Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[The Futurist]

Katniss has now stomach cramps because of the laughters.She could nail the entire dwarves assembly with one arrow.Swoosh !!!!

[fishstick]

ENOUGH OF THIS SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Franchises behave like a clock. All of them. LOTR has always been a weak Friday player and strong Saturday one. OK, maybe not in its OW but later yes very much so. Wait and see. Like I said, I`d love to be proved wrong and have TH with low Friday and every other day. But that`s not the franchise pattern unless TH is seriously strayning from LOTR pattern. I`m objective about those things. yes, I hate Shitto and PJ and Ringers but I`m objective about franchise`s boxoffice run.Also, remember $8 mio midnight? Early numbers are always underestimated. Which is why I didn`t get my hopes high that $8 mio was real. I was first to say this is family stuff so midnight doesn`t reflect real audience. And boom, it jumped. Dammit it did. Grrrrr. But you get my point. Get past either bias and just focus on facts, people.

[The Futurist]

Who said that?

The Hobbit along with TDKR was sure to be a 400/450 maybe even 500 m grosser because, you know, it s the prequel to one of the most beloved trilogy EVAH !!!It's peter Jackson, there s Gollum ...Planet Earth would fall in love with Bombur and his friends, they are so charismatic and sexy !

[rockNrollaDIM]

Who said that?

Everyone six months ago. 400m was allegedly the floor and THG had no chance to stay above TH. yeah right!

[lab276]

ENOUGH OF THIS SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Franchises behave like a clock. All of them. LOTR has always been a weak Friday player and strong Saturday one. OK, maybe not in its OW but later yes very much so. Wait and see. Like I said, I`d love to be proved wrong and have TH with low Friday and every other day. But that`s not the franchise pattern unless TH is seriously strayning from LOTR pattern. I`m objective about those things. yes, I hate Shitto and PJ and Ringers but I`m objective about franchise`s boxoffice run.Also, remember $8 mio midnight? Early numbers are always underestimated. Which is why I didn`t get my hopes high that $8 mio was real. I was first to say this is family stuff so midnight doesn`t reflect real audience. And boom, it jumped. Dammit it did. Grrrrr. But you get my point. Get past either bias and just focus on facts, people.

We are through the looking glass...

[Gopher]

37m is very good by itself... not if 35% of that was from midnights as estimates suggest. That would indicate a 25%+ drop for Saturday even if matinees shoot up tomorrow.

But let's see! It could bump up to low-mid 40s which wouldn't be so surprising.

Edited December 15, 2012 by Gopher

[lab276]

The Hobbit along with TDKR was sure to be a 400/450 maybe even 500 m grosser because, you know, it s the prequel to one of the most beloved trilogy EVAH !!!It's peter Jackson, there s Gollum ...Planet Earth would fall in love with Bombur and his friends, they are so charismatic and sexy !

Everyone six months ago. 400m was allegedly the floor and THG had no chance to stay above TH. yeah right!

I honestly can't remember that. I was pretty sure people were saying 400m towards the high end. Although I didn't really stick around The Hobbit threads, and when I did, it was mainly the OS ones.

[MovieMan89]

ENOUGH OF THIS SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Franchises behave like a clock. All of them. LOTR has always been a weak Friday player and strong Saturday one. OK, maybe not in its OW but later yes very much so. Wait and see. Like I said, I`d love to be proved wrong and have TH with low Friday and every other day. But that`s not the franchise pattern unless TH is seriously strayning from LOTR pattern. I`m objective about those things. yes, I hate Shitto and PJ and Ringers but I`m objective about franchise`s boxoffice run.Also, remember $8 mio midnight? Early numbers are always underestimated. Which is why I didn`t get my hopes high that $8 mio was real. I was first to say this is family stuff so midnight doesn`t reflect real audience. And boom, it jumped. Dammit it did. Grrrrr. But you get my point. Get past either bias and just focus on facts, people.

:worthy:Oh my god fish, I love you so much right now. If all haters could be that logical the world of message boards would be so much better.

