China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

 

$120m?? Seems a bit high but I know next to nothing about the Chinese market

 

[eeetooki]

46 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

 

$120m?? Seems a bit high but I know next to nothing about the Chinese market

 

Wait what. Maoyan predicts 50m and this guy predicts 120??? LOL...

Don't get me wrong. I would love for it to get to 120m but...

[Issac Newton]

Seems like actual OD will fall behind Maoyan (¥46.536M) &TPP (¥43.353M) Forecast.

 

Real Time Forecast - as of now.

¥42.46M - TPP

¥38.94M - Maoyan 

 

Thursday PS is at ¥6.15M / 65K Shows ~ 121K admits.

[JustLurking]

14 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

Wait what. Maoyan predicts 50m and this guy predicts 120??? LOL...

Don't get me wrong. I would love for it to get to 120m but...

Maoyan cannot account for WOM, it just throws stuff out based on presales and daily trends

 

with these scores Oppenheimer could certainly have a leggy run and in that case maoyan prediction doesn't mean anything - though there is precedent where films can't break out regardless of WOM, so we'll see how things play out

[eeetooki]

14 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Maoyan cannot account for WOM, it just throws stuff out based on presales and daily trends

 

with these scores Oppenheimer could certainly have a leggy run and in that case maoyan prediction doesn't mean anything - though there is precedent where films can't break out regardless of WOM, so we'll see how things play out

 

I mean...I know that...but to get to 120m that would be like almost triple the Maoyan forecast. It would need the kind of WOM like Creation of Gods, which is unlikely.

[Issac Newton]

23 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Seems like actual OD will fall behind Maoyan (¥46.536M) &TPP (¥43.353M) Forecast.

 

Real Time Forecast - as of now.

¥42.46M - TPP

¥38.94M - Maoyan 

 

Thursday PS is at ¥6.15M / 65K Shows ~ 121K admits.

Government app is lagging - OD as of now.

 

¥31.98M - Government

¥35.74M - Maoyan

¥36.29M - TPP

 

Midnight Actuals - ¥2.41M / 2,260 Shows ~ 48K admits.

Edited August 30, 2023 by Issac Newton

[JustLurking]

18 minutes ago, eeetooki said:

 

I mean...I know that...but to get to 120m that would be like almost triple the Maoyan forecast. It would need the kind of WOM like Creation of Gods, which is unlikely.

not really? I've seen stuff go well over triple of maoyan's initial prediction even just this summer - again, if the trend shows the onset of a leggy run they will adjust it, if not they won't

 

the scores are fantastic, but sometimes people don't go watch the film regardless

Edited August 30, 2023 by JustLurking

[Giorno]

Luiz projections aren't meant to be taken seriously, let's see how the next couple days go and it will become clear how oppenheimer will do

[The GOAT]

6 hours ago, The GOAT said:

Half way mark (3pm?)

~ $3.87M
 

 

10pm. $5.1M.

Seems super front loaded.
Skews heavily male and young adult.

Fanboy heavy?

2nd place ran at a much faster pace. 

Edited August 30, 2023 by The GOAT

[Borobudur]

11 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

10pm. $5.1M.

Seems super front loaded.
Skews heavily male and young adult.

Fanboy heavy?

2nd place ran at a much faster pace. 

If WOM didn't help, Oppy will start slipping to 2nd place as soon as tomorrow. 

[Giorno]

its a 3 hour drama on a weekday that isn't a holiday and thursday is a normal work day

[Issac Newton]

Regional Dominance

 

 

Purple for Oppenheimer &Navy Blue for No More Bets 

[The GOAT]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Regional Dominance

 

 

Purple for Oppenheimer &Navy Blue for No More Bets 

Looks better than Mission Impossible at least 🥴

[Issac Newton]

Oppenheimer

 

Thursday Forecast - ¥25.942M / ¥313M Final

 

For sure, No More Bets will win weekend again. Wednesday was just ¥3M away from No.1

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Oppenheimer

 

Thursday Forecast - ¥25.942M / ¥313M Final

 

For sure, No More Bets will win weekend again. Wednesday was just ¥3M away from No.1

As per TTP Forecast, Thursday will be narrow battle -

 

Thursday Forecast (NMB/Opp)

¥32.183M / ¥25.942M - Maoyan 

¥29.014M / ¥28.803M - Taopiaopiao 

 

Maoyan Forecast a finishing line of ¥3.896B for NMB vs ¥3.906M by TPP. For Opp, TPP looking into ¥337M Final. 

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

sounds just like SK where it was presale-heavy leading to false expectations. Maybe strong WOM would translate to better legs but idk why Fran thinks it can do $120m+

[Issac Newton]

36 minutes ago, Giorno said:

its a 3 hour drama on a weekday that isn't a holiday and thursday is a normal work day

Yeah, I can see how runtime is affecting here. Except for Shanghai &Beijing, Oppenheimer doesn't have grounds in Show Counts in any region where No More Bets continue to lead.

 

Oppenheimer won No.1 in all 10 Major Metropolitan Cities except Chongqing, where No More Bets leads - ¥1.01M (2,763 Shows) vs ¥900K (1,961 Shows)

Edited August 30, 2023 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

And in Tiers, Oppenheimer leads Tier 1 &2 while 3 &4 is in the hands of No More Bets.

[MrPink]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

sounds just like SK where it was presale-heavy leading to false expectations. Maybe strong WOM would translate to better legs but idk why Fran thinks it can do $120m+

 

This happened with Dunkirk too.

 

Is 50m a realistic target? Probably the number it needs to have a good shot at topping Bohemian Rhapsody WW

[Issac Newton]

Wednesday Estimates

 

1. Oppenheimer - ¥39.41M (i.p. ¥2.41M)

2. No More Bets - ¥34.20M / ¥3,496M
3. Papa - ¥15.90M / ¥482M
4. Creation of the Gods I: Kingdom of Storms - ¥9.85M / ¥2,472M
5. The Women In The Storm - ¥4.40M / ¥139M