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keysersoze123

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Everything posted by keysersoze123

  1. keysersoze123
    I doubt F2 tickets sales will start before Monday. So < 3 weeks of ticket sales. Will it explode off the blocks like Joker did starting so late. at Empire 25 Joker sold more than 1000 tickets in just day 1. I do not have overall AMC numbers as I started tracking it only from OD of Joker Run.
  2. keysersoze123
    Its overindexing at AMC for sure looking at Previews. Let us see how the day goes. For now AMC is at 48K tickets sold with almost 2/3 post 6PM while Cinemark is at 27K. Ratio is normal compared to how previews went. I think its playing better in NY region than in smaller towns. Let us see how the weekend goes. Anyway the project is bust as its more than just what the dom OW will be. As I said in the movie thread, it was ridiculous to give this 185m budget after last one failed to even gross 100m domestic !!!!
  3. keysersoze123
    I would rather JC make another original movie than any more sequels. My fear is he is so vested in Avatar that it will be something like SW for Lucas who never directed anything else. And I thought American Grafitti was terrific. So I hope JC does not stop his career on just Avatar sequels.
  4. keysersoze123
    I am not sure what was the logic behind giving 185m budget when the last one failed to gross 100m !!!!! Take Trek trilogy. All fairly well reviewed and entertaining. but they failed to break into OS audience and now its better off making Streaming series than movies. May be Terminator will end up there as well. JC once he gets the rights will sell it to the highest streaming bidder.
  5. keysersoze123
    Obviously he is saying BO is going "UP" today. But not sure how to decipher precise number. Not a huge fan of these antics.
  6. keysersoze123
    That is not a direct sequel. You could say SW8. But Star Wars movies are unique beast which did not penetrate Chinese audience. Initial expectation for SW7 was higher(I remember Firedeep thinking 1B will happen). But action movies generally do well and so I am surprised by this. Hopefully this is the last one. I dont think this franchise can be revived any more.
  7. keysersoze123
    Domestically its doing ok. Probably not enough for the budget but a finish ahead of Genesis is likely and may be if WOM is good could go after Salvation domestic as well. OS run is not good, China has been shocking to say the least. I have been following china BO for a long time and I cant think of any sequel that dropped so much !!!!.
  8. keysersoze123
    Ok. I think its time to pull the plug on this one. Easily the most shockingly bad china run for a movie in my memory if it finishes so much below genesis. what was the last movie to drop so much from the predecessor.
  9. keysersoze123
    I am just projecting based on PS for OD. its really strong. Looks like finish with higher ticket sales than Mal 2 OD. That did 10m minus previews. This will have fewer kids tickets as well. Plus it targets older audience which tend to be backloaded over the weekend. Reviews being better than Genesis also helps. I am personally not vested in the movie(they should have stopped making these after T2). But from a raw number its not getting outright rejected. if you are not usually a debbie downer my apologies. I was refering to couple of others who come in and only contribution to this thread is pull down movies. I would rather have this thread analyze tracking data and leave the financials and BO success to the movie or daily/weekend BO thread. This movie is not going to making money theatrically(mostly will lose even after streaming). Still our goal here is to predict previews/OD/OW based on the tracking data seen.
  10. keysersoze123
    I agree. I am seeing something like that as well. Would be closer to 3m than what I thought was possible yesterday. I had pencilled on 45-50K finish this afternoon and its finishing 70K+ between both the chains. I would predict 2.8-3m previews at this point.
  11. keysersoze123
    Si. Both the movies are up in low teens at AMC. But Mal 2 lost Imax/PLF in the evening. So that could slightly depress the bump. But good day for both of them. Edit: Gross wise Mal 2 is looking at 7% increase. So I would say way lower than how its looking for Joker.
  12. keysersoze123
    For some reason I thought weekend finished at 551m. But it was actually 851m WW. Yes this is not great. Anyway it does not matter. This movies has made bank already.
  13. keysersoze123
    Let burst for Terminator is really good. Really bodes well for solid walk ins this weekend. I would ignore the bunch of usual suspects who come to this thread only as Debbie Downers ready to pile in on some movie. As I said its PS was meh until couple of days ago. It sold more tickets today than rest of its PS run and PS for tomorrow is already well ahead of today's finish. I will post final numbers in couple of hours but at this point I would not rule out 40m weekend based on the data I see.
