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Jandrew

Sunday/Wknd #'s, MU 23-24/82, WWZ 17-18/66, MoS 11.7-12.3/41.2, TITE 13, NYSM 7.8 BOM, RTH

By Jandrew, in Numbers and Data

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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

Posted
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Shoot after your balsy OW predict happening..and reviews are very good for the genre. I will have to start rooting for this to be profitable even without  a sequel... And yes indeed 150-220+ and 350-450M OS is very doable.

 

Brad pit may just have his first War of the World level BO franchise. :)...  I think studios want at least 550-600+m WW to be happy Baum. :).. Lord still strange to see a zombie film with producting and advertising total costs  of 250-300. You know some investors are like WTF!! (They spent how much on this!! LOL)

 

I think that the studios are just happy that they won't lose 100M+ on the film. If you asked almost anyone 5 months ago they would've said that this movie was doomed to flop in John Carter territory. Production nightmares, 7 weeks of reshoots, and reportedly less than 1 hour of usable scenes before reshots. It's a miracle that this has done anywhere near as well as it has. 

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Kalel009Shel Global Phenomenon

Kalel009Shel

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You blind? My MOS number has been around for the past 3 hours. Go look.

    [*]5:26pm I said 49.4/49.5 and said that the number would come +- 500K from 50 million. I also said 13.9 for today. 

    [*]7:48pm I said 56-57% drop.

And the victories you claimed? 

    [*]Transformers 2007

    [*]ID4 2008

    [*]ST 2009

    [*]Avatar 2009

    [*]Pirates 3 2007

    [*]FF6 2013

There's one or two each year. Anyone can do that. I could throw darts at a board to determine where I think each film would end up and get about that many big films a year right. 

 

And no. I'm not hating on MOS. If you bothered to look, I actually gave it a 7.5/10 which is midway between Good to Great on my scale. I apply logic, statistical modelling, historical trends, and current numbers when I make predictions, and then mix in a little bit of gut based adjustment. I do not let my personal feelings take over my predicting. For example, I loathe SLP not only because it is a glorified rom-com with a tacked on fake and cheesy hollywood ending, but also because the Lawrence stole the most deserving Oscar performance of a lifetime (since Isabelle Huppert in La Pianiste and before that Probably Isabelle Adjani and Meryl Streep in the 80s). It made the Academy give a 20 odd year old girl who has a lifetime ahead of her a statue while passing over an octogenarian who out-acted lawrence in a much more challenging role and in her only chance to get the Oscar. After missing the mark the second week it went wide, I was closest in BOA predicting its drop the next week even though I hate the movie's guts. I applied simple logic, statistical reasoning, and sound math skills and derive my numbers. 

You forget SM1, DD, Planet of the Apes, The Flop of The Disney starrer everyone that would make 700-800M. JOhn Carter.

Lol.... To each own. You give Superman only a 7.5??? And what do you give a weak reboot like TASM?

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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

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I thought anything we get from HSX is notfabio.

 

It used to be. But then BKB's tracking committee emerged a few months ago. They've been the most detailed and most on the mark with their information. Most likely AMC. 

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Noctis Global Phenomenon

Noctis

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You forget SM1, DD, Planet of the Apes, The Flop of The Disney starrer everyone that would make 700-800M. JOhn Carter.

Lol.... To each own. You give Superman only a 7.5??? And what do you give a weak reboot like TASM?

 

I recall you predicting $150m total for SM1 back in 2002. I'm sure of it. 

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

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It used to be. But then BKB's tracking committee emerged a few months ago. They've been the most detailed and most on the mark with their information. Most likely AMC. 

 

 

Nah, whitewalls posts all the btc theater stuff on that board.

 

I'm out of it for a while and everyone gets delusions of grandeur.

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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

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You forget SM1, DD, Planet of the Apes, The Flop of The Disney starrer everyone that would make 700-800M. JOhn Carter.

Lol.... To each own. You give Superman only a 7.5??? And what do you give a weak reboot like TASM?

 

SM1 was like 12 years ago......  :blink:  :wacko:  :unsure:  (And I'm fairly sure everyone knew JC was gonna flop. I definitely predicted a flop the moment I heard how much they spent on it.) 

 

And 7.5 is very good for Superman. I utilise the full extent of the 10 point scale and assign 5/10 as average. 7.5 is actually significantly above average, rather than the letter grade C+/B- that most people's 7.5s would translate to which is marginally above average. 

 

I didn't like it and I didn't hate TASM. I gave it 5.5/10 Average leaning good. 

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Kalel009Shel Global Phenomenon

Kalel009Shel

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I think that the studios are just happy that they won't lose 100M+ on the film. If you asked almost anyone 5 months ago they would've said that this movie was doomed to flop in John Carter territory. Production nightmares, 7 weeks of reshoots, and reportedly less than 1 hour of usable scenes before reshots. It's a miracle that this has done anywhere near as well as it has. 

Alot of people actually in forums were giving me hell that Im an idiot for thinking J. Carter would flop...LOL...Shoot it went well below even my lowballed predicts lolz.  And indeed it looks strong domestically if its leggy.. OS is going to be interesting to watch Ric. I think this may end up profitable and Baumer pulled another one out of his balsy predictor hat. I really thought this was a flop bigtime as well. :-o!! Awesome for Brad so far. :)

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Noctis Global Phenomenon

Noctis

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Alot of people actually in forums were giving me hell that Im an idiot for thinking J. Carter would flop...LOL...Shoot it went well below even my lowballed predicts lolz.  And indeed it looks strong domestically if its leggy.. OS is going to be interesting to watch Ric. I think this may end up profitable and Baumer pulled another one out of his balsy predictor hat. I really thought this was a flop bigtime as well. :-o!! Awesome for Brad so far. :)

 

They weren't giving you hell because they thought you were an idiot for thinking John Carter would flop. They were giving you hell just because.

Edited by baumer
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