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keysersoze123

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Everything posted by keysersoze123

  1. keysersoze123
    Movies will not just drop but movies which had soft monday drops will drop hard today. It will look worse tomorrow 🙂 but then we are back to normal.
  2. keysersoze123
    Consolidating all AMC data AMC Prev - 33948/309285 $514609 1530 shows 11/11 AMD OD - overall 3497 shows 51159/739522 post 6PM 1683 shows 30838/356612 11/11 AMC D2 - overall 3652 shows 78719/764564 post 6PM 1663 shows 16656/354270 11/12 AMC D3 -overall 3512 shows 42301/738866 post 6PM 1585 shows 6446/334263 11/12 Interesting thing is Day 3 is greater than AMC though CIN is still overindexing. I will stick to Preview updates mostly to see the pace of increase and if possible will run Day 2 and occassionaly run Day1/3 as well. I ran Day 2 again around noon PST and it just completed and Day 2 ticket sales increased about 5300 tickets in past 24 hours. That is very similar to CIN increase yesterday.
  3. keysersoze123
    At this point there are too many variables and I dont have anything to compare with at macro level(AMC) to even hone in on number. I would say AMC+CIN should end up around 30-35%. Average ticket price for this would be lower and so it would need 350k+ tickets across 2 platform to hit 10m and 400K+ for 12m.
  4. keysersoze123
    But impact of lower ticket sales at mega cities have bigger impact than smaller cities. it does not even have dolby at lincoln square where tickets are 26.50 !!! That is equivalent to 3 tickets in smaller markets. I just posted above amc ontario mills where dolby tickets are 20 bucks. Metreon Imax/Dolby tickets are 24 and again F2 is not even having previews there. So my take is at this point its previews are all over the place. Over indexing in some markets and under indexing(sometimes significantly) in other markets. Let us see where things stand next week. I will run AMC previews daily but rest couple of times a week. its too cumbersome as each run takes 3-4 hours.
  5. keysersoze123
    Yes. At this point its all normal. Nothing out of ordinary. it should have another good drop the coming weekend then F2 Tsunami could impact depending on how many shows it loses that weekend.
  6. keysersoze123
    it all depends on reaction. Let us wait for OD and see where the Naver rating is. Keep an eye at https://movie.naver.com/movie/bi/mi/basic.nhn?code=136873
  7. keysersoze123
    it would be awful if Joker remained no:1 with such a low number. I hope something breaks out. Joker will keep chugging along whether its no:1 or 3. Who cares about records like how many weekends at no:1. What is important is raw number. I hope Joker makes 60m pounds in UK.
  8. keysersoze123
    I think since your data is Cinemark dominated it will over index.Keep that in mind as Cinemark to AMC ratio is way off the charts. Cost of underperformance in NYC is greater than those in smaller cities.
  9. keysersoze123
    You were just tracking AMC Ontario mills during TLK days right. That was around 1000 tickets sold by T-10 right. Frozen is at 368/1795 based on my run yesterday evening. AMC data is looking very skewed 🙂
  10. keysersoze123
    I dont think we have any PS data to compare with Dory. Plus 3 years is EONs when it comes to PS. So I think TS4/TLK is the best movies to compare. But being a fall release its Previews to OW multi will be higher. That is given looking at PS data we have.
  11. keysersoze123
    This is expected. PS will be huge considering how big the last movie was. Big question is how its perceived. That will be the defining factor as to where it ends. Anyway it will be HUGE. Question is how BIG.
  12. keysersoze123
    No chance. F2 is likely to drop 100m in Japan. That is too much to expect China to make up for. Its Europe and Latin America which can increase to make up. Korea needs to hold fort as well. That despite excellent PS is a hard task.
  13. keysersoze123
    So most likely its dropping from last one like most sequels this year. I wont be surprised.
