19th SAG Awards (Winners in 1st Post) Skyfall wins Stunt Ensemble

[riczhang]

Lincoln is still far from dead at the Oscars. Like I said, the Oscars are obviously doing their own thing this year, and Lincoln is still the most Oscar-esque movie nominated this year. In fact I can see how Lincoln could be an Oscar only type of a movie, which is why the other award shows aren't going for it.

 

 

We'll see how it fares at BAFTA, but with a Spielberg snub I think Actor could end up being its only prize. 

[Impact]

Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA and the SAG. Just saying.

And the WGA also.

[MovieMan89]

What was so special about Argo's ensemble? I don't get it at all. Not even Top 5.

 

Agreed, which makes its win all the more strange. I mean  you had dynamite performances from DDL, Field, and TLJ in Lincoln along with half a dozen other strong supporting performances. Arkin was the best performance in Argo, and even he was hardly noteworthy. Very odd choice here.

Edited January 28, 2013 by HobbitMan89

[The Futurist]

I think people should come to terms with the fact this is a very unusual year and nothing is set in stone for best picture.

[fishstick]

If not for the Affleck Best Director snub at the Oscars, this awards season would be a lock for Argo. As it stands, Argo is still in front, but not the clear winner yet.

 

Eh, it`s much more complicated than that. Guilds crossover with AMPAS but many mmebers aren`t AMPAS members. So percetage of AMPAS members who crossover with guilds clearly supported different movies and directors. Affleck is definitely experiencing a renessaince due to his snub but that doesn`t mean he would have been sweeping had he been nominated. And, as I already pointed out, he`s doing great with Guilds who are bigger than AMPAS. I can imagine that younger people are sympathetic to him. But they may not be AMPAS members.

 

Movies that have director and picture nominations aren`t dead because they received more support. It`s possible that Argo tsunami splashes AMPAS and the movie takes the crown but since director isn`t nominated it would be a split. With whom? Spielberg? There isn`t any sign that they want to give him his third Oscar. They want to give it to DDL. I guess 2 would be too much. So that leaves former winner Lee and no winners Russell, Hanneke and Zeitlin. Unless DGA go with someone who isn`t Affleck (assuming it isn`t Bigelow either) we won`t know what side the wind blows.

Edited January 28, 2013 by fishnets

[Impact]

Beasts of Southern Wilds will win NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[CloneWars]

And the WGA also.

And GG as well.

 

I think Lincoln is winning this.

[Impact]

Exactly. Departed only won the DGA and thats it.

[MovieMan89]

Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA and the SAG. Just saying.

 

 

Exactly, and it was never the Oscar frontrunner. Some years Oscars do there own thing. This is one of those years. Argo can't be totally ruled out with all its won so far, but it would be a far more shocking BP than Lincoln winning. And who's gonna beat Spielberg in director? None of the other 4 have won any director awards either and they all seem like longshots.

[Gopher]

Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA and the SAG. Just saying.

 

LMS won before the PGA changed its system to the preferential ballot voting that the Oscars use today. Now it's about awarding the most agreeable film rather than the one with the most passionate support. Crash would NOT have won under today's system. 

 

IMO it's clear that the Affleck snub has put Argo in the spotlight more than it actually hurt the film's chances. Everyone's rushing to sympathize for Affleck. With the Globe, the Critic's Choice award, the SAG award and the PGA award in its pocket, Argo is most definitely the frontrunner right now. 

[Impact]

Oh my gosh-conspiracy-both had Arkin

[riczhang]

And the WGA also.

 

 

Yeah, but WGA means nothing. They disqualify half of the legitimate competition.

[Impact]

Apollo 13 in 1995 was the frontrunner but no nod for Howard at the Oscars.

In 1985 Color Purple was the frontrunner-Spielberg was snubbed.

[riczhang]

Exactly, and it was never the Oscar frontrunner. Some years Oscars do there own thing. This is one of those years. Argo can't be totally ruled out with all its won so far, but it would be a far more shocking BP than Lincoln winning. And who's gonna beat Spielberg in director? None of the other 4 have won any director awards either and they all seem like longshots.

 

If Argo picks up DGA, and BAFTA then it's done. And, I don't think Spielberg is locked. Not at all. 

[fishstick]

Exactly. Departed only won the DGA and thats it.

 

Apples and Oranges. Departed may have won DGA only but there was a huge hype that Scorcese should finally win the Oscar and that really means BD and BP. OTOH, who`s clamoring for Spileberg`s 3d?

[The Dark Alfred]

I would be happy with an Argo/Spielberg split. 

[Impact]

Apples and Oranges. Departed may have won DGA only but there was a huge hype that Scorcese should finally win the Oscar and that really means BD and BP. OTOH, who`s clamoring for Spileberg`s 3d?

But people were saying Departed would not win picture that year also.

[MovieMan89]

I think people should come to terms with the fact this is a very unusual year and nothing is set in stone for best picture.

 

 

I agree, nothing is locked for BP this year. I thought Lincoln was, but it just hasn't won anywhere else. I still think it will take the Oscar but there's some uncertainty there now.

[fishstick]

If Argo picks up DGA, and BAFTA then it's done. And, I don't think Spielberg is locked. Not at all. 

 

Spielberg isn`t locked because there`s no passion for awarding him again. Not even Crone clamors for it. Her concern is BP. Plus, considering that all the hype is on DDL shoulders, Linc is seen as his show, not as Spielberg`s.

[Impact]

I actually have a feeling Ang Lee might win the DGA.