China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

5 minutes ago, BoilingHotCoffee said:

Is Wolf Warriors 2 CHN > Avatar DOM at least guaranteed?

5.1b/$760m  is nearly certain

There always a chance demand falls sharply in week 4  

Edited August 4, 2017 by POTUS

[Olive]

25 minutes ago, POTUS said:

5.1b/$760m  is nearly certain

There always a chance demand falls sharply in week 4  

Week 4 competitions are weak, much weaker than week 3

[POTUS 2020]

WW2 heading to 240-250m. 6x PS

Tomorrow's PS tracking 65m+. 390m if it can repeat 6x. Showtimes bumping from 44 to 50% as OUT is fading hard. 

[Gavin Feng]

FRI

before service fees

Wolf Warrior 2  -  243.3m / 2,161m

Once Upon a Time  -  100.4m / 256.3m

The Founding of a Army  -  10.9m / 291.9m

Despicable Me 3  -  1.64m / 940.6m

 

after service fees

Wolf Warrior 2  -  261m / 2,324m

Once Upon a Time  -  107m / 273.3m

The Founding of a Army  -  10.6m / 308.4m

Despicable Me 3  -  1.76m / 1,008m

[NCsoft]

6 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

$800m seems a bit ambitious for a Hollywood movie don't you think? At least for the next few years..

For now maybe, but it looks like if Avatar 2 is on target, it should be released in early 2021 in China, considering Cameron's record in China (True Lies, Titanic and Avatar all achieved highest grossing film of all time status at release), I think $800 million is certainly possible, maybe even more. In fact, if Avatar 2 does $800M, it wouldn't actually be nearly as impressive as how Titanic and Avatar performed in China.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Avatar 2 can do $1B+. I am confident. 

Edited August 4, 2017 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

FRI

before service fees

Wolf Warrior 2  -  243.3m / 2,161m

Once Upon a Time  -  100.4m / 256.3m

The Founding of a Army  -  10.9m / 291.9m

Despicable Me 3  -  1.64m / 940.6m

 

after service fees

Wolf Warrior 2  -  261m / 2,324m

Once Upon a Time  -  107m / 273.3m

The Founding of a Army  -  10.6m / 308.4m

Despicable Me 3  -  1.76m / 1,008m

Deflated Friday increase due to not enough (evening  especially) showtimes

[POTUS 2020]

PS nearing 80m. That should be no less than 5x with friday being 6x. 60% bump?  400m+?

Incredible 

[Gavin Feng]

I just noticed that Huaying Tianxia could lose all money earned from Dangal.

 

It earned ￥300M from Dangal, then lost over ￥100M bcs of 2 local movies.

 

They also signed ￥600M box office minimum-guarantee agreement of Valerian.

[juni78ukr]

Why on earth chiinese distributors sign such insane deals?

[Olive]

8 consecutive days over 200M yuan(not including service fees), a new record.

[kswiston]

27 minutes ago, Olive said:

8 consecutive days over 200M yuan(not including service fees), a new record.

 

No domestic film has managed the USD equivalent of that for 8 straight days either. 

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

Why on earth chiinese distributors sign such insane deals?

 

Does not make sense at all. Even if market was open Valerian would struggle. Now it has horrible release date and is bombing in most markets. its insane that minimum guarantee would be signed for these projects. I could understand that it was done for TF5(even that was huge flop relative to expectations).

 

I am sure some distributor would sign 5B for Avatar and that would disappoint as welll.  

[vc2002]

6 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

Why on earth chiinese distributors sign such insane deals?

 

These distributors are almost all backed by or even partly owned by venture capitals, and venture capitals love gambling. With those insane deals, you either lose a shit load of money, or you hit the jackpot. A perfect game for venture capitals.

 

Venture capitals love gambling in a fast growing marketing, which itself is a sign of this marketing still being immature.

Edited August 5, 2017 by vc2002

[A Marvel Fanboy]

10 hours ago, juni78ukr said:

Why on earth chiinese distributors sign such insane deals?

 

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Does not make sense at all. Even if market was open Valerian would struggle. Now it has horrible release date and is bombing in most markets. its insane that minimum guarantee would be signed for these projects. I could understand that it was done for TF5(even that was huge flop relative to expectations).

 

I am sure some distributor would sign 5B for Avatar and that would disappoint as welll.  

 

3 hours ago, vc2002 said:

 

These distributors are almost all backed by or even partly owned by venture capitals, and venture capitals love gambling. With those insane deals, you either lose a shit load of money, or you hit the jackpot. A perfect game for venture capitals.

 

Venture capitals love gambling in a fast growing marketing, which itself is a sign of this marketing still being immature.

Fierce competition is another reason (maybe the most important one). Because there are so many distributors/players out there that signing minimum guarantee deal is the only way for a distributor to lock a project of high-quality before the producer seeks out a rival. In China, the status of "big six" is yet to occur, as such everyone is eager to take the high ground, by all means, when it is still possible.

 

The world is crazy.

[redfirebird2008]

10 hours ago, kswiston said:

 

No domestic film has managed the USD equivalent of that for 8 straight days either. 

 

Do we trust the numbers coming from the Chinese government? 

[druv10]

Saturday already over 164M, high 300s very likely with a shot at 400M, unbelievable. This is WW2 second Saturday, absolutely stunning!!!

[vc2002]

1 hour ago, firedeep said:

 

Fierce competition is another reason (maybe the most important one). Because there are so many distributors/players out there that signing minimum guarantee deal is the only way for a distributor to lock a project of high-quality before the producer seeks out a rival. In China, the status of "big six" is yet to occur, as such everyone is eager to take the high ground, by all means, when it is still possible.

 

 

The world is crazy.

Fierce and crazy competition is actually the result of years of venture capitals' involvement in movie business. Basically venture capitals in China make every type of business they involve in crazy if they think it's worth it. Taxi Calling App, Food Delivery App, and now Bike-Sharing. It actually needs to happen in a perfect timing. You need a fast growing business in a huge & yet still fast growing market, and you also need the market to have grown to a certain level that venture capital has already been a major player in this market. That's why we dont see that kind of craziness anywhere else in the world.

 

I reckon the same thing happened in Taxi Calling app & Food Delivery App will happen again in movie business. We will see buyouts & mergers and then we will see something like big 3 or even big 2 after everything is settled. I dont think there will be big 6 because thanks to the "evil" venture capitals, the Matthew effect is too strong in this business to allow that many leaders to co-exist. It won't be a "winner takes everything" situation like Didi Chuxing tho, because the entertainment business is much more strictly supervised by the government.

Edited August 5, 2017 by vc2002

[Olive]

11 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Do we trust the numbers coming from the Chinese government? 

We have several tracking systems now , we can see easily which movies are fudged.

ww2 numbers are true, Army's are 30% fake.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Olive said:

We have several tracking systems now , we can see easily which movies are fudged.

ww2 numbers are true, Army's are 30% fake.

Tracking systems run by independent organizations?