  14. keysersoze123
    AMC F2 OD - overall 3497 shows 51159/739522 post 6PM 1683 shows 30838/356612 This is good 15% below CIN. Good news is its well above Previews. I would hopefully have Day 3 numbers today as well. Then we can look at overall across 2 chains.
  15. keysersoze123
    LOL. I am assuming that can beat Dunkirk in China 🤣
  16. keysersoze123
    F2 CIN update (T-10) CIN Prev - 36057/384470 2408 shows +2078 CIN OD - overall 4327 shows 59081/733342 post 6PM 1605 shows 30460/275364 +4435 CIN D2 - overall 4346 shows 72795/732246 post 6PM 1608 shows 9233/274849 +5391 CIN D3 - overall 4304 shows 38779/729394 post 6PM 1569 shows 2969/269572 +2902 Overall +14808 It has been amazingly consistent at Cinemark. Slightly Ahead on Previews and slightly behind on D2 compared to AMC(but that is mostly bcos of fan screening having much stronger %). I am slowly running OD and D3 of AMC and hopefully no errors and I have numbers by morning time.
  17. keysersoze123
    Nah. I am thinking Joker Monday ahead of last monday. Just tad under 50% drop from Sunday. Mal 2 dropping only aboug 38% from sunday and more than 2x last monday !!!. I expect Joker to take the daily lead starting tomorrow.
  18. keysersoze123
    F2 Previews AMC - 33948/309285 $514609 1530 shows. Not bad from % filled up. But again on par with CIN instead of CIN at 60% of AMC as usual. Only way I could run it as one at a time slowly. So it takes for ever. If this persists I cannot run daily for sure.
  19. keysersoze123
    FYI the last week was holiday inflated in many countries. Even Joker had harsher drop than usual(still great numbers). So Drop for Mal 2 has to be taken in context. Unlike Joker, Mal 2 is not recording breaking level(except Russia where gross is out of the world). So it would have lost screens as well.
  20. keysersoze123
    SW9 is day and date everywhere but Philipines(8th Jan). No overlap. I think Europe/Australia SW9 can and will win. Otherwise Frozen should win in most countries. SW9 should be also big in Japan but Frozen 2 will be bigger.
  21. keysersoze123
    Can you message me AMC theaters you track. i can send you saturday numbers for you to extrapolate. Edit: if its just the 2 theaters you posted above then saturday is at 1570/7107(41 shows).
  22. keysersoze123
    TLK did. Though one could say that had 25. years of anticipation built in and so played more broadly than a famly movie and that made its OW more frontloaded than a typical family movie.
  23. keysersoze123
    That is possible. Chains might do it for SW9 or Avengers but not for F2. Plus this is not a good time for Plexes to block huge number of shows for a movie considering how many releases happen over December. Jumanji 2 is releasing after 3 weeks and that will get a big release and then Disney's own SW9 opens. Otherwise I dont understand why its so low. But things could still change by next week. Let us wait and watch.
  24. keysersoze123
    at Sacremento the show count is not that different except TLK but at Empire 25/Lincoln/Metreon 16 the difference is HUMONGOUS. Empire 25 - 6 vs 40 Lincoln Sq - 3 vs 33 (though there could be 6PM Imax pulled out) Metreon no shows on thursday listed !!!! TLK at Imax, Dolby, 2d and 3D. As I said just 1529 reserved shows at AMC is incredibly low. friday/saturday are good but at Mal 2 level for now. For example Joker had 6000+ shows by the time it released for saturday. SW9 already has 5198 shows listed.
  25. keysersoze123
    At last I have some macro data from AMC for F2. F2 Day 2(since I thought this would be most important day from OW perspective). overall 3535 shows 64675/742277 post 6PM 1650 shows 15204/350817 Special Dolby Screening(103 shows) - 8738/19724 Overall - 73413/762001 Just above Cinemark Day 2. normally Cinemark is like 60% of AMC. Still big numbers considering there is 12.5 days to go for D2 shows.
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