China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[jiangsen]

22 minutes ago, The Good Olive said:

Go fighting looks to underperform, under 150M yuan 3 day possible.

KFP3 should really be pushed forward for a week or two...

Judging by presales or...？

[POTUS 2020]

6 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Well that sucks lol 

I remember the enthusiasm when presales started picking up and it was tracking for somewhere near $50 million OD (that only lasted about 2 hours or something). I think it was @No Prisoners who said (at that point of course) that with a "gun to his head" he'd estimate it would do $250 million!

Then the bottom fell out!

Now we won't even get half of that!! 

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Two big ifs we're in play there.

Pre-sales keep growing and OD explodes, they died right after that comment, Bets were off at that point.

And decent WOM. A movie can explode in China and quintuple expectations  or stumble out of the gate and close in 10 days. It had worse ratings than most HLWD tent poles in the last year. 

Just hope the chamber is empty

[Olive]

5 minutes ago, jiangsen said:

Judging by presales or...？

Yes presales, These kind of movies' presales are usually high.

[POTUS 2020]

10 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

How can that be if it will be at $100 million through Sunday? It's only gonna make $20 million more after that? I don't see how it only does $20 million more after $100 million in 9 days.

With bad WOM and 6 new releases,  it could drop over 70% next week. Even 80-90% with more openers the following weekend. There is no mercy china.

Edited January 14, 2016 by No Prisoners

[jiangsen]

Thursday Estimates

Star Wars: TFA 30.1M/499M (-10%)

Solace 14.1M OD

Detective Chinatown 13.45M/694M

Mr. Six 6.95M/855M

Mojin 3.6M/1.653B

Sherlock 2.85M/149M

Last Witchhunter 2.5M Midnights

Go Fighting 2.5M Midnights

Edited January 14, 2016 by jiangsen

[Olive]

Thursday Estimates
Star Wars: TFA  30M/499M, $4.55m/$75.7m

Solace:14M OD $2.1m
Detective Chinatown 13.45M/694M/$105.3m
Mr. Six 7M/855M
Mojin 3.6M/1653M
Sherlock 2.85M/149M

Little Door Gods 77.8M

Devil and Angel 649M
 
Friday/Saturday showtimes

Bonnie Bears  ** 29.5%
Go Fighting 22.3%,17.7%
SW7  20.8%,17.6%
The Secret 16.5%,12.1%
Last Witch Hunter 13.3%,8.9%

Solace 9.1%,7.5%

[sgchn40]

45 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

With bad WOM and 6 new releases,  it could drop over 70% next week. Even 80-90% with more openers next weekend. There is no mercy china.

 

I don't think the upcoming movies will cause SW7 to fall 80 to 90%. I suspect a drop aroubd 70%

[druv10]

Finally a decent hold for SW7.

[IronJimbo]

12 minutes ago, druv10 Maul said:

Finally a decent hold for SW7.

 

It's not meant to drop 20% every weekday.

[FranMan]

Seems like the new releases could underperform for the weekend, helping TFA to hold better.

[marveldcfox]

3 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Me neither, saw the trailer and lost my appetite. Haha. Will be interesting to see which 1 gross more in China, Independence Day or Warcraft. Bvs or Cap America 3. Fun year. =)

Is independence day popular/beloved in china? 

[numble]

1 hour ago, marveldcfox said:

Is independence day popular/beloved in china? 

Angelababy is. 

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, sgchn40 said:

 

I don't think the upcoming movies will cause SW7 to fall 80 to 90%. I suspect a drop aroubd 70%

For this weekend yes. But if it continues to slide, next weekend could see 80-90% with more releases coming. Meant to write "following weekend". FTFM

 

Pre-sales are the same for Friday as they were thursday but the pre-sale multi is higher on a friday. Could be 4x instead of 3.5x. It will win friday, 2 locals have more pre-sales but a local opener is usually just 2.2x PS. With the reduction of screens it is looking to bump just 15-20% today. . It may lose tomorrow to a local. With more screen loss and a new release breakout it may bump less than 50% on sat. 

Thinking as a low end possibility

35m Fri

52m sat -73% from just sat total, not MN

37m sun -73%

Edited January 14, 2016 by No Prisoners

[TigerPaw]

49 minutes ago, numble said:

Angelababy is. 

Remains to  be seen how big of a role she has in independence day. Her english isn't that great.. Saw her in Running Man(Korean Version) and she couldn't really say a proper sentence.

[bangbingchan]

14 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Fast?  Wasn't this obvious by at least Sunday?    It might not out gross M15

By Sunday？I think TFA will be very lucky close to MI5.Most people don't believe it.when weekday drop hard,TFA might not beat T5.100M is always the right expectation for TFA.

Edited January 14, 2016 by bangbingchan

[bangbingchan]

13 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Remains to  be seen how big of a role she has in independence day. Her english isn't that great.. Saw her in Running Man(Korean Version) and she couldn't really say a proper sentence.

I think Angelababy is better when she don't say anything. In Mojin trailer,She is pretty when she is open her eyes in a coffin and say nothing.That's the best role she play

Edited January 14, 2016 by bangbingchan

[Quigley]

Let's hope for a 150M yuan weekend.

[bangbingchan]

According to Forbes, The Force Awakens' "speculative $150 million finish would be a larger Chinese total than Spectre ($83m), Terminator Genisys ($112m), The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies ($121m), Iron Man 3 ($121m), and Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation ($136m).

 

 

In fact,TFA is only locked $100~110M now.It can only beat Spectre.

[efialtes76]

Any info about KFP3 presales?

[mepal1]

Talk about burnout. Considering its big start in China due to the marketing push, and to seeing the film out of curiosity, it looks like the Chinese view SWTFA as just another SCI-FI film.

You can understand why, as the original trilogy was not able to of been shown in China, therefore the Chinese have no history to connect with this franchise, except for the poor 2nd trilogy. Plus its not part of their culture. You could expect that for example, how would a Chinese film franchise go down in N.America and Europe, the films could be popular, but not to the stratosphere levels of home grown films.

SWTFA is losing thousands of screens each day in China, and that's even before other big films, are released soon.