China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Olive]

18 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Tracking systems run by independent organizations? 

some are partly state-owned, some not.

We can judge from online-share for example to see a movie whether fudged.

And the numbers are too transparent to be fudged now ,even SARFT's app is updating numbers very 10 minutes.

[Gavin Feng]

44 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Do we trust the numbers coming from the Chinese government? 

Don't.

 

Actually, Universal's The Fate of the Furious never got any showtimes here. Chinese never saw any Paramount's TF movie. SW7 is keeping running from 20 months ago, and it is the highest-grossing film with $1m. The truth is, we can't be able to pay 5 dollars ticket.

 

Who really believe Resident Evil 6 > RO, xXx > GOTG2, Mummy > WW?

Edited August 5, 2017 by Gavin Feng

[Xiaoshu]

400M Sat?

[Gavin Feng]

9 minutes ago, Xiaoshu said:

400M Sat?

Maybe. 40M higher than last SUN (366M) at the same point.

[Tauren Warlock]

What will be the final gross for WW2?

 

Can Dunkirk breach $100 million or more in China?

[Olive]

8 minutes ago, Tauren Warlock said:

What will be the final gross for WW2?

 

Can Dunkirk breach $100 million or more in China?

Most believe WW2 can challenge 5B yuan!

Dunkirk didn't breakout in HK and SK, so don't have high hopes in China, maybe 400-500M yuan at best.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

1 hour ago, vc2002 said:

Fierce and crazy competition is actually the result of years of venture capitals' involvement in movie business. Basically venture capitals in China make every type of business they involve in crazy if they think it's worth it. Taxi Calling App, Food Delivery App, and now Bike-Sharing. It actually needs to happen in a perfect timing. You need a fast growing business in a huge & yet still fast growing market, and you also need the market to have grown to a certain level that venture capital has already been a major player in this market. That's why we dont see that kind of craziness anywhere else in the world.

 

I reckon the same thing happened in Taxi Calling app & Food Delivery App will happen again in movie business. We will see buyouts & mergers and then we will see something like big 3 or even big 2 after everything is settled. I dont think there will be big 6 because thanks to the "evil" venture capitals, the Matthew effect is too strong in this business to allow that many leaders to co-exist. It won't be a "winner takes everything" situation like Didi Chuxing tho, because the entertainment business is much more strictly supervised by the government.

Hmm, makes sense.

 

But the theory of "evil" venture capitals cannot explain why big 6 have coexisted for so long in the US. (Though I will not be surprised if Paramount someday is eaten by the Mickey Mouse at this rate...).

 

I believe there will be big 6 or even big 8 in China in the movie business as China is potentially a bigger market than the US. CFGC is always there; Huayi, Bona, Enlight seems already well established; Beijing Culture, Huace still growing; Wanda, LeVP might be failing though... Movie is about "cultural creativity". It is very different to Taxi-hauling, Bike-sharing, Food Delivery & all the other O2O/B2C businesses. The latters can be fully Internet-enabled but I doubt film production will ever be tamed by the Internet. Alibaba claims to achieve so but what have they done other than one "crap movie" after another? I dont see they succeeding despite constant money burning and changing of CEOs.

 

Venture capitals or Internet giants or whatever lacking respect for film deserve the failure of minimum guarantee deals and such.

Edited August 5, 2017 by firedeep

[FantasticBeasts]

Chinese box office is like 10 times more interesting to watch that American!!!

[A Marvel Fanboy]

This Saturday or Sunday should be the peak (highest-grossing) day for WW2.  It's like a super-sized Zootopia or Dangal!

[Gavin Feng]

1 hour ago, Tauren Warlock said:

What will be the final gross for WW2?

 

Can Dunkirk breach $100 million or more in China?

I believe Dunkirk total gross < Wolf Warrior 2 first SUN = 366M

[vc2002]

4 hours ago, firedeep said:

Hmm, makes sense.

 

But the theory of "evil" venture capitals cannot explain why big 6 have coexisted for so long in the US. (Though I will not be surprised if Paramount someday is eaten by the Mickey Mouse at this rate...).

 

I believe there will be big 6 or even big 8 in China in the movie business as China is potentially a bigger market than the US. CFGC is always there; Huayi, Bona, Enlight seems already well established; Beijing Culture, Huace still growing; Wanda, LeVP might be failing though... Movie is about "cultural creativity". It is very different to Taxi-hauling, Bike-sharing, Food Delivery & all the other O2O/B2C businesses. The latters can be fully Internet-enabled but I doubt film production will ever be tamed by the Internet. Alibaba claims to achieve so but what have they done other than one "crap movie" after another? I dont see they succeeding despite constant money burning and changing of CEOs.

 

Venture capitals or Internet giants or whatever lacking respect for film deserve the failure of minimum guarantee deals and such.