  14. keysersoze123
    I on the other hand think 40m is possible. PS for tomorrow is rock solid. Definitely hitting low teens friday and with better walk ins I can see this hit 40m. but 35m is a good conservative prediction at this point. PS for 2 chains crossed 650K for previews, So 2m+ previews is happening. How much higher it can go I will update at night. If Final number goes to 850K then you are looking at 2.3-2.5m range.
  15. keysersoze123
    super. Strong weekdays in several markets. As I said to @RJ 95 this will beat expectations for sure.
  16. keysersoze123
    Terminator Dark Fate (Mid day thursday Update) AMC Prev - 24647/202414 $402686 +5340 Cin Prev - 9976/200627 $128276 + 2406 Its ramping up. I am thinking it should hit 45-50K finish. That should be enough for > 2m previews.
  17. keysersoze123
    Thursday/Friday are holidays(friday not for everyone). Schools are generally off entire week. So 28th and 29th are holidays.
  18. keysersoze123
    It should beat Cap Marvel in Brazil. That had a very impressive run much bigger than any other Solo MCU movies.
  19. keysersoze123
    China is one market where we will know the OD before release with real time tickets sales data available. I dont know how that handle is predicting this far ahead. Have they done thie before and are they accurate. @Olive @Gavin Feng
  20. keysersoze123
    Empire 25 has 1st set of shows listed for F2. 2 imax, 2 dolby and 2 digital shows are listed. No 3d and no prime. I dont have comparison with TS4 as I did not track theaters but TLK had lot more shows from the beginning. But we still have time. I think PS should go live either this evening or tomorow at worst. Still nothing at Metreon 16(2nd largest Imax Screen after Lincoln Square) at SF.
  21. keysersoze123
    on SW previews/OD sold about 1400+ tickets at AMC while at Cinemark I saw 2516 tickets sold today !!!! Also for LOLs I ran the 1046 shows for F2 like I did for SW9 before PS started. After all inside sales and sales at box office can happen. SW9 was at 18424/723615 before the PS start !!!! F2 is at 435/217658(data for 1027 shows). So if SW9 Previews would be say 50m that would mean F2 previews would be YUGE 1.18m Now if F2 previews end up say 20m as some are predicting what would be extrapolated SW9 previews. On a serious note these numbers are irrelevant.
  22. keysersoze123
    Joker is down 14% from Monday while Mal 2 is down 11-12%. This is just one chain.
  23. keysersoze123
    I am not talking today. You have data when the PS starts. I dont agree with Endgame comparisons. That had 11 years and 20 odd movies of build up. This is a sequel to a big WOM blockbuster. So movies like I2 or TS4 will be good comparison. TLK should be good as well as both were family movies thought that had more than a generation of audience build up vs 7 years for Frozen. We will see how Endgame for girls work out. Generally women driven movies tend to have strong PS. But Family movies have limited PS though I2 and TS4 did very well. TLK was uber strong but it played more than family movie.
  24. keysersoze123
    I scraped across AMC and found 1046 shows. That is 1/5th of current SW9 PS count and 1/3rd of final Joker count(95% were there from day 1 from anecdotal checks). But I agree Joker started PS so late that it started with almost final show count. I will wait for PS to start before passing judgement. I dont have any data for TS4(it was good old days of Pulse data). But I have month of tracking 2 chains and I did do Previews for TLK at Empire 25(and Spider-man Midnights and few other movies after that like Once Upon, H&S, IT2). TLK should be very good movie to compare with. That started around similar time as well.
  25. keysersoze123
    I am curious why you think so. That had 13-14 years of anticipation and was superhero based animation. This is female driven movie with a talking snowman. Not sure it will play as much 4 quad like I2. I could be wrong. Its PS has not even started and so I will compare this to TLK when it starts. That had higher previews than I2 and so would be good comparison. @captainwondyful I am sure has more data to compare. At least shows have started to appear at plexes but so far its limited(1/5th of current SW preview show count and 1/3rd of Joker final show count) . Nothing screams uber previews. But I will wait for PS to start before providing better perspective. I have a month of data across 2 chains and I do have TLK previews data for Empire 25.
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