Legion Again

I assume top 2 or 3 for 2020 overall will be locals, but thinking BW, Mulan, F9, Venom2 for import top 4. Missing anything obvious?

Isn’t the English “bad press” actually Chinese good press though?

Lol, Jinxed it. We’ll get ‘em next time after TLOU2 crushes it 😎

Last weekend was pretty huge. -50% is a good conservative target for this one as things stabilize, but atm I think we can hit more like a low 40s drop 🤞

Didn’t realize that in addition to the 3 openers yesterday we had 3 more today. Other than Last Christmas they’re doing negligible business. 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $1,039,530 ($65,083,105) 161,206 (9,321,989) 1,409 45.13% 2 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $343,849 ($794,353) 48,965 (114,468) 920 14.92% 3 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $210,638 ($627,173) 34,560 (106,013) 702 9.14% 4 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $187,571 ($464,981) 28,505 (72,470) 624 8.14% 5 Last Christmas U.S. Dec 05, 2019 $184,917 ($192,509) 28,173 (29,176) 618 8.02% 6 Bring Me Home South Korea Nov 27, 2019 $80,334 ($3,865,551) 12,712 (581,254) 512 3.48% 7 BLACK MONEY South Korea Nov 13, 2019 $82,887 ($16,689,333) 12,564 (2,359,998) 453 3.59% 8 The Truth France Dec 05, 2019 $28,233 ($39,957) 5,926 (8,001) 109 1.22% 9 The Good Liar U.S. Dec 05, 2019 $25,873 ($59,967) 4,007 (8,627) 321 1.12% Still, Eggs of FvF 99%! KO 97% LC 91% Little Princess 91% The Truth 92% TGL 92% CGV PS of just 37k for Friday, weaker than I wanted to see. Hopefully walkups pop a bit, but for now I’m forecasting about 225k, +40% daily and -47% weekly. That does mean more of the KOBIS PS are in SS again, so eyeing a better drop for Saturday.

Yeah, today is going fine after yesterday rather meh. 20ish

I mean, maybe the PSm will be great 🤷‍♂️ But yeah, iirc Deadline’s 60 included an estimated 40 in China. So if the actual is like 32, then maybe missing 50 WW if the other markets come in a similar % below their projection. Or maybe the other markets will overperform Deadline’s 20 — I’m not paying that much attention to Jumanji PS around the world, and over/underperformance in China isn’t that strongly correlated with ROW.

Looks like PS may end at just 17 for Jumanji. Maybe 19 if the D-0 night is unusually good. If so might be just 28-33 without notable reception.

I think that was the reasonable expectation. Still could happen tbh, if falls are a bit worse than typical for an Uber blockbuster in Japan. But I think at least ¥18B looks pretty solid right now.

Damn, will we have to settle for a “non-phenomenal” ¥20B? Truly a sad outcome

What if I told you —

Yes, I too know exactly what the quality of the 2 hour movie will be from this 2 minute clip. It is the same skill I used to make billions in oil futures.

Man, classic scooby doo was so great. The animation style and overly kiddish orientation of the 21st century stuff was a real turn off though.

Yeah, starting to notice this in SK too. It’s interesting since most of the big movies that we tracked closely before stopped after the 2nd weekend. For this one I just want to build up like 50 days of stats to have for future huge+decently leggy movies.

15%-> 2.7M->49% drop is about what I’ve been expecting for Wednesday. 20% would seem harsh but not shocking so (52% daily drop).

So, maybe as a compromise I would say “normal for an MCU movie, which is crazy for a normal movie” 😛

It’s really not. Black Widow is a popular character in the hottest franchise on the planet right now and has a decade of character development and attracting fans. I think it’s pretty normal/expected numbers for an MCU film after the past two years we’ve had. Would only look crazy to somebody expecting this to be Ant-Man tier, and I’d say that’s what the real craziness would be.

They didn’t say anything to do with TROS??? Or about OWs. They said <200 DOM And 600 WW for Jumanji total.

Ohhhhh boy. Time to go down the rabbit hole.

I think it did well enough relative to expectations that we’ll get a 24 hour view announcement. Nothing crazy though, low 100s.

Following Instant Family or Wonder from the Thanksgiving 7-day week get it to right around 66M as well.

Also here’s an updated projection table based on where things will stand after a 170k Thursday: Cume week drops wkMulti final admits 9.33 3.35 55.0% 1.82 12.073 9.33 3.35 50.0% 2.00 12.682 9.33 3.35 47.5% 2.11 13.035 9.33 3.35 45.0% 2.22 13.427 9.33 3.35 42.5% 2.35 13.864 9.33 3.35 40.0% 2.50 14.357 9.33 3.35 37.5% 2.67 14.915 9.33 3.35 35.0% 2.86 15.554 So around 51% drops will get it into top 3, feels very safe to me. 44% or so to beat Avatar and 42% or so to beat Endgame. Both live, but not trivial. Will update again after Sat numbers using projected Sun cume.

This is a good explanation of why MCU movies get a lot of likes, but it doesn’t necessarily imply a weakened correlation between likes and $$ since this is also a reason that MCU movies get a lot of $$.

CM trailer 2 got to 870k likes, thinking BW trailer 2 passes 1M again, but it’ll be good to see.

I actually blame Infinity War and Endgame for it. Once you've hit like on your first trailer or two you’re more likely to keep up the habit.