 

I've explained that in my post. Check again

 

A: a fast growing business (movie business) in a huge & yet still fast growing market (China);

B: the market has grown to a certain level that venture capital has already been a major player in this market.

 

North America developed into a mature film market long before venture capital became a major player. China really is just a special case who hit the perfect timing, and I dont think we could see that kind of crazy activity in any other country in the foreseeable future. India has the market size potential (due to the country economic growth) but the market itself is very much already developed.

 

Chinese movie market could've been evolving in a more healthy way had venture capitals not been heavily involved, but then on the other hand it wouldn't have grown this fast.

 

Money can buy "cultural creativity". Movie-making is of cause not the same as Taxi-calling or Bike-sharing, but it's still a very Capital-Oriented business, which venture capitals involvement just made it even more so. It does allow more major players to co-exist because the products of movie-making vary a lot more than those of the internet-based services. So I think eventually we will have more than one major player but less than big 6. (Not counting stated-owned such CFGC of cause.)

 

BTW Huayi's movie-related business is hitting new lows. I wouldn't be surprised if in the future Alibaba or Tencent goes "fuck it I'm gonna let my money pave my way" and buy out one of those such as Huayi.

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2017 by vc2002

[XO21]

The Hollywood movies block actually saved them 

[redfirebird2008]

5 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Don't.

 

Actually, Universal's The Fate of the Furious never got any showtimes here. Chinese never saw any Paramount's TF movie. SW7 is keeping running from 20 months ago, and it is the highest-grossing film with $1m. The truth is, we can't be able to pay 5 dollars ticket.

 

Who really believe Resident Evil 6 > RO, xXx > GOTG2, Mummy > WW?

Joke about it all you want. They block basic information from their people. So no, I don't trust them. Hell, I don't trust a damn thing from Western governments either. 

[vc2002]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Joke about it all you want. They block basic information from their people. So no, I don't trust them. Hell, I don't trust a damn thing from Western governments either. 

 

Hey that creates a parodox. What if the US government tells you that you shouldn't trust the Chinese government?

 

[redfirebird2008]

9 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

 

Hey that creates a parodox. What if the US government tells you that you shouldn't trust the Chinese government?

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

380m + going to happen. Slightly less than 5x PS

Sunday PS tracking 90m+ for at least a 15% increase. The PS multi may decrease again but sunday should still increase.  Maoyan has friday at 260m. Its got SW7s second weekend and $150m beat. Possibly 1040m/$155m

If sunday makes it to 400m then it could have an 11th day over 200m on Monday. 

The week will be close to 1750m for a 3800m total.

40% drops going forward= 6200m/$922

50% drops = 5500m/$818m. Likely

60% drops= 5000m/$744m. Locked

Edited August 5, 2017 by POTUS

[Gavin Feng]

Wolf Warrior 2 will have IMAX version after Aug.18.

 

IMAX Entertainment must be tremendously jealous in those days.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

6 hours ago, vc2002 said:

 

I've explained that in my post. Check again

 

A: a fast growing business (movie business) in a huge & yet still fast growing market (China);

B: the market has grown to a certain level that venture capital has already been a major player in this market.

 

North America developed into a mature film market long before venture capital became a major player. China really is just a special case who hit the perfect timing, and I dont think we could see that kind of crazy activity in any other country in the foreseeable future. India has the market size potential (due to the country economic growth) but the market itself is very much already developed.

 

Chinese movie market could've been evolving in a more healthy way had venture capitals not been heavily involved, but then on the other hand it wouldn't have grown this fast.

 

Money can buy "cultural creativity". Movie-making is of cause not the same as Taxi-calling or Bike-sharing, but it's still a very Capital-Oriented business, which venture capitals involvement just made it even more so. It does allow more major players to co-exist because the products of movie-making vary a lot more than those of the internet-based services. So I think eventually we will have more than one major player but less than big 6. (Not counting stated-owned such CFGC of cause.)

 

BTW Huayi's movie-related business is hitting new lows. I wouldn't be surprised if in the future Alibaba or Tencent goes "fuck it I'm gonna let my money pave my way" and buy out one of those such as Huayi.

 

 

 

I see your point. But let's hope it not become true because monopoly is boring.

[Gavin Feng]

SAT

before service fees

Wolf Warrior 2  -  375.7m / 2,543m

Once Upon a Time  -  81.4m / 338.4m

The Founding of a Army  -  11.3m / 303.7m

Despicable Me 3  -  3.7m / 944.3m

 

after service fees

Wolf Warrior 2  -  401m / 2,731m (#1 of 2017, #2 in history)

Once Upon a Time  -  86.5m / 362.3m

The Founding of a Army  -  12m / 320.6m

Despicable Me 3  -  4m / 1,012m

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Sunday will increase again.

 

3.1B+1.5B+700M+300M=5.6b is locked at this point. 6B is possible (>50% possibility IMO).