The Panda

I really liked Hacksaw, but I don't want (or think) Gibson will get nominated.

Wait, so Into the Woods was PG but this is PG-13? huh?

I'm divided. Zootopia, Kubo and Moana all deserve to win, and had it been a weaker year so would Finding Dory. (Haven't seen Your Name or Red Turtle yet) This year has been better for animation than 2010. Actually, it's possibly the best year ever for animation.

I was discussing in the silence thread the weird success of films like The Revenant, and how they stick out among other successes in the years. So how much untapped demand do you think there is for more serious adult dramas, versus the conveyer belt of PG-13 franchise tentpoles? Or are these just outliers and can't be relied upon for a studio's success? Do you think there potential for even more adult drama success than the 1-2 a year we've been seeing? Examples of Recent Adult Drama/Sci-Fi Drama Success from 2013-2016 Sully - 125m Arrival - 80m+ The Martian - 230m The Revenant - 183m Straight Outta Compton - 161m American Sniper - 350m Interstellar - 188m Gone Girl - 168m Unbroken - 116m The Equalizer - 100m Lucy - 126m The Magnificent Seven - 97m Creed - 110m Fury - 85m The Imitation Game - 91m Bridge of Spies - 72m The Big Short - 70m Gravity - 274m American Hustle - 150m Lone Survivor - 125m Now You See Me - 117m The Wolf of Wall Street - 116m The Butler - 112m Captain Phillips - 107m Elysium - 93m 42 - 95m Oblivion - 89m Saving Mr Banks - 83m 2 Guns - 75m

I think there's a demand not being met for more serious movies like the Revenant and Arrival. Things like The Martian, Gone Girl, American Sniper, Unbroken and Gravity doing very well I think also push that narrative. We're oversaturated with tame action blockbusters and comedies, so when a strong serious drama comes that markets itself well to get butts in theaters, it thrives. The only problem, is these things are hard to produce off a factory belt like other tent poles. They don't tend to franchise well, and they need to be serious but not boring.

Except for me. (I predicted 200m for it in December, so I even overshot a little)

How about we end this argument with the fact that Moana trumps all other Disney princesses on the scale of independence and saving people.

These were great post-thanksgiving drops, idk what the fuss is about.

A Arrival Deadpool The Edge of Seventeen Eye in the Sky Finding Dory Hacksaw Ridge Hunt for the Wilderpeople Kubo and the Two Strings Moana Zootopia B The BFG 10 Cloverfield Lane Captain America: Civil War Doctor Strange Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Hail, Caesar! Into the Forest The Jungle Book The Little Prince Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising The Nice Guys Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Sausage Party The Shallows Sing Street Star Trek Beyond Talullah Warcraft C The Accountant Allied The Angry Birds Movie Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk Bolgen Central Intelligence The Conjuring 2 The Finest Hours Jason Bourne The Legend of Tarzan Miracles From Heaven Nerve Hardcore Henry Risen The Secret Life of Pets War Dogs X-Men: Apocalypse D Alice Through the Looking Glass The 5th Wave Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice Dirty Grandpa The Divergent Series: Allegiant God's Not Dead 2 Jane Got a Gun London Has Fallen My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 Suicide Squad Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Trolls F 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Bengazi The Choice The Darkness Independence Day: Resurgence Nine Lives Norm of the North Ratchet and Klank Planning on seeing before the year ends Moonlight Hell or High Water Manchester by the Sea La La Land Rogue One Sing Loving Fences 20th Century Women Passengers Assassin's Creed

Lol, Moana's Post-Thanksgiving drop is better than Frozen, Tangled and Toy Story 2. Try to at least look at/refer to one reference point before you post man, there's no reason to believe Moana's legs are bad based on this week.

He's only 19, but his mind is older.

I still think people are judging this too quickly based on poor marketing (marketing =\= quality). However, I could be wrong and it could be bad.

Updated predictions Best Picture Top 5 La La Land Silence Manchester by the Sea Moonlight Arrival Contending for 6 - 10 Fences Hidden Figures Hell or High Water Patriot's Day Hacksaw Ridge Possible Spoilers Jackie Loving Lion Passengers Director Damien Chazelle Denis Villeneuve Martin Scorsese Barry Jenkins Kenneth Lonergan Possible Spoilers Denzel Washington Peter Berg Actress Emma Stone, La La Land Natalie Portman, Jackie Amy Adams, Arrival Ruth Negga, Loving Isabelle Huppert, Elle Spoilers Annette Bening Taraj B Henson Jennifer Lawrence Actor Denzel Washington, Fences Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea Ryan Gosling, La La Land Andrew Garfield, Silence Mark Wahlberg, Patriot's Day Spoilers Joel Edgerton, Loving Supp Actress Viola Davis, Fences Naomie Harris, Moonlight Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea Janelle Monoe, Hidden Figures Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women Supp Actor Masherla Ali, Moonlight Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea Dev Patel, Lion Stephen Henderson, Fences Spoilers John Goodman or JK Simmons, Patriot's Day Michael Shannon Kyle Chandler Jovan Adepo Adapted Screenplay Silence Arrival Fences Hidden Figures Hacksaw Ridge Spoilers Love and Friendship Lion Original Screenplay Manchester by the Sea La La Land Moonlight Hell or High Water Patriot's Day Spoilers Jackie Loving Zootopia

To be fair, I also heard BOAN isn't that good. But at the same time, it is a little ironic. To be fair though, Parker's case seems worse than Gibson's (Not saying Gibson's isn't bad. I almost didn't see Hacksaw Ridge because it, despite thinking it looked really good. I didn't see Parker's because it wasn't playing near me and I didn't have enough interest to)

I think Lion is probably weaker than Loving or Hell or High Water.

I agree with the sentiment of this post. But you only mentioned one great film in it.

I think rules don't apply and the trolls one miss. Either something from Sing or another song from Moana gets in.

I would take that trend with a grain of salt though. What matters is they picked the mainstream film over the "artsier" options, which shows strength in Zootopia over the competition. Doesnt lock Zootopia for the award by any means, but it gives it credence that NYCC broke their tendencies again for it.

Denis Villeneuve for all three.

Thinking back again I'd give the edge to Zootopia, it's edgier and riskier than Moana. It's also relevant and innovative. However, Moana gave me serious Lion King level vibes, and that speaks a lot for it.

And that's before Rogue One came out too

ill take it

I'll take it. Ill take both I'll take it I bet 50 points to two people Moana has over a 3.2x multiplier (from the 5 day) I bet 50 points to two people Rogue One finishes over 450m DOM I bet 50 points to two people at least 4 December releases finish over 100m DOM

Given Beasts is having abnormally good legs for the franchise, I think a 58% drop is a good goal mark.

Tbh, the twist was lame. Unless you're a massive Potterbuff you have no reason to care that he was actually Grindewald (as he's only a name that's mentioned a few times in the movies and books really). I felt like Graves was compelling enough on his own and didn't need to be a Scooby Doo "Who is it really" kind of villain.