Legion Again

I mean sure, this is by far the least PS driven Saturday we’ll have yet. Maybe a lot of people show up tomorrow who haven’t bought a ticket yet. Maybe a bit less than I’m expecting. If you prefer a range call it maybe 650-720k

Sub par first entries too. If you wanna get your movie saved by China in the 2020s you won’t be able to halfass it.

Walkups slightly beat that conservative estimate: 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $1,645,041 ($66,824,353) 235,497 (9,557,861) 1,522 50.71% 2 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $514,123 ($1,317,839) 66,934 (182,570) 934 15.84% 3 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $256,829 ($889,978) 38,843 (145,578) 694 7.91% 4 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $252,859 ($721,932) 35,634 (108,622) 668 7.79% 5 Last Christmas U.S. Dec 05, 2019 $217,647 ($413,729) 31,224 (60,883) 615 6.7% 6 BLACK MONEY South Korea Nov 13, 2019 $118,924 ($16,830,833) 17,165 (2,377,382) 465 3.66% 7 Bring Me Home South Korea Nov 27, 2019 $84,623 ($3,956,348) 12,707 (594,147) 530 2.6% And F2 is back over 50% rev share. Should climb higher on Sat. Assuming it settles around 237k, this is a 45% weekly drop (and one of the biggest 3rd Friday’s ever, let’s remember). Sat PS are 138k. Same old song and dance by this point, but that is HUGE. Going to call for 680k admits (-42% weekly). When I try to extrapolate from KOBIS PS patterns the Sun I get doesn’t make any sense, so I’ll just wait for tomorrow before saying anything about it.

Have been suspecting under 500 a bit now. (Since <250 DOM+China started looking plausible). Maybe developed markets will hold more from first though, let’s see how the other markets this weekend go. But 36*5.5 is almost a good DOM performance now and that’s 198 whereas I think China miss $50.

Following Frozen 1 for 9, 20, 13 would be neat

Looks like yes. Low 60s. Could hit lower end of my 28-33 range with a good sat bump.

Ant man 3 will shame us with just 850M

1) Eternals Black Widow Raya Jumanji WW84 Onward Mulan Soul Red Notice 10)Tenet

I mean, it’s much closer to 600M. And it was a kind of embarrassing blemish on the past 2 years. Other 5 movies averaged like 1.7B 🤣

At least it won’t underperform my yesterday expectations that badly +11M from 3:00 to 15:00 is weak sauce though. Will it even have the night strength to hit 3x PSm?

Thy don’t get 25% of the service fees that contribute to the nominal 600. Or, iirc, the pre-VAT gross? I seem to recall a discussion about how for a nominal 100M, it was something like 8% service fees, 8% VAT, and 25 of remaining 84 = 21% of top line went to studio.

-10% with nothing coming out seems kind of harsh. Hopefully overperforms MTC1

We’re in a bit of an unusual situation right now where Disney, the big OW driver, put a lot of huge OWs all in a year or two. So I think it’s quite possible (highly likely, even) that the next 2 years or so will see a subdued period for OWs as things “recharge.” But while there’s a bit of a periodical nature, it’s really a periodical modification of a long-term exponential trend. On a time scale of 5, 6, 7 years we should see big OW growth driven by new and renewed IP, like we did from 2012 to now, 2005 to 2012, 1998 to 2005, 91 to 98, 84 to 91, etc etc. If not, that’ll be a huge warning flag imo that something has changed in the “people physically traveling to a large screen to see a new movie” model.

I think the slowdown in ATP is caused in part by people increasingly taking advantage of cheap Tuesday tickets, which isn’t sustainable. But that’s a conversation for another day.

Oh, I totally missed the point Yeah, I can’t imagine what it be like seeing people go “this movie might miss 400M OW, how pathetic” when enough time has passed.

OWs have grown pretty steadily and reliably for decades. If that stops (or even reverses, as it seems like you’re hypothesizing) it will be a paradigm shift that’s a very, very, very bad sign for the theater industry as a whole, because it’d probably indicate streaming fears actually materializing. But I think what you’ll actually find in the next half dozen years is 150M+ openings becoming increasingly common, and less impressive, and 200M+ openings becoming increasingly common, and less impressive, and 250M+ openings becoming increasingly common... and, okay, still pretty damn fucking impressive.

Eh, I dunno man. Things change over time. Numbers that a half dozen years ago would be spectacular without any possible exception and independent of context become numbers that... aren’t necessarily. Now for TROS, I’d say that 190 is still pretty fine, not “hilarious.” But a $199M OW on April 26th this year would have been a legit cause for a What Went Wrong. That’s just a huge OW nowadays, not megahuge, imo.

They weren’t in the first two paragraphs, so they don’t deserve to exist. No but for real, what was deadline doing hiding them all the way down there? What a hassle.

The 19-35 range struck me as even more classic. That’d be like calling for 190-350 for some movie

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-little-women-spies-in-disguise-uncut-gems-1202801742/ Jumanji 30+ TROs 200+, some saying as low as 175 Uncut Gems 15M 5-day Spies in Disguise 23-30 5-day Little Women 19-35 5-day (lmfao)

Oh fo sho. I don’t really see how they imagine this going down though. It’s 3.6M away, and even if the PTA was flat this weekend (will drop) it would turn in less than 1M. Maybe just want to get it within striking distance for a second push in holiday season proper, but will they really get much business for a Halloween vibe movie with Frozen, Jumanji, and Spies in Disguise in the Christmas corridor? They should have done a first push earlier and a second now to seal the deal.

Agree with @misafeco and narniadis here. TROS weekend will be unavoidably impacted, but holiday timing could keep keep TROS week pretty flat.

13M has a pretty good chance still imo. 14 not. In 46 hours we have Sat admits and Sun PS, everything will be more clear. Patience.

Lol, slowed back down and hit the 18 I was thinking at first. Not a good sign imo, but let’s see the Maoyan.

I am no expert on this topic, but I would guess that the more calls there are from non-China countries to boycott over HK stuff, the more “patriotic” it becomes to see it in the mainland.