DAJK

I think it looks really good, but I’m genuinely concerned about its breakout potential. It has stiff competition practically every week, and one of the things Shazam 2 has made me think about is whether Covid accelerated the “disappearing from cultural memory” of late-2010s media. I think it’ll do well, but not some insane sequel breakout. Thinking 60/200 right now, with around 450 worldwide.

Where it'll open to something like 2.6 million dollars.

Because nobody under 17 was ever going to see this anyways lol.

I am beyond excited for this.

Looks like a sillier The Accountant lol.

Yea… presales aren’t looking great at all here.

Everywhere I've looked, D&D had between a 25% and 18% drop from Saturday to Sunday in ATTENDANCE (wasn't able to calculate % PLF etc. this is purely based on attendance). Pretty good hold all things considered, but yea I don't see this increasing from estimates. The decrease could be very, very small however, which is a great sign.

Yea... definitely went too villainous last season

Disappointing drop for Wick but I think this has a lot to do with losing PLFs. Should stabilize next week and hold well throughout April. It’s basically a tradition of this forum to overreact to a single disappointing number.

D&D having great walkups tonight everywhere I look. I’ve already mentioned it’s over indexed a bit, but the location that did equivalent 4.3M (true thursday) previews just did 13.5M equivalent true friday. Similar % increases in 3 other markets, that put it at 12M, 13.2M, and 13.6M true Friday. Unless Canada is some weird anomaly, I’d say this can hit 40 with ease. It’s also a lot of fun. Really really enjoyed it.

Anecdotal but I was talking to my old roommate today from college who is the biggest D&D fan I've ever met, and he was saying he's looking forward to seeing the movie, but him and his friends weren't planning to go until next week. And it got me thinking. Maybe this "brand" films with established fanbases aren't necessarily front-loaded because of fan rush, but part of it has to do with avoiding spoilers (i.e. Marvel films recently). Sure, Harry Potter was frontloaded, but more so towards the end of the series when the core group of people who were already going to see the new installment was already established. For this movie, there's no "spoilers" anyone is trying to avoid. It isn't the eighth film in a film franchise that has had the same crowd going back to see each installment for 10 years. It's also very well-liked among audiences. Maybe these factors will counteract any sort of "fan rush" or front-loading, and this can play out like Uncharted did last year, and approach 150M domestic. Other than Mario, there isn't much in the way of competition for over a month.

Not sure if anyone else does this or it's just me, but every once in a while I like to check my profile on here and see how many I've received. Then I sit back in satisfaction like "oh good, that's how many times I've made people blow air out of their nose in mild amusement on the internet."

HUH? NO BRENDAN? You've got the guy who just won the Academy Award for Best Actor in your (supposedly) Oscar-competing movie, and you decide to cut his performance? Not sure if this was done for the sake of the runtime or what, but that is really disappointing.

Worldwide numbers will mean slightly less for the prospects of a sequel if it can break out domestic. I'd argue that anything nearing Uncharted's gross from last year would make Paramount bullish on a sequel (still don't know why Uncharted sequel isn't getting fast-tracked).

Holy crap at Are You There God tracking. I didn’t expect it to make a third of that. To be honest I’ll be surprised if tracking stays that high. Still expecting a single digits opening for that one unfortunately.

Was going to see this today but got vetoed. Shazam 2 tonight, D&D either tomorrow or Saturday fingers crossed.

I don't have as much access to data as someone like @charlie Jatinderand @keysersoze123 but I do have access to some Canadian numbers (so would have to do some extrapolating). I would guess around 2M, give or take .5 or so. I want to say it's on the higher end of that range, but that may just be Canada overindexing.

I don't want to get anyone's hopes up because I know that D&D is over-indexing in my region... but the fact that these numbers are (surprisingly) consistent across 8 different theaters in 6 different cities is encouraging. But the numbers I'm seeing aren't THAT far below stuff like Black Adam, and well ahead of stuff like Uncharted. If BC wasn't overindexing, I'd say 50M is a definite possibility. However, taking the overindex into account, I would simply say that this is just encouraging, and suggests that HIGH 30s or (dare I say it) 40 is still possible.

D&D looking like a local breakout at least (BC/west coast Canada). Sales are on par with John Wick 4 tonight pretty much across the board.

Alita had meh WOM outside the core fanbase. Edge of Tomorrow is a more apt comparison IMO.

Foreman giving me Father Stu vibes, Sisu gives me Hardcore Henry vibes, and if Are You There God can open on par with Edge of 17 that would be a win. Bleh weekend all-around.

Really hoping this is a good-sized hit (for the genre). Would show these streamers that theatrical releases for their headliner product can be a viable financial decision, which is only good news for us who love the theatrical experience. Hopefully Apple takes note and really does go all-in on theatrical distribution beyond just Killers of the Flower Moon. Hoping Napoleon and that Matthew Vaughan actioner get full-blown theatrical releases.

Hmmm… I might hop off the 40M train for D&D and settle for 35. Pre-sales nationwide don’t look strong enough to justify 40. Locally, that’s another story as it’s a beast here. But oh well, let’s hope it has legs and strong OS.

Had a dream this was like 75 minutes long, they cut out all the songs, it took place in a swimming pool instead of an ocean so Disney could “cut costs”. Melissa McCarthy had one line, and Flounder was just a voice inside Ariel’s head. Man, it was terrible.

Nun is going to drop HARD from the first. 25/60 total.