JohnnyGossamer Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 It's looking like a 12.9m weekend: 3.9m Friday 4.8m Saturday 4.2m Sunday Based on how films performed the last time the 4th fell on a Thursday, I'd the more likely numbers for Supes 6 are as follows... $3.9M $4.2M $3.2M $11.3M http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2002&wknd=27&p=.htm A few of the other films did increase around 10% but then all managed to drop 25%+ the following day. So anywhere between $11M and $12M seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 I'm going bullish on GU2, perhaps unwisely, but the marketplace is full of comedies right now. I just see less people caring this time than last: DM2: 46m (-45%) PR: 38m GU2: 35mPR: 44 mGU2: 39 mbut GU2 will have better legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 WHITE HOUSE DOWN: $4.60M Friday (est) / $41.58M Domestic Total / 3,222 Locations / $1,428 Location Avg. https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/353535508569268225 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Is 3x + multiplier a norm on a weekend like this?No but that's what weekdays are for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted July 6, 2013 Founder / Operator Share Posted July 6, 2013 (edited) I'm going bullish on GU2, perhaps unwisely, but the marketplace is full of comedies right now. I just see less people caring this time than last: DM2: 46m (-45%) PR: 38m GU2: 35m Wouldn't that be bearish? That said, you could be right. I've only recently come around to thinking GU2 will open around $50+ million. For a long time, I barely had it cracking $35-40m/100-110m domestic. Edited July 6, 2013 by ShawnMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 She was in the trailer. Has two scenes in the film.I don't think that will count against her.She wasn't expected to carry Hangover 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 I'm going bullish on GU2, perhaps unwisely, but the marketplace is full of comedies right now. I just see less people caring this time than last: DM2: 46m (-45%) PR: 38m GU2: 35m Difference is there haven't been that many comedies that have done well. The Heat is the only legitimate hit but that's also a quasi-actioner. Grown-Ups 2 is a straight-up comedy pure and simple. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainJackSparrow Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 PR 55 milGU2 51 milDm2 48 milFor next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Wouldn't that be bearish? That said, you could be right. I've only recently come around to thinking GU2 will open around $50+ million. For a long time, I barely had it cracking $35-40m/100-110m domestic. I noticed that too. I was thinking "shit, I've been using bullish and bearish wrong for months now." But anyway, I've always been on the GU2 bandwagon- the trailers always get great reactions, the first one was very well liked and did great on HV, and it's by far the most family oriented of any comedy this summer. It's PR that I'm starting to come around on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Difference is there haven't been that many comedies that have done well. The Heat is the only legitimate hit but that's also a quasi-actioner. Grown-Ups 2 is a straight-up comedy pure and simple.Isn't Grown Ups 1 a break out hit?Sequels to break outs usually open big. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Difference is there haven't been that many comedies that have done well. The Heat is the only legitimate hit but that's also a quasi-actioner. Grown-Ups 2 is a straight-up comedy pure and simple. The Heat is a pure and simple comedy (there's barely a story in the movie, it's almost entirely jokes and setpieces), and I think Melissa McCarthy appeals to the same masses as Sandler does. I think Grown Ups 2 does well, but I don't think it's a movie the market is demanding right now. I don't think it needs to do better than the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 SATURDAY 8 AM, 11TH UPDATE: As predicted there were fireworks at the Fourth Of July weekend box office. More bad news for Disney’s #2 too-expensive The Lone Ranger (3,904 theaters) which opened disastrously Wednesday, remained weak on Thursday, and did only $10.6M Friday. It will be a very disappointing 5-day holiday with only $47M max. The Johnny Depp-Armie Hammer starring Western’s domestic cume is way below Disney’s initial lowball projection of $65M. Twentieth Century Fox’s #3 female buddy comedy The Heat could even outgross it for the 3-day weekend. Far different result for the #1 movie, Illumination Entertainment’s and Universal’s Despicable Me 2 (3,957 theaters) which had yet another huge day for $30.2M which should bring its 5-day holiday to near $140M. (“We stood here watching Rentrak and wondering, ‘Could it be?’ It’s not leveling off right now. It’s really great!’” a Uni exec tells me.) Overseas, the 3D toon has grossed $94.4M through Friday in 45 international territories. The film opened #1 in 35 of the 38 new markets where it was released. The new worldwide cumulative through Friday is $184.2M worldwide and will easily pass $200M today on its way to a projected $300M through Sunday. Kevin Hart’s concert pic Let Me Explain (876 theaters) from Lionsgate’s Summit Entertainment made $3.7M Friday and a projected $16.5M for the 5-day holiday. Here are Friday estimates with percentage changes from Thursday: 1. Despicable Me 2 (Universal) NEW [Runs 3,957] Wednesday $35.0M, Thursday $24.5M, Friday $30.5M (+24%) 2. The Lone Ranger (Disney) NEW [Runs 3,904] Wednesday $9.6M, Thursday $9.8M, Friday $10.6M (+7%) 3. The Heat (Fox) Week 1 [Runs 3,181] Wednesday $5.2M, Thursday $6.3M, Friday $8.6M (+36%) 4. Monsters University (Pixar/Disney) Week 2 [Runs 4,004] Wednesday $5.4M, Thursday $5.2M, Friday $7.1M (+37%) 5. World War Z (Paramount) Week 2 [Runs 3,607] Wednesday $3.9M, Thursday $4.3M, Friday $6.3M (+47%) 6. White House Down (Columbia/Sony) Week 1 [Runs 3,222) Wednesday $2.6M, Thursday $3.5M, Friday $4.5M (+30%) 7. Man Of Steel (Legendary/Warner Bros) Week [Runs 2,965] Wednesday $2.3M, Thursday $3.0M, Friday $3.9M (+29%) 8. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain (Summit/Lionsgate) NEW [Runs 876] Wednesday $4.7M, Thursday $2.5M, Friday $3.7M (+45%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 PR 55M?I was thinking at least 40M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 (edited) Difference is there haven't been that many comedies that have done well. The Heat is the only legitimate hit but that's also a quasi-actioner. Grown-Ups 2 is a straight-up comedy pure and simple. This Is The End, The Hangover Part III and The Heat are the only comedies we've had this summer. 3. Don't we usually get more? Edit: I know most wouldn't class The Hangover Part III as a comedy, because it had no laughs. (ouch). Edited July 6, 2013 by Krissykins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 This Is The End, The Hangover Part III and The Heat are the only comedies we've had this summer. 3. Don't we usually get more? The Internship (sadly) counts as one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Ah yes, The Internship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Every comedy this summer sans the Internship (which barely counts) has been an R rated raunch comedy. I think a breezy, PG-13 family comedy about summer can certainly find a place in this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 That increase for LR really stinks. Its opening 5-day will probably be less than 50m. I'm guessing it ends up around 100-110m total.. I feel pretty good about our bet, Cmasterclay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 (edited) dp Edited July 6, 2013 by FTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 The Internship (sadly) counts as one too.It could be argued that IM3, MU and DM2 count as comedies (in a good way too as I liked all 3). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