[The Futurist]

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

NL

$489,419,200

$377,845,905

12/17/03

2

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

NL

$458,338,700

$342,551,365

12/18/02

3

The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

NL

$435,106,300

$315,544,750

12/19/01

That s why predictions were so high for TH if you take the original trilogy gross in adjusted dollars, without 3d.

Edited December 15, 2012 by The Futurist

[fishstick]

Everyone six months ago. 400m was allegedly the floor and THG had no chance to stay above TH. yeah right!

problem with THG predictions is like with Twilight - most geeks aren`t into YA and don`t want big things to happen so they always underpredict. Every single Twilight movie had comments like "I don`t feel the buzz, doesn`t feel like event, the fad has faded, the franchise has peaked with NM, won`t make more than previous movie" and they were wrong every time.

[Poseidon]

@fishnets: There never was a 8m midnight number.

Edited December 15, 2012 by Poseidon

[fishstick]

:worthy:Oh my god fish, I love you so much right now. If all haters could be that logical the world of message boards would be so much better.

I love you too. I don`t want boxoffice discussion to suffer because of bias. We are here to sharpen our understanding of boxoffice and prediction power not to flamewar each other. I mena, flamewars are fun but competent discussion is fun and educative.

[lab276]

If it opens to $90m, then with IAL's multi, it gets $300m. It will do better than IAL over Christmas. Mid-300s looks to be where it finishes. Even though it's at the low end of expectations, I'd still call it good.

Edited December 15, 2012 by lab276

[rb02]

Now this is bordering on Disaster territory.

Disaster?

Let's assume a composite 800M for the entire trilogy.

Then let's assume that this movie "only" makes 100 OW.

And 300M DOM and 900M WW.

An incredibly conservative estimate.

Multiply that by 2.5, and only 2.5 if you want to assume that the next two will be even bigger "disasters".

Do you have any idea how much money is made with this "disaster"?

Hundreds of millions.

This would be a disaster- 30M OW, 90M DOM, 250 WW.

Think it is going to sport total numbers like that?

No?

Then spare me the use of words like "disaster".

It's a smash hit, period, point blank. The only variable is how many hundreds of millions it makes.

[Poseidon]

ENOUGH OF THIS SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Franchises behave like a clock. All of them. LOTR has always been a weak Friday player and strong Saturday one. OK, maybe not in its OW but later yes very much so. Wait and see. Like I said, I`d love to be proved wrong and have TH with low Friday and every other day. But that`s not the franchise pattern unless TH is seriously strayning from LOTR pattern. I`m objective about those things. yes, I hate Shitto and PJ and Ringers but I`m objective about franchise`s boxoffice run.

So if franchises tick like a clock... tell me what it means for "The Hobbit" that it's midnight/OD multiplier is probably much lower than ROTKs and most important: What does it mean, that "The Hobbit" (judging by early numbers) is barely beating ROTKs opening wednesday with 10 years of inflation, 3D and more frontloadedness? Edited December 15, 2012 by Poseidon

[rb02]

problem with THG predictions is like with Twilight - most geeks aren`t into YA and don`t want big things to happen so they always underpredict. Every single Twilight movie had comments like "I don`t feel the buzz, doesn`t feel like event, the fad has faded, the franchise has peaked with NM, won`t make more than previous movie" and they were wrong every time.

Fishnets, I like and appreciate your recent posts, the moreso because you have been a detractor who still maintains objectivity. That said, I must nitpick with your post in one way. It's not the geeks that are supporting this film; in fact, for the most part, the AICN weirdies are railing on it. It's the general audience that is making this a hit.

[John Marston]

hmm, so is this backlash against the LOTR trilogy that people were talking about actually exist I guess?

[John Wars]

LOLHobbit is bombing. All year all we heard is 500m domestic. That's long gone. Not even close.

except for a couple of fanboys no one was predicting that

[MovieMan89]

hmm, so is this backlash against the LOTR trilogy that people were talking about actually exist I guess?

Yep, destroying the December OW. Whatta backlash!!!!

[rb02]

Making hundreds of millions of dollars- I wish my own career had that kind of "backlash".