Quigley

The most ridiculous record of the week: 'Maleficent' has surpassed 'Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides' in North America to become the second-highest-grossing non-Marvel live-action 3-D Disney film after 'Alice in Wonderland'. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?studio=buenavista.htm

It's 63% above Wreck-It Ralph in rubles, but WIR earned more in dollars. It's also on par with Tangled in rubles, although in dollars that movie made close to $9M. These exchange rates are so damn low...

All in all, reaching $900M WW will be tough I think.

I think he meant overseas

Reply to Noctis: Reply to Quigley: Reply to Quigley: I wasn't talking about its opening weekend gross or its total overseas gross. I was talking about how long it will remain as the biggest overseas gross among films not directed by James Cameron. It will (most likely) retain that record for 4 years, which pales in comparison to LOTR 3's 8-year period. The gross may be extraordinary but that is irrelevant to my argument. If you find it funny when someone says "8 is bigger than 4", at least keep it to yourself.

Do you really think Hobbit 3 won't surpass TF4? I think it will reach at least $1.1B and might even surpass LOTR 3. It is the final part of the trilogy, China continues to grow and the Hobbit 2 was actually well-received compared to the first (higher rating on Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic, Flixster and equal to Hobbit 1 on IMDb). Just look at the bumps that HP7: P2, LOTR 3 and Twilight 4: P2 had (all are final chapters).

Guardians managed to drop 61% from last Friday. Not disastrous. $100M though is out of the question.

Because... Guardians of the Galaxy?

It's quite bad for Guardians too. I mean at this point, $8M is the best-case scenario for the weekend. That's a 62% drop from last weekend.

Excluding James Cameron films, the previous record holder was Pirates 4 (whose record held for a bit more than a month). Before that it was The Lord of the Rings 3, whose record held for 8 years. Sorry, but HP7 - P2's streak is nothing extraordinary or even close to that.

GotG dropped an estimated 46% from last Thursday. A bit suprising since one would expect midnight showings for Lucy to cause a larger decrease for other films. We'll see when actuals come out.

Let's put it this way: It made $89M in China and $895M ONA. Even if all territories except China stayed flat and if China made $200M, Avengers 2 would still reach $1B. Of course, most territories will increase, so $1B is a given.

Wednesday drop from last week is 48%. Showtimes are dropping to 14.4%, compared to 31.8% last weekend. So its screen occupation will drop by 55%. A similar drop in weekend gross would mean around $9.6M (45% of $21.3M). So including Thursday earnings, it will have earned about $88M by Sunday.

TF4 also ranks 6th on the overseas all-time chart. Fun fact: there are more films in the $800Ms than in the $700Ms. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/?pagenum=1&sort=osgross&order=DESC&p=.htm

TF4 has now made $245.4M stateside and $841.9M elsewhere for a wolrdwide total of $1,087.3M http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2014&p=.htm It is the tenth highest-grossing film on the all-time worldwide chart, i.e. Batman is no more. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/ The Transformers franchise is currently the only one that has two instalments in the Top 10. (Needless to say though that many other franchises had achieved this in the past, Harry Potter and Pirates of the Caribbean being two of them). Arguably, the MCU has two films as well (Avengers and Iron Man 3) but lets wait until Avengers 2 comes out to announce that officially.

Drop from last Tuesday for GotG is estimated at 51% (13M vs 26.3M) - let's hope it doesn't get any lower. In my opinion, this is looking ok. With 50% drops (on average) from now on, it can still reach $100M. UPDATE: As a post lower down mentions, the Tuesday actual is 13.6M so the drop is 48% from last Tuesday.

Monday dropped about 45% from last Monday (15.4M vs 27.8M). Not good but not bad either. What really matters is Tuesday's % drop from last Tuesday, since Hercules is coming out.

It's now earned $732.6M Make that $735M after it ends its run in NA. $765M if it earns $30M more in China and $775M if it earns $10M in Italy. That's not really spitting distance.

I'd like to point out that between the Amazing Spider-Man ($758M) and Ice Age 4 ($877M), there is a stretch of 18 films that are all in 2D, with no 3D film in between. As much as I want GotG to be successful, I must admit that it would be cool (for BO nerds like me) if that stretch of 2D films remained intact. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

$22.3M!!! That is very impressive.

I think it will pass $400M today.

Its gonna drop less than 50% from last weekend, right? EDIT: What is the usual Friday-to-weekend multiple for a Hollywood film in it second weekend?

It can certainly reach ¥1 billion. Dunno about $10 million

That was just a joke/generalisation implying that it could benefit more from making live-action fairytale films than CBAs. I wasn't impressed at all by the question you decided to ask, though. I do wish I was.

Interesting fact: Live-action fairytales have been consistently out-grossing X-Men films (i.e. Fox should quit making superhero films) 2014 Maleficent (3D): $757M DoFP (3D): $746M 2013 Oz (3D): $493M The Wolverine (3D): $415M 2012/2011 SWATH (2D, post-Memorial Day 2012 release date): $397M First Class (2D, post-Memorial Day 2011 release date): $354M Should we thus assume that Alice in Wonderland 2 will beat X-Men Apocalypse? Well, in my mind at least, the likelihood has increased although we do need a glimpse of what the movies will look like before making any serious predictions.