China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[terrestrial]

4 hours ago, James said:

You forgot FB = Fantastic Beasts

 

2 hours ago, terrestrial said:

peludo didn't gave the list, he ~ translated a list given by someone else

 

2 hours ago, James said:

I know. But firedeep, or who put the list mentiond FB too and peludo forgot to put it.

 

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

uups and wow, I missed FB too, but wouldn't have known that one either, even as Fantastic Beasts I had to look it up beside knowing about the existence of the book in general.

 

1 hour ago, peludo said:

Sure, FB should be able to make more than those 800m Yuan that seems the roof for TFA. I just looked at @terrestrial list and it was not included.

 

Hahaha, now I understand, firedeep edited the post, in the quotes it's to see, it wasn't there then.

I really started to doubt my brain here for a moment....

 

38 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Index closed below 3000 and at August low. Thinking 2400 next stop

Not happy to hear about the Index dropping that much, what do you think, will they intervene?

[sgchn40]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Thank you! Are there any website where an English speaker can see the estimates?

 

I believe there is a Twitter feed that Olive or Firedeep posts here at around 10pm. I am not sure of a real time English feed. Maybe NoPrisoner will have an idea?

[sgchn40]

14 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

 

 

 

 

Hahaha, now I understand, firedeep edited the post, in the quotes it's to see, it wasn't there then.

I really started to doubt my brain here for a moment....

 

Not happy to hear about the Index dropping that much, what do you think, will they intervene?

 

Why not enjoy the ride down and buy near the support at 2,400. The national army will most certainly come out by then. How I wish I can buy Wanda Cinemas

[Olive]

23 hours ago, The Good Olive said:

My Prediction for the next days

33 - 447

29 - 476

38 - 514

65 - 579

55 - 634

So around 630-640M($97-98m) after 2nd Sunday.

Wednesday Estimates
Star Wars: TFA  33.1M/468M, $5m/$71.2m
Detective Chinatown 14.55M/680M
Mr. Six 7.65M/848M
Mojin 4.1M/1650M
Sherlock 3.6M/146M
 

Friday showtimes

Go Fighting 23.8%

SW7  20.5%

The Secret 18.5%

Last Witch Hunter 12.8%

[TigerPaw]

2 minutes ago, The Good Olive said:

 

Friday showtimes

Go Fighting 23.8%

SW7  20.5%

The Secret 18.5%

Last Witch Hunter 12.8%

What about solace? 

[Olive]

1 minute ago, TigerPaw said:

What about solace? 

10.4%

[TigerPaw]

3 minutes ago, The Good Olive said:

10.4%

Thanks. This weekend will be interesting. After this weekend, we should have a very clear and accurate estimate of TFA's final gross. If Go Fighting or the Secret breaks out with a very positve WOM, TFA will be in huge trouble. Exciting weekend.

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, The Good Olive said:

Friday showtimes

Go Fighting 23.8%

SW7  20.5%

The Secret 18.5%

Last Witch Hunter 12.8%

If I remember it right, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday is,

Spoiler

foreign titles set for release this week include Solace (Jan 14) and The Last Witch Hunter (Jan 15). New local fare includes Barbara Wong’s The Secret (Jan 15) and Boonie Bears III (Jan 16)

when the other movies open and SW7 will loose at least 1/4 of its screens.

Any feeling if that screen drop will change?

Curious to see the finals of Sherlock in China and all other countries it got released.

Funnily in a way: I find the Chinese details, but not the ones in the US.

I mean, 2 days (at least), each 500 theaters, it should show up somewhere...

 

[terrestrial]

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice

#StarWars #TheForceAwakens earned est. $5.0M (-17%) on Wednesday. China's 5-day stands at $71.1M.

[TommyA10]

1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

Which is over 3b in today's today's dollars

Sorry, but blindly adjusting numbers like that is silly, as moviegoing in general has changed dramatically (and decreased significantly) in the past 10-15 years for obvious reasons.

[terrestrial]

6 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

Sorry, but blindly adjusting numbers like that is silly, as moviegoing in general has changed dramatically (and decreased significantly) in the past 10-15 years for obvious reasons.

yes and no, I agree to be cautious about 'blindly' adjusting, but as it was about the Chinese movie market, that one is actually extremly increasing (but IMHO more for local movies than some seem to assume)

Edited January 13, 2016 by terrestrial

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, sgchn40 said:

 

Unless there is an intervention

Sooner or later a market will do its own thing.  USSR collapsed regardless of what controls they put in place. They can create artificiaI  GDP and keep a market afloat for only so long

[POTUS 2020]

38 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

Sorry, but blindly adjusting numbers like that is silly, as moviegoing in general has changed dramatically (and decreased significantly) in the past 10-15 years for obvious reasons.

