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Weekend Estimates Hobbit 36.7 pg 33

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flopbit is really flopping. it is a 1 film movie a short amount of content only. studios think they are smarter than audiences? audiences arent stupid to donate profits to film companies. the film, the content has to be good, and it wasnt. the RT score is only 65% and in a strong yr for filmmaking , its not even a top 10 major film critically. looks like barely getting 250m in domestic, and about 580 overseas. total should finish around 840-850million.its combined total budget is around $400m or so incl advertisingFrom its bulbous goblin king to its nearly three-hour running time to its budget — an estimated $400 million, including global marketing costssource for budgethttp://artsbeat.blog...the-box-office/850 * 45% studio average profit = 382million.in summary 400m cost vs 382 profit portion, it doesnt stand to break even on theatrical run. also my worldwide figure of 580m is in the middle upper range.when compared to LOTR inflation adjusted, this is so bad it doesnt merit comparisonthis disappointment does not bode well for the sequel. its sequel goes from being hotly anticipated to just 'meh'. i dont think marketing is a big deal, the content has to be good

well said.
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OK, now I'm a bit concerned. Still think it can outperform IAL in the long run, but suddenly 300m is not going to be as easy as I once thought. I've been saying it was going to underperform compared to the fans lofty expectations since it was announced, but I really thought the legs would be better than a 73% drop on Friday from its OD.

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The audience aren't stupid? There are a lot here.

well a lot of deserving flops this yr indicate audiences dont view poor content. there are many examples, the worst being john carter. exceptions do occur, the twilight and transformers franchises have imdb ratings less than 6, yet gross quite well overall. this is because they capture the teen market. the hobbit does not capture this mkt.it doesnt help hobbits marketing budget is probably the highest of all films this year, with tdkr and avengers. its advertising is a lot higher than its production cost Edited by Halba
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OK, now I'm a bit concerned. Still think it can outperform IAL in the long run, but suddenly 300m is not going to be as easy as I once thought. I've been saying it was going to underperform compared to the fans lofty expectations since it was announced, but I really thought the legs would be better than a 73% drop on Friday from its OD.

I schooled you, didn't i? ;)
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