19th SAG Awards (Winners in 1st Post) Skyfall wins Stunt Ensemble

[MovieMan89]

Exactly. They loved the movie, the average AMPAS voter is right in the film's target demographic. You guys all kinda wrote me off when I said that the film would connect with the Academy voters very well, because the movie is about aging and death and the Academy voters are right at that age where they can really respect and be emotionally impacted by the movie. But not so old that they're about to go through it, or their partner is going through it right now that they hate it. An actual member said that his mother hated the movie because her husband had gone through that very recently and she said, "I don't want to relive it." The member himself loved the film. 

 

 

Hell maybe you are right. I mean the Academy is a bunch of  old men that could easily connect to the subject. Amour is obviously capitalizing on that advantage. I just wish the subject matter could have been done in an even slightly interesting way that 90% of regular people could really connect with. I mean seriously, Amour makes Malick films look like general audience fare.

[riczhang]

I most certainly was not. May not have been predicting it, but I had it with maybe a 50% chance of a BP nom. I knew it'd get screenplay and had a good chance at Actress. Directing was the only surprise. It indeed did very well, but your argument is essentially: "They liked it enough to nominate it, therefore they liked it enough to give it the win."

 

I doubt enough Academy members have even seen the movie to give it majorities in anything other than Foreign Film.

 

EDIT: Actually, I won't rule out Screenplay either, even though I have Tarantino winning.

 

 

They all sure as hell have seen the film now. Amour's biggest challenge was to get enough people to see the film, and to make sure that people understood that it got the obligatory 1 week run in LA/NY and it was eligible for all categories. Those Amour FYC ads had in huge lettering, "ELIGIBLE IN ALL CATEGORIES INCLUDING BEST PICTURE" on them. 

 

And, I was confident in Amour all the way. I said in September that it'd get Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay, and Foreign Language noms. 

[baumer]

Riva will win be actress.

[Sims]

You can't deny that Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild were the passion plays of the race this year. Clearly more than enough voters saw those movies and loved them. 

 

Nominations and wins are very different things. Those films needed only 60 ish votes from the directing branch and a few hundred votes for their Picture noms. They probably need thousands of votes to win.

[riczhang]

Nominations and wins are very different things. Those films needed only 60 ish votes from the directing branch and a few hundred votes for their Picture noms. They probably need thousands of votes to win.

 

 

It got those prerequisite votes when a large majority of voters didn't even see the film. It got 70+ votes from the director's branch when many director's haven't seen the film. (In fact a lot of directors don't even get to see all the prestige films, let alone Amour). It got 5% with many people not having seen it. When all of AMPAS sees the film it's passionate support will go only one way, up. 

[Sims]

Riva will win be actress.

Yeah, again, this is based on nothing other than the 'oldest nominee ever' narrative. She's won nothing of importance. I won't say it's impossible, and she's probably #2 now, but it's a very, very uphill battle.

[Michael Gary Scott]

And so SLP dies. DeNiro is dead. Lawrence is still alive. Lincoln is on the verge of dying. It needs either DGA or BAFTA to have a shot at winning. No film has won without a single guild win before, and WGA doesn't count. Only exception was Braveheart.

Lawrence is the frontrunner.

[Gopher]

I think Amour has a reasonable shot at 3 Oscars- Actress, Screenplay and Foreign. That would be crazy for a foreign film, especially in such a competitive year.

[MovieMan89]

I think Amour has a reasonable shot at 3 Oscars- Actress, Screenplay and Foreign. That would be crazy for a foreign film, especially in such a competitive year.

 

It would be a crazy ass travesty too, since the infinitely superior A Separation and the masterpiece Pan's Labyrinth, received none of this undeserved Amour foreign love from the Academy.

Edited January 28, 2013 by HobbitMan89

[Michael Gary Scott]

Yeah i think lawrence will win. Shes won alot of the precursors.

[riczhang]

Lawrence is the frontrunner.

 

I didn't confirm nor deny that. I just said that SLP's only awards chance is Lawrence now. 

[The Futurist]

 

[rockNrollaDIM]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTLhlnBi3c0

 

@ her struggling with the chairs

 

Great speech.

[MovieMan89]

J Law was perfection tonight. I was happy to see her so happy, since I didn't get the impression winning was a big deal to her at the Globes. It was definitely a big deal to her tonight though, which always makes it cooler and more memorable to see.

[druv10]

Argo is the frontrunner for BP now and Affleck being snubbed is even more perplexing. 

[The Futurist]

Argo is the frontrunner for BP now and Affleck being snubbed is even more perplexing. 

Argo wouldn't be the frontrunner if Affleck hadn't got snubbed for best director.

 

That s the paradox of this whole situation.

[riczhang]

Argo is the frontrunner for BP now and Affleck being snubbed is even more perplexing. 

 

 

Argo's not yet. Lincoln still is, but it's dying fast and if it doesn't get a guild soon it'll be done for. 

[FilmBuff]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTLhlnBi3c0

 

@ her struggling with the chairs

 

Great speech.

Clumsy gal, how did JC lose to her? 

[rockNrollaDIM]

On a scal of 1-100 how Anne-oying was Hathaway speech?

[riczhang]

On a scal of 1-100 how Anne-oying was Hathaway speech?

 

 

It was perfection.