Breaking Dawn Part 1 OS Thread - UPDATED: $430,884,723

[druv10]

Can BD1 break 400M OS?

[CJohn]

I can't see it doing less than 50M on Saturday. And I wouldn't be shocked with something close to 60M (very unlikely to happen). Sunday is hard to predict. Some places drop a lot, like America, but others increase or stay flat. I would say 35-40M.

[CJohn]

Of course it can. New Moon did it, and Eclipse was very close.

[Fake]

It is very hard to a break down, because the markets don't work all in the same way.

I had once done a very long calculation for it. I averaged out the Sat-Sun trends for most major markets keeping into account the size of the markets (weighted mean). The conclusion was that in summet, Sun is generally flat from Sat while in winter it decreases by about 10-15%

[kayumanggi]

So where is this "It's dropping in many markets" talk coming from?

[CJohn]

Mainly Australia, I think.

Edited November 20, 2011 by CJohn

[tracygee]

This is not official, but...Twilight Poison (a well known Spanish/English Twi site) is reporting huge sales in Mexico. I guess Monday is a holiday there, and she is saying the entire country has basically sold out all screenings through Monday. I don't think that's possible, but I think it's an indication of a very strong three-day weekend in that nation.

[CJohn]

I can believe in that. Because I saw what happened here. Saturday shows were lalmost all sold out at Friday night. Everywhere.

[CJohn]

So where is this "It's dropping in many markets" talk coming from?

Haters? I know that in Australia it is dropping a lot, but in the rest of the world...

[Totem]

So where is this "It's dropping in many markets" talk coming from?

The first 2 or 3 markets we got were drops, significant one, I regret making the call so early, Twilight proved me wrong again.

[CJohn]

This franchise proved everyone wrong. At Wednesday I thought BDI wouldn't touch 65M OD. Guess what? It did over 70M.

[kayumanggi]

Really great for the film. I think the great WOM among fans is working. And the non-fans are being curious about

Bella's death.

[kayumanggi]

Haters? I know that in Australia it is dropping a lot, but in the rest of the world...

Interestingly, Australia usually mirrors the US, but it didn't this time.

[CJohn]

I am quite shocked with is drop there.

[Totem]

Twilight has turned into a bit of a running joke here, I think more and more people have been put off by it because of all the hate you get for saying you want to see it.

[CJohn]

Really? That explains a lot...

[iceroll]

If anyone else has predictions they'd like me to add to the first post, let me know. We can see who's closest.

[kayumanggi]

LOL. :lol:

[kayumanggi]

If anyone else has predictions they'd like me to add to the first post, let me know. We can see who's closest.

Can I give a range? Maybe 390 M - 440 M.

[CJohn]

435M OS total