Wednesday #'s (IM3 - 8.1M) (let the meltdown begin) 200M in 6 days!

[Biggestgeekever]

Now, what are the odds of Gatsby winning on Friday? If midnights are good, and this movie is as big as some folks are predicting, I could see it happening.

Pretty good, I think. It's getting really good sellouts for tonight, and it's bound to be pretty frontloaded.

 

Something like 22, 16, 13 for a $51m weekend?

Edited May 10, 2013 by Biggestgeekever

[Dementeleus]

Now, what are the odds of Gatsby winning on Friday? If midnights are good, and this movie is as big as some folks are predicting, I could see it happening.

 

I can totally see that happening, old sport.

[Chewy]

Yeah a Friday win for Gatsby seems doable

[Lumos]

IM3 should do around 18M Friday....Gatsby anywhere from 15-20M.  It will be close.

[Cedarpoint1111]

With a Friday jump that low, the Sat jump would be well over 50%, I think. We already have one instance of IM3 substantially over-performing on Saturday.

 

Yes but so did TA. That is my point, I followed TA's trajectory exactly and ended up with sub 61M weekend. 70M is very very unlikely since all signs point to it not having the WOM TA had and if it doesn't have that, than it will have a hard time beating TA's drops let alone matching them.

[Captain Craig]

Gatsby...$40m<

[Dementeleus]

Yes but so did TA. That is my point, I followed TA's trajectory exactly and ended up with sub 61M weekend. 70M is very very unlikely since all signs point to it not having the WOM TA had and if it doesn't have that, than it will have a hard time beating TA's drops let alone matching them.

 

But it's already performed better than TA on two days (in terms of drops, anyway): Saturday and Tuesday. Who's to say it won't hold better Thursday and have a better Saturday jump? It's already done exactly that sort of thing.

[Gopher]

Okay and so is this if it follows TA (which was more family friendly and better liked):

 

Thurs 7.4M (-9%)

Fri 17.4 (+135%)

Sat 25.56 (+45%)

Sun 17.9 (-30%)

 

60.86M

 

IM3: -73.8% drop Monday 

Avengers: -66.9% drop Monday 

 

Doesn't matter that IM3 WOM isn't as glowing as Avengers', it's not going to suddenly mirror its holds over the weekend when the run has to correct itself beforehand. 

[kitik]

 

Something like 22, 16, 13 for a $51m weekend?

 

 

It shouldn't need anywhere even near a 22 to win Friday though.

[Cedarpoint1111]

But it's already performed better than TA on two days (in terms of drops, anyway): Saturday and Tuesday. Who's to say it won't hold better Thursday and have a better Saturday jump? It's already done exactly that sort of thing.

 

Very true, except both of those better drops were only slightly better than TA's where as this weekend, some of you are predicting MUCH better drops instead of slightly better.

 

For example, TA increase 138% on Friday so you can say IM3 might increase 150%, not 170%.

[#ED]

All my chick friends seem very excited for Gatsby.

[Cedarpoint1111]

IM3: -73.8% drop Monday 

Avengers: -66.9% drop Monday 

 

Doesn't matter that IM3 WOM isn't as glowing as Avengers', it's not going to suddenly mirror its holds over the weekend when the run has to correct itself beforehand. 

 

Yeah I said worst case scenerio for a reason.....

 

And this would be best case:

 

 

The best case scenerio:

 

8.1M Wed

7.7M Thurs (-5%)

19.25 (+150%)

28.875 (+50%)

20.2 (-30%)

 

68.325M

 

I think it lands somewhere around 67M.

[kitik]

IM3: -73.8% drop Monday 

Avengers: -66.9% drop Monday 

 

Doesn't matter that IM3 WOM isn't as glowing as Avengers', it's not going to suddenly mirror its holds over the weekend when the run has to correct itself beforehand. 

 

The problem with comparing IM3 jumps to Avengers jumps is that Avengers had a $100M second weekend. There was pretty much no way it could have possibly jumped any more. Other smaller movies aren't in the same boat (namely every movie ever). So you can't expect IM3 to follow Avengers Friday and Saturday jumps. It'll do it's own thing.

[kitik]

All my chick friends seem very excited for Gatsby.

 

as if you have chick friends....

Edited May 10, 2013 by kitik

[Biggestgeekever]

It shouldn't need anywhere even near a 22 to win Friday though.

I think people are seriously underestimating how strong Iron Man 3's Friday increase will be. According to the LA Times, it's audience last weekend was 10% more families than the Avengers. With that in mid, I still think a little over $20m will happen.

Edited May 10, 2013 by Biggestgeekever

[Gopher]

Avengers Monday-Wednesday drop: -28.0% 

IM3 Monday-Wednesday drop: -28.0% 

 

This actually makes a lot of sense since Avengers had spillover from its record-breaking weekend on Monday and Tuesday, thus Iron Man 3 dropped harder Monday and inched up on Tuesday. By Wednesday, they're both normal. 

Edited May 10, 2013 by Gopher

[Sam]

Hopefully, Rth will grace us with his presence tonight to give early numbers, and not let us mortals hanging like yesterday 

[ecstasy]

Hopefully, Rth will grace us with his presence tonight to give early numbers, and not let us mortals hanging like yesterday 

 

LOL last summer season was so much better. People have become so divided and bitter. It's not so much fun box office watching this year as it has in the past.

[blackspider]

Avengers Monday-Wednesday drop: -28.0% 

IM3 Monday-Wednesday drop: -28.0% 

 

This actually makes a lot of sense since Avengers had spillover from its record-breaking weekend on Monday and Tuesday, thus Iron Man 3 dropped harder Monday and inched up on Tuesday. By Wednesday, they're both normal. 

 

Hmm, interesting. This can potentially bode well for a weekend rebound. Still seeing around 70-72m. All depends on that Friday increase. Other May openers have increases all over the board for their 2nd Friday so it's hard to pinpoint what film IM3 will most likely follow.

[Sam]

LOL last summer season was so much better. People have become so divided and bitter. It's not so much fun box office watching this year as it has in the past.

Why divided? TA vs. TDKR?