TLK

So I just got around to watching the show. The lead actors are great but I think overall the show was okay not spectacular. The build up was great in the first 4 episodes but then it just dragged for a while before ending with a whimper. I guess I am not a fan of TV shows because I feel that this would have been better off as a 120-130 minute long movie.

My prediction - Fincher won't get in but PTA will. Inherent Vice may be a December movie but I fully expect it to premiere at either Cannes or Venice (more likely) and it will build a steady buzz leading up to its December release.

I think Divergent will survive Captain now. Second weekend drop is the most important these days because of frontloading so it is on its way to $150 million. CA2 is a bigger threat for Divergent in the OS market as audiences go for known properties in most Intl. markets.

Very good Saturday jump for Noah. I don't want Aronofsky to make another $150 million movie but Noah ensures that he won't face any problems landing another good gig within the studio system.

One of David O Russell's movies (the one he was directing before The Fighter) is sitting on a shelf somewhere about 80% complete. It will never be completed nor released.

Sometimes movies just don't come together even if they have a good director, a worthy script and big name actors.

Is it possible that South Korea is getting a SnowPiercer effect and that it is an outlier even in Asia? SnowPiercer was massive in SK ($60 million) so that must have helped Chris Evans more than anything else.

Good numbers for Noah but it will have to generate its profit from the overseas markets. $42-45 million OW translates to around $110-120 million DOM gross which is decent but nothing spectacular. I am actually more impressed by Divergent's second weekend numbers. It isn't behaving like a YA movie and that may mean good things for the franchise in the future.

Nikki Finke ‏@NikkiFinke 4m Early Friday Box Office: #Noah Floats! [Par/NR - 3567] targeting $13.5M and $38+M wkd. $200+M intl? Cost $125K.

Guru tweeted mid-30s to high-30s for Noah based on very early trends but that was a couple of hours ago so it was extremely early.

Q&A: Richard Linklater Firms Summer Release, Talks 12 Years Making ‘Boyhood’ EXCLUSIVE: Boyhood, a time lapse narrative feature film that Richard Linklater shot over a 12 year period, has been set for a July 11 release through IFC Films, which has stepped up and committed to a theatrical platform roll out and awards campaign. The film played Sundance and Berlin, and its makers have positioned it for what they hope will be a long summer run as audiences watch actor Ellar Coltrane and his supporting cast actually grow up before their eyes, and adults Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette mature as his parents. At Sundance, there had been some question of whether a large distributor would take the film off the table, but it only seems right that IFC stepped up. After all, as IFC president Jonathan Sehring told me back then, he was the one who wrote an annual check to Linklater for over a decade, and when his bosses would ask him to explain the expenditure and when they would see a payoff, he’d shrug his shoulders. Sehring’s a producer on the film, and so is John Sloss, who made this deal. “We went to Sundance with the understanding we would talk to other distributors,” Sloss said. “You have to understand when they committed to fund this, IFC didn’t have a distribution arm. So they didn’t have distribution rights, even though they are a co-owner along with Rick and the filmmaking team. This is a very special movie and we wanted to make sure it has every opportunity for success. We’ve realized this film plays for a young audience and it will need word of mouth that comes from staying in theaters for a long time. IFC really stepped up.” Full Article + Q&A with Linklater -> http://www.deadline.com/2014/03/qa-richard-linklater-firms-summer-release-talks-12-years-making-boyhood/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

If Unbroken is a legitimate contender then Hedlund or another actor will have a shot at BSA nomination. Movies like this don't work without strong acting performances so I am counting on at least one nomination in this category.

LGF has done a very smart job by employing a.) International presales strategy that reduces their exposure to almost nothing, b.) by buying packaged titles with big name stars for domestic distribution and c.) by their genre strategy and targeting key demos like Hispanics and African-American audiences. This is why they have been able to compete with the big boys while so many other studios/distributors have bitten the dust.

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/box-office-divergent-wobbles-may-not-hit-60-million-plus-launch-1201142286/ One estimate predicted “Divergent” would take $22.5 million at 3,936 locations on Friday — including $4.9 million from late shows Thursday — and wind up in the $50 million to $53 million range by the end of the weekend. Friday forecasts also showed a substantial skid for Disney’s family-friendly “Muppets Most Wanted,” with tracking declining from $25 million to $20 million. Friday’s estimate for “Muppets” came in around $5.5 million.

^^^ Yeah, I think it will do between 55 and 60 with 23 million Friday.

Nikki Finke ‏@NikkiFinke 57s Early Box Office: #Divergent (LG-3936 runs) matinee trends look strong - $22M-23M today so likely solid $48M-$52M wkd.

Solid Thursday number.

Cate Blanchett's Carol also started shooting today. Harvey will distribute the movie so you can't rule her out even after her win last year.

^^^ I don't think some of these titles are real but the new Batman vs Superman movie should steal Batman and Robin's translated title.

They have some big names backing it but I will wait to hear any actual project announcements before getting excited. I will say though that they have the right idea with these $20-60 million movies as I am a big proponent of mid-budget movies. BTW, Jeff Robinov is getting back in the business with his production company as well and he looks set to make a deal with Sony Pictures. I am actually more excited about Robinov because he is the guy who greenlit movies like Gravity, Argo and others while at Warners.

Ultraviolet isn't going to work. Itunes and Amazon aren't without flaws of their own but Ultraviolet is DOA if they don't adapt.

No there isn't any direct relationship but most micro-budget movies go the limited release route which is very cheap as it relies on VOD revenues to generate any profits. There are some exceptions like Blumhouse horror movies that are typically produced for under 5 millions but are often released nationwide by big distributors like Paramount and Universal. In this case the P&A budget is in the typical $30 million+ range. Purge was made for $3 million but Universal reportedly spend over $30 million in P&A.

For a wide release minimum is usually $20-25 million. For big blockbusters it can obviously be a lot more.

Not many people outside of Breaking Bad's target markets know him but this is an action/car racing movie so it will find an audience in the international markets. Disney has spend a lot of money marketing this movie in North America so < 20 million OW is a disappointment regardless of how much it makes in China or Russia.

It appears that Weinsteins are also no longer on board. I hope they get their act together as this seems like a really cool movie.