China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[NCsoft]

On 23/10/2016 at 3:50 AM, Fullbuster said:

 

 

That's not very impressive

With the exception of Zootopia, Hollywood films haven't been doing that impressive the whole year,  the Chinese market is also kind of stagnating right now. 

Plus there's also not a lot of buzz on Fantastic beast in China. I hope it'd do well though. 

[Gavin Feng]

57 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Is there absolutely no chance that Moana break out the way Zootopia did? I understand Nov is packed,  but still.. 

I don't think that Moana will be the highest grossing import film of 2016.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

Is there absolutely no chance that Moana break out the way Zootopia did? I understand Nov is packed,  but still.. 

Under $50m or ￥340m is just the most likely result in China. The best way to predict a breakout in China is to see if it's had surprising results in any other country.

 

BTW, it's probably going to be February when Moana reaches China.

[NCsoft]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

Under $50m or ￥340m is just the most likely result in China. The best way to predict a breakout in China is to see if it's had surprising results in any other country.

 

BTW, it's probably going to be February when Moana reaches China.

Oh, Moana releases in China Nov 25th. but I hope the good will from Zootopia will carry over, Chinese market is truly unpredictable.

[Fullbuster]

9 hours ago, cannastop said:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-china-box-office-20161024-snap-story.html

 

The Los Angeles Times did a piece on China's slowing movie industry.

 

I'm actually skeptical that China's rabid box office growth will continue in the future.

 

Wow, what the hell happened?

 

Maybe we enter a new era of slower growth in the industry. That's not that surprising in the end : the country's economy is not as dynamic as it was before and the population is aging fast, it's almost stagnant and the workforce is decreasing.

[Fullbuster]

5 hours ago, NCsoft said:

With the exception of Zootopia, Hollywood films haven't been doing that impressive the whole year,  the Chinese market is also kind of stagnating right now. 

Plus there's also not a lot of buzz on Fantastic beast in China. I hope it'd do well though. 

 

That's pretty sad, this market was quite a ray of light in a tough year for OS markets.

But at least that will force people to look at other growing markets such as Brazil, Indonesia, India, Mexico..

[cannastop]

4 hours ago, NCsoft said:

Oh, Moana releases in China Nov 25th. but I hope the good will from Zootopia will carry over, Chinese market is truly unpredictable.

Whoops, sorry for not keeping up with that news.

 

I don't thik that goodwill has anything to do with it, though. Otherwise Finding Dory would have done better.

[Fullbuster]

Zootopia had a detective feel that pleased Chinese audiences, but Moana is more likely to have Frozen-like numbers there. $70-90m seems about right.

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

Zootopia had a detective feel that pleased Chinese audiences, but Moana is more likely to have Frozen-like numbers there. $70-90m seems about right.

Yep, I think that's what did it. Zootopia tapped into a genre popular with Chinese audiences, similar to the Kung Fu Panda movies.

[NCsoft]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Yep, I think that's what did it. Zootopia tapped into a genre popular with Chinese audiences, similar to the Kung Fu Panda movies.

 

In that case "From the makers of Zootopia.." might help Moana just a little bit, I'm sure Dory didn't have those since its Pixar, not that Chinese audiences can tell the difference

[Olive]

Tuesday est.
Mechanic: Resurrection - ￥19.6M/207M 
Operation Mekong - ￥8.3m/￥10.95m
Heartfall Arises -  ￥6.5m/93.7m
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back - ￥4.6m/47M 
I Belonged to You - ￥2.2m/￥802m
The BFG - ￥1.05m/￥138m
Dragon Ball Z: F -- ￥0.38m/10M

[Olive]

I'm afraid Moana won't do as good as you guys expect, Frozen was delayed for more than two months, when it opened here, it had a lot of buzz.

I don't feel any excitement for Moana, it may turn another Inside Out.

 

As for presales for this week's openers, Inferno looks not so hot, maybe 100-120M yuan OW, but it will face Doctor Strange next week.

Trolls will bomb, 30-40M OW and 100M total .

[MinaTakla]

Happy birthday @Olive!

Edited October 25, 2016 by MinaTakla

[James]

The FB predictions around here make me sad. Let's hope it will do over 100m.

[EVANGELyang]

Just lower your expectation for Moana (at least on box office)

[Jason]

11 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

Wow, what the hell happened?

 

Over in the "What Year Will China Pass Domestic?" thread @No Prisoners has made a few excellent posts explaining why Chinese box office growth would be likely to slow down or more recently, why it is slowing down. Essentially there's generally a natural ceiling of gross box office relative to the GDP of a country (about 0.05-0.07%), and extrapolations of continuing rapid growth were ignoring the existence of that ceiling. Now that the China's box office is close to that ceiling, we should expect annual growth to be similar to rate of GDP growth instead of the rapid expansion of previous years. I think this is his most recent post describing the subject in full:

 

[bangbingchan]

16 hours ago, cannastop said:

Under $50m or ￥340m is just the most likely result in China. The best way to predict a breakout in China is to see if it's had surprising results in any other country.

 

BTW, it's probably going to be February when Moana reaches China.

Moana might not be very well in China.Under Dory won't surprise me.

FB may move to Nov 25.

 

update my prediction 

DS 800M Nov.4

FB 500~550M  Nov.25

Moana 100~200M Nov.25

Allied 50~70M  Nov.23 

Miss Peregrine 250M~300M Dec.2

Sully 70~100M Dec.9

Edited October 25, 2016 by bangbingchan

[bangbingchan]

1 hour ago, James said:

The FB predictions around here make me sad. Let's hope it will do over 100m.

The new release date is upset.￥500M is Okay for FB. around $70~80M

Edited October 25, 2016 by bangbingchan

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, bangbingchan said:

The new release date is upset.￥500M is Okay for FB. around $70~80M

Fantastics Beast will make more than $80M.

Edited October 25, 2016 by efialtes76

[Gavin Feng]

Iger should kill himself if Moana do less than Dory