China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Ephemeris]

Looks like everything was overestimated with yesterday's estimates. JW2 previews revised down to 13.56M.

 

It says the total after Thursday was 13.58M. Noticed before that the total is often very slightly bigger than the preview number with first actuals. I know it doesn't really matter, just curious why since I've seen it before with other movies. Is there a very small amount of special showings the day before previews or something?

Edited June 15, 2018 by Ephemeris

[abra]

FRIDAY	JW2	LAST HOUR JW2
8AM
9AM		-
10AM		-
11AM		-
12PM	77,42	-
1PM	85,81	8,39
2PM	95,30	9,49
3PM	104,46	9,16
4PM	113,49	9,03
5PM	123,21	9,72
6PM	134,60	11,39
7PM	149,26	14,66
8PM	167,76	18,5
9PM	182,22	14,46
10PM	197,98	15,76

[Olive]

Friday Est

Jurassic World FK : 201M/214.6M, nearly doubled JW1 not counting MN.

The Way of the Bug: 17.8M OD

The Leaker : 9.7M/10M OD

How Long Will I Love U : 2.35M/867.3M

Infinity War: 0.89M/2371M

[kswiston]

Looks like JW2 more or less ended IW's run. 

[a2k]

Solid Friday. 900+ 4-day possible unless my Mon is too optimistic:

13.6 + 201.0 + 291.5 (+45%) + 233.2 (-20%) + 163.2 (-30%) = 902.5 ($140.15)

[A Marvel Fanboy]

14 minutes ago, a2k said:

Solid Friday. 900+ 4-day possible unless my Mon is too optimistic:

13.6 + 201.0 + 291.5 (+45%) + 233.2 (-20%) + 163.2 (-30%) = 902.5 ($140.15)

very reasonable

[ZeeSoh]

PS for tomorrow is at 53.7m Yuan which is down about 10.5% from Fridays PS. 

 

Maybe it might not bump too high tomorrow? Or is the lower Sat PS due to holidays?

 

Edited June 15, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[Gavin Feng]

45 minutes ago, a2k said:

Solid Friday. 900+ 4-day possible unless my Mon is too optimistic:

13.6 + 201.0 + 291.5 (+45%) + 233.2 (-20%) + 163.2 (-30%) = 902.5 ($140.15)

A Rampage level of SAT increase in summer holiday...

[a2k]

2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

A Rampage level of SAT increase in summer holiday...

what's realistic then...20-30% from friday-previews?

 

edit: being conservative,

 

$34 + $41(+20%) + 33(-20%) + 23(-30%) = $130 4-day (108 3-day)

$130 * 1.5 or $108 * 1.8 = $195 total

Edited June 15, 2018 by a2k

[Krissykins]

$34.4m Friday. 

 

What does that point to for the 3 and 4 day? 

[Asyulus]

$377m for IW final?

[a2k]

Quote

Universal and Amblin's Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom stomped into China on Friday, opening to a hefty $34.4 million, according to the studio.

Local box-office tracker EntGroup put the opening-day gross slightly higher at $36 million.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-china-box-office-opening-day-1120461

[ZeeSoh]

19 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

$34.4m Friday. 

 

What does that point to for the 3 and 4 day? 

Its about $33.8m including Thursday previews (unless Maoyans numbers are completely off)

 

Sat PS is down about 7.1% from yesterday. Im coming around to the idea that it may not increase a huge amount tomorrow that I first thought it would (50-60%). The lower PS, holiday weekend and summer season makes me think the increase tomorrow will be in a range of 25-35%. 

 

It’ll still get past $100m 3 days. Right now Im thinking 110-115m 3 day and 135-140m usd 4 day

 

13 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

$377m for IW final?

Thanks to worsening ER it is at 368.8m right now. It wont get there unless ER swings massively back to where it was at the time of its release

Edited June 15, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[POTUS 2020]

5 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

PS for tomorrow is at 53.7m Yuan which is down about 10.5% from Fridays PS. 

 

Maybe it might not bump too high tomorrow? Or is the lower Sat PS due to holidays?

 

The bumps in the past are all over the place. 

2 years ago WC was 20% but that was a big OD front load. Xmen was out for 5 days and bumped 100%. 

Last year PotC5 was flat saturday(mite have been a work day, holiday sun-tues) then bumped 37% on sunday. 

 

POTC5

MN  14m

Fr   133

Sa  135   

Su  185  

Mo 169

Tu  124 

 

JW2 PSm could be 5x for 275m for a 36% bump, makes sense when looking at other runs. Im not ruling out 50% though. Holidays can surprise

Edited June 15, 2018 by POTUS

[ZeeSoh]

10am - 60.36 

11am - 69.55 (+9.19m)

@abra

 

Will be slightly higher than yesterday at 12pm. Run rate per hour is also higher than yesterday. But thats expected due to today being Saturday. Morning/afternoon will be stronger than yesterday whereas late evening wont have the same relative increase as yesterday. 

 

Also yesterday’s midpoint was 2.30pm it seems. 

[ZeeSoh]

10am - 60.36 

11am - 69.55 (+9.19m)

12pm- 80.25 (+10.7m)

 

Yesterday 12pm was 77.42 so todays  ahead by about 3.65% at this point

[abra]

SATURDAY	JW2	LAST HOUR	FROM FRIDAY
8AM
9AM		-
10AM		-
11AM		-
12PM	80,25	-	3,66%
1PM	97,48	17,23	13,60%

 

[abra]

               

SATURDAY	JW2	LAST HOUR	FROM FRIDAY	LAST HOUR FRIDAY
8AM
9AM		-		-
10AM		-		-
11AM		-		-
12PM	80,25	-	3,66%	-
1PM	97,48	17,23	13,60%	8,39
2PM	119,24	21,76	25,12%	9,49

 

so far we can see significant increases if they are interesting or will continue

[Fake]

Headed for 290M today with a shot at 300M.

 

1B+ 4-Day should happen.

[POTUS 2020]

26 minutes ago, abra said:

               

 

 

SATURDAY	JW2	LAST HOUR	FROM FRIDAY	LAST HOUR FRIDAY
8AM
9AM		-		-
10AM		-		-
11AM		-		-
12PM	80,25	-	3,66%	-
1PM	97,48	17,23	13,60%	8,39
2PM	119,24	21,76	25,12%	9,49

so far we can see significant increases if they are interesting or will continue

Mid afternoon bulge.  It'll taper a bit in 2 hours then increase again at 6pm

22 minutes ago, Fake said:

Headed for 290M today with a shot at 300M.

 

1B+ 4-Day should happen.

Sounds good

Rating stabilized at 8.5

Edited June 16, 2018 by POTUS