The run was fine, don't listen to them.  KFP2 was a phenomenon and shouldn't be compared to. To think it could do over 150-200m,  let alone over 100m when no HLWD toon could do it in the 4 years since KFP2 did 96m is ludicrous.

 

• Frozen was a WW phenom, it did more OS and WW than Minions and could do just 50m last year.
• Minions not quite doubled IO's OS BO and it will more than double IO's china BO.
• Kids just went back to school. HLWD does not release big movies skewing younger a week after school is back in for an obvious reason.
• Sept is historically the worst BO month in Domestic and in most other countries. Was close to the bottom last year in China and dead last in 2013. 
• MH and TMK were huge hits that just closed, tough to follow
• Title may have been a turn off. "Little Yellow People" sounds a bit racist to me

I got caught in the hype myself instead of being analytical. Having said that...

I say KFP3 doesn't break 200m. KFP2 was an all time #1 anomaly and will unlikely be beaten  when adding in market increase (300m+). I don't see why it would double TMK. Maybe it beats it, but not by much. Chinese just don't do toons like other countries.