There is way to compare. Take the percentage of a movies gross from the total of that year. It shows the impact it has in that given year.  That ratio can then be compared to another era. That may not apply as much to GWTW with its release see pattern, but it define lyrics works for first run for the last 40 years.

Using domestic numbers

This past year was 11B

Titanic did 9.5% of 97s total. That equals 1.040B

Which is very close to BOMs adjusted

SW7 will do 950m on 11B. 8.6%

9-10% has been a barometer for many markets for an Uber blockbuster. It affected all markets like avatar. That's why they are November the rest. SW7 and the saturation of SH crap does not penetrate everywhere. 

 

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

 

 

 

 

 

Hahaha, now I understand, firedeep edited the post, in the quotes it's to see, it wasn't there then.

I really started to doubt my brain here for a moment....

 

Not happy to hear about the Index dropping that much, what do you think, will they intervene?

They will at some point when it's making new 52 week lows below 2900. The real question is will it work this time.

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, No Prisoners said:

 That's why they are November the rest. SW7 and the saturation of SH crap does not penetrate everywhere.

??? I do not understand that

and I think the rest is a little bit too simplified. You might be aware, I love numbers too, but sometimes I feel like it can be dangerous to be a bit too much in love with them, especially if combined/influenced maybe with/by personal POV / taste?

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

The real question is will it work this time.

Yeah, I agree, that is what is concerning me too

[POTUS 2020]

59 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

If I remember it right, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday is,

  Reveal hidden contents

foreign titles set for release this week include Solace (Jan 14) and The Last Witch Hunter (Jan 15). New local fare includes Barbara Wong’s The Secret (Jan 15) and Boonie Bears III (Jan 16)

when the other movies open and SW7 will loose at least 1/4 of its screens.

Any feeling if that screen drop will change?

Curious to see the finals of Sherlock in China and all other countries it got released.

Funnily in a way: I find the Chinese details, but not the ones in the US.

I mean, 2 days (at least), each 500 theaters, it should show up somewhere...

 

There are openings on thu Fri and sat. 

It's show will drop from 45% to 35% on thursday.

Then to 20% Fri and 15% sat.

So when it would be normally bumping big it's loss and competition could mute it and 70% drop could happen.

If it underperformed it's screen percentage it could lose more screens as the weekend progresses. 

[peludo]

1 hour ago, TommyA10 said:

Sorry, but blindly adjusting numbers like that is silly, as moviegoing in general has changed dramatically (and decreased significantly) in the past 10-15 years for obvious reasons.

I do not see that dramatic drop in attendance generalized. I am conscious that there are some countries that in fact have dropped. Spain is maybe the best example but it is very conditioned by a brutal economical crisis, not because people prefer to do other things. In general, I see the same attendance figures in the 2000 developed markets. In some of them maybe a bit lower, in other a bit higher, but nothing dramatic.

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

There are openings on thu Fri and sat. 

 

If it underperformed it's screen percentage it could lose more screens as the weekend progresses. 

Yeah, I know, I put the release date/tiltes into the spoiler

 

Thanks, I think my question was not clearly enough formulated: 1/4 loss of screens was the latest I read, but I didn't follow up on that. Any feeling already how much it might really loose (% of screens) during the WE or is it too early to ask for that?

[TommyA10]

20 minutes ago, peludo said:

I do not see that dramatic drop in attendance generalized. I am conscious that there are some countries that in fact have dropped. Spain is maybe the best example but it is very conditioned by a brutal economical crisis, not because people prefer to do other things. In general, I see the same attendance figures in the 2000 developed markets. In some of them maybe a bit lower, in other a bit higher, but nothing dramatic.

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/number-of-frequent-young-moviegoers-plummets-in-2013-1201146426/

 

"The number of frequent moviegoers in the all-important 18-24 age group plunged an unprecedented 17% in 2013, according to MPAA annual statistics released Tuesday at Cinemacon, while attendance in the 12-17 age bracket also saw a precipitous drop off, falling almost 15%. Frequent filmgoers from 12-24 are likely spending much of their previous moviegoing time watching a variety of other screens."