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Shawn Robbins

Weekend Discussion: IM3 @ 175.3m wknd est

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I think we're grasping at straws at that point though. Pre-sale activity is usually driven by fans until the final day or two before release, and they'll find a way to get a ticket. General audiences start purchasing tickets in those final days before release.

 

Fair enough. 

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Everytime I see midnight numbers from tentpole releases like this it really makes me that much more impressed with Deathly Hallows: Part 2.  I know their was a massive fanbase, it had 3D and represented roughly 25% of the OW, but still.  43.5 million!?  I remember I went to a 20 screen theater and EVERY ONE was sold out.  

 

Is there any movie that comes out this year that has the potential to break it?  My top pick would be Catching Fire but without 3D I just can't see it happening.

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you know that TA had 52% 3D share, right?

 

What does TA have to do with anything?

 

By my calculations:

 

TDK - 22.3M

SM3 - 22.0M

TA - 21.8M

 

Then there's the probability that both SM3 and TA were powered by younger skewing audiences than TDK was; children's tickets = lower prices.  For all intents and purposes, I consider all three of them even at 22M, with an accepted margin of error of a few hundred thousand tickets.  To definitively take the record in my mind, therefore, CF needs 22.5M.  With NO IMAX, that translates to ~181M with current prices.  With roughly a 15M IMAX OW, we're at ~188M, and with a 20M IMAX OW, we're at ~190M.

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Everytime I see midnight numbers from tentpole releases like this it really makes me that much more impressed with Deathly Hallows: Part 2.  I know their was a massive fanbase, it had 3D and represented roughly 25% of the OW, but still.  43.5 million!?  I remember I went to a 20 screen theater and EVERY ONE was sold out.  

 

Is there any movie that comes out this year that has the potential to break it?  My top pick would be Catching Fire but without 3D I just can't see it happening.

 

Agreed. And I can't see Potter's midnight record going down until SW7.

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Everytime I see midnight numbers from tentpole releases like this it really makes me that much more impressed with Deathly Hallows: Part 2.  I know their was a massive fanbase, it had 3D and represented roughly 25% of the OW, but still.  43.5 million!?  I remember I went to a 20 screen theater and EVERY ONE was sold out.  

 

Is there any movie that comes out this year that has the potential to break it?  My top pick would be Catching Fire but without 3D I just can't see it happening.

 

 

That record isn't going anywhere until possibly the return of Star Wars in 2015.

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Everytime I see midnight numbers from tentpole releases like this it really makes me that much more impressed with Deathly Hallows: Part 2.  I know their was a massive fanbase, it had 3D and represented roughly 25% of the OW, but still.  43.5 million!?  I remember I went to a 20 screen theater and EVERY ONE was sold out.  

 

Is there any movie that comes out this year that has the potential to break it?  My top pick would be Catching Fire but without 3D I just can't see it happening.

 

Nothing, not even with 3D in the near future.  Maybe SW:VII

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Agreed. And I can't see Potter's midnight record going down until SW7.

That's probably the best pick.  Keep forgetting about those because it's so surreal that the franchise is coming back.  But you're right.   The fandom is there to break it.

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