China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[a2k]

1.75-1.80x is a healthy multiplier for AIW considering the sheer size of ow. A lot of CBMs that open less than 1/3rd of AIW's ~1270 struggle to hit 2x.

[1Robert1]

14 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

1.75-1.80x is a healthy multiplier for AIW considering the sheer size of ow. A lot of CBMs that open less than 1/3rd of AIW's ~1270 struggle to hit 2x.

 

It would be insane to say that around 355 mln is a disappointment, but it may not be enough to reach 2bln.

355 china, 665 dom, 980 os-china isn't locked. 

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

 

It would be insane to say that around 355 mln is a disappointment, but it may not be enough to reach 2bln.

355 china, 665 dom, 980 os-china isn't locked. 

Would be very very surprised if it misses $2b ww:

Can't see it failing to add 2.5x the 4th weekend dom even conservatively for $670.

$916 os-china after a 30 os-china weekend. $916+$30*2.1 = $980

$350 china the floor probably

$670+$980+$350=$2000

[Thrylos 7]

1 hour ago, A2k Raptor said:

Would be very very surprised if it misses $2b ww:

Can't see it failing to add 2.5x the 4th weekend dom even conservatively for $670.

$916 os-china after a 30 os-china weekend. $916+$30*2.1 = $980

$350 china the floor probably

$670+$980+$350=$2000

Numbers are even better. It is at 918.5 os-China after a 32 million weekend. It will easily pass 2 billion worldwide but unfortunately fall short of TFA for a few million.

[Gavin Feng]

10 hours ago, Jaybee said:

Is the genre Chinese friendly ?

Very friendly.

[UserHN]

I think there's a big possibility that JW2 will cross $300M in China. I also think The Meg will cross $200M. Seems like the Chinese love movies with huge animals in it.

[1Robert1]

11 hours ago, A2k Raptor said:

Would be very very surprised if it misses $2b ww:

Can't see it failing to add 2.5x the 4th weekend dom even conservatively for $670.

$916 os-china after a 30 os-china weekend. $916+$30*2.1 = $980

$350 china the floor probably

$670+$980+$350=$2000

 

I'm not saying that this is impossible that IW will reach 2 bln, but it fell down 52.5% (dom) and 60% (os-china), so 2.5x (dom) and 2x(os-china) seems too generous. And i don't understand POTUS est.

ff8 58mln (yuan) mon 371 usd total, and IW 13 mln (yuan) monday and 340 usd total. And after that day ff8 made 17 mln usd more, and IW will do 21 mln usd more?

Edited May 22, 2018 by 1Robert1

[Gavin Feng]

Doraemon the Movie 2018 will open on Jun.1 in China.

 

(90%+ drop on 2nd wknd & 1.4 multiple for Solo confirmed!)

[Stewart]

6 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

(90%+ drop on 2nd wknd & 1.4 multiple for Solo confirmed!)

Was it not already? 

[peludo]

56 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

 

I'm not saying that this is impossible that IW will reach 2 bln, but it fell down 52.5% (dom) and 60% (os-china), so 2.5x (dom) and 2x(os-china) seems too generous.

It has dropped so high this weekend because of Deadpool release. Upcoming weekends should hold better.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Hold on your breath. We're in for a historical run.

 

OD Presales
	Ranger Solo	Blade Runner 2049	SW8
3 days + 5.5 hours before midnight	1 million 21.1k shows listed	1.755 million 17.3k shows listed	3.82 million 31.8k shows listed
2 days + 5.5 hours before midnight	1.42million 31.3k shows listed	2.46 million 24k shows listed	5.1 million 40k shows listed
1 day + 5.5 hours before midnight		3.37 million 35.6k shows listed	7.8 million 57.7k shows listed
5.5 hours before midnight		5.18 million 50.1k shows listed	12.8 million 84.4k shows listed
OD box office		16.5million 55.9k shows listed	65million 91.23k shows listed
Sat		19.6 million 48.9k shows listed	72.1 million 74.9k shows listed
Sun		14.6 million 41.6k shows listed	49.3 million 66.5k shows listed
OW total		50.7 million	186 million
Maoyan Score		7.2	7.7

[Asyulus]

Great news for IW. 

[Gavin Feng]

Escape Plan 2: Hades Jun.22

[Ephemeris]

2 hours ago, 1Robert1 said:

And i don't understand POTUS est.

ff8 58mln (yuan) mon 371 usd total, and IW 13 mln (yuan) monday and 340 usd total. And after that day ff8 made 17 mln usd more, and IW will do 21 mln usd more?

That Monday for FF8 was not a normal Monday; it was Labour Day. That's why FF8 dropped almost 70% on Tuesday. It also faced GotG2 the following Friday, which made it drop nearly 40% from Thursday. Meanwhile IW wasn't facing any strong new competition, so it could increase from Thursday instead of dropping. That's how IW's 4th weekend could beat FF8's 4th weekend, and how it could make a bit more than FF8 did after that Monday.

 

However, Doraemon is now getting released on that Friday so that probably changes things a bit... Not sure how big that movie will be in China, so I have no idea how much it would affect IW. Maybe others in this thread who know more about it than me can give an idea on how much it would cut into IW's numbers.

[Asyulus]

Doubt Doraemon will break out. Not alot of animated movies do well in China box office. Also, Doraemon is a Japanese franchise and property after all.

[peludo]

28 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

Doubt Doraemon will break out. Not alot of animated movies do well in China box office. Also, Doraemon is a Japanese franchise and property after all.

A Doraemon film already did $86m in China in 2015. It does not imply that this one will repeat that result, but it is not impossible for a film like this to make good numbers.

[Gavin Feng]

Pre-sale of Jurassic World 2 is about to start.

[1Robert1]

2 hours ago, peludo said:

It has dropped so high this weekend because of Deadpool release. Upcoming weekends should hold better.

 

It will hold better because of Memorial Day in usa, but Solo will affect os-china, don't forget that Deadpool is rated r movie and solo isn't. 

[1Robert1]

41 minutes ago, Ephemeris said:

That Monday for FF8 was not a normal Monday; it was Labour Day. That's why FF8 dropped almost 70% on Tuesday. It also faced GotG2 the following Friday, which made it drop nearly 40% from Thursday. Meanwhile IW wasn't facing any strong new competition, so it could increase from Thursday instead of dropping. That's how IW's 4th weekend could beat FF8's 4th weekend, and how it could make a bit more than FF8 did after that Monday.

 

However, Doraemon is now getting released on that Friday so that probably changes things a bit... Not sure how big that movie will be in China, so I have no idea how much it would affect IW. Maybe others in this thread who know more about it than me can give an idea on how much it would cut into IW's numbers.

 

It's not possible to say how Doraemon will affect IW, but Avengers ise already losing with this Chinese rom-com, so i think POTUS projections are too optimistic. 

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Pre-sale of Jurassic World 2 is about to start.

 

What would be a good starting number for it? I really hope it can be very succesfull in China.