Legion Again

Damn, will we have to settle for a “non-phenomenal” ¥20B? Truly a sad outcome

What if I told you —

Yes, I too know exactly what the quality of the 2 hour movie will be from this 2 minute clip. It is the same skill I used to make billions in oil futures.

Man, classic scooby doo was so great. The animation style and overly kiddish orientation of the 21st century stuff was a real turn off though.

Yeah, starting to notice this in SK too. It’s interesting since most of the big movies that we tracked closely before stopped after the 2nd weekend. For this one I just want to build up like 50 days of stats to have for future huge+decently leggy movies.

15%-> 2.7M->49% drop is about what I’ve been expecting for Wednesday. 20% would seem harsh but not shocking so (52% daily drop).

So, maybe as a compromise I would say “normal for an MCU movie, which is crazy for a normal movie” 😛

It’s really not. Black Widow is a popular character in the hottest franchise on the planet right now and has a decade of character development and attracting fans. I think it’s pretty normal/expected numbers for an MCU film after the past two years we’ve had. Would only look crazy to somebody expecting this to be Ant-Man tier, and I’d say that’s what the real craziness would be.

They didn’t say anything to do with TROS??? Or about OWs. They said <200 DOM And 600 WW for Jumanji total.

Ohhhhh boy. Time to go down the rabbit hole.

I think it did well enough relative to expectations that we’ll get a 24 hour view announcement. Nothing crazy though, low 100s.

Following Instant Family or Wonder from the Thanksgiving 7-day week get it to right around 66M as well.

Also here’s an updated projection table based on where things will stand after a 170k Thursday: Cume week drops wkMulti final admits 9.33 3.35 55.0% 1.82 12.073 9.33 3.35 50.0% 2.00 12.682 9.33 3.35 47.5% 2.11 13.035 9.33 3.35 45.0% 2.22 13.427 9.33 3.35 42.5% 2.35 13.864 9.33 3.35 40.0% 2.50 14.357 9.33 3.35 37.5% 2.67 14.915 9.33 3.35 35.0% 2.86 15.554 So around 51% drops will get it into top 3, feels very safe to me. 44% or so to beat Avatar and 42% or so to beat Endgame. Both live, but not trivial. Will update again after Sat numbers using projected Sun cume.

This is a good explanation of why MCU movies get a lot of likes, but it doesn’t necessarily imply a weakened correlation between likes and $$ since this is also a reason that MCU movies get a lot of $$.

CM trailer 2 got to 870k likes, thinking BW trailer 2 passes 1M again, but it’ll be good to see.

I actually blame Infinity War and Endgame for it. Once you've hit like on your first trailer or two you’re more likely to keep up the habit.

Domestically nope. Worldwide it’s unclear if TROS can match EG’s OW with its entire run.

600ish

Yes, though I overestimated CGV ratio for the openers it looks like. 1 Frozen 2 U.S. Nov 21, 2019 $1,138,135 ($63,922,420) 177,000 (9,160,435) 1,556 48.64% 2 FORD v FERRARI U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $356,565 ($441,097) 51,290 (64,306) 981 15.24% 3 KNIVES OUT U.S. Dec 04, 2019 $239,665 ($273,931) 38,900 (43,519) 590 10.24% 4 A Little Princess South Korea Dec 04, 2019 $211,779 ($411,766) 35,117 (70,731) 758 9.05% 5 Bring Me Home South Korea Nov 27, 2019 $121,693 ($3,776,284) 18,862 (568,170) 581 5.2% 6 BLACK MONEY South Korea Nov 13, 2019 $117,450 ($16,576,133) 17,739 (2,347,075) 495 5.02% CGV PS for today are 23k, so probably about 170. Basically a 40% drop for weekdays accounting for culture day. Currently thinking about 40% for the weekend too from KOBIS patterns, but I haven’t tracked a third weekend closely before so the ratios could end up much better or worse than that. Will have a much better idea in 24 hours and a very good idea in say, 40.

I’m thinking between 1B and AoU, but it’s tough to say so early. Could also hinge on the release date they can secure and what the Labor Day holiday looks like this year (duh).

F2 walkups better than I expected, headed for 175-180ish. FvF and KO headed for small ODs (maybe 60ish and 50ish?), but incredible starting egg of 99 and 98 respectively.

Oh, gotcha. Avatar The Last Airbender and it’s spinoff Avatar: Legend of Korea were Nickelodeon. Steven Universe is Cartoon Network.

I went to look up Creed 2 and got 37%... and 44% for WIR2. I think you were looking a week later. Starting to look to me like post-Thanksgiving Tues bumps are a bit depressed, maybe 45 KO and 62 F2 if I had to guess.

@Menor, @VenomXXR, @nick64, I think I smell a new potential BOT community list brewing... Probably shouldn’t be continued in this thread though. Edit: Planning to run this in the speakeasy starting in Feb and ending at end of March.

I bet it was available on Moviepass Tuesday but not Monday. 2018 Q3 and Q4 are kind of mucked up by that effect. 2017 — Coco +42% 2016 — Moana +36% Of course Tuesday we’re weaker generally back then, so I think 60-70ish should be pretty good.