Wednesday Numbers (Mojo)

[saywhatcuz]

Hopefully everything is undertracked by Nikki.

[Poseidon]

I don't like that number for "The Muppets" at all, as it may be much more frontloaded than last years "Rapunzel" and i'm really not that sure, that it'll behave like a typical family-movie.

[Jawa]

Too many films aiming for the same demographic. Not too surprising, honestly.

[narniadis]

Had hoped for at least 8 for muppets... we shall see what happens...

[druv10]

Small increase for BD1. Muppets with a decent start and rest have meh numbers.

[Cedarpoint1111]

I didn't even think she would post Wed numbers. Pretty expected all around. I wish Hugo was higher but I guess that's acceptable with the low theater count and big competition.

[Chrestomanci]

She's updated her estimates and now has a full top 10. For most of the movies that already had estimates, the new numbers are lower:BD1 - 12MMuppets - 7.2MHF2 - 2.9MAC - 2.7MJ&J - 1.8MImmortals - 1.7M (she has it listed above J&J because her 5-day "estimate" is higher for Immortals)PiB - 1.6MHugo - 1.6MTower Heist - 1.2MDescendants - 850K

Edited November 24, 2011 by Chrestomanci

[AniNate]

I wish Muppets did better, but that's still not a bad opening. It'll have its budget covered by Sunday.

[druv10]

She's updated her estimates and now has a full top 10. For most of the movies that already had estimates, the new numbers are lower: BD1 - 12M Muppets - 7.2M HF2 - 2.9M AC - 2.7M J&J - 1.8M Immortals - 1.7M (she has it listed above J&J because her 5-day "estimate" is higher for Immortals) PiB - 1.6M Hugo - 1.6M Tower Heist - 1.2M Descendants - 850K

BD1 number would be ridiculously bad.

[goldenstate5]

I'm still confused. It. is. Wednesday.A family film in November will not do that great on Wednesday. How is this hard to comprehend?

[AniNate]

^And that's why her estimate is low 40s instead of mid 30sHer estimated multiplier would be similar to what Tangled had.

Edited November 24, 2011 by tribefan695

[geekfreek]

If it is only $12M for BD1, that definitely isn't good but not wholly unexpected. The Twilight franchise is known for huge openings and poor legs. The rush-out factor since NM was released 2 years ago has only increased and we should be expecting steep drop offs. It'll probably rebound a little over the weekend, but then continue to fall at a slightly faster pace than NM did.

[goldenstate5]

^And that's why her estimate is low 40s instead of mid 30sHer estimated multiplier would be similar to what Tangled had.

I didn't mean Nikki, I meant everyone saying "oh that's disappointing for Muppets/it's no Tangled".

[Chrestomanci]

I'm still confused. It. is. Wednesday.

A family film in November will not do that great on Wednesday. How is this hard to comprehend?

I didn't mean Nikki, I meant everyone saying "oh that's disappointing for Muppets/it's no Tangled".

While I don't think it's especially disappointing, it's absolutely true that "it's no Tangled." Tangled made $11.9M on its opening day last year; that's more than 1.5x the current estimate for The Muppets. And you can't play the Wednesday card to negate that statement, because Tangled also opened on a Wednesday.

The fact is, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is a perfectly reasonable day to open a family film. Disney has had success with that opening pattern with Tangled, Enchanted, Toy Story, the live action 101 Dalmatians and even Flubber. (You can also effectively add A Bug's Life to that list: BOM has it expanding from 1 theater to a full wide release on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.) If Nikki's estimates hold, The Muppets seems unlikely to match the opening weekend of any of those films adjusted for inflation (and will certainly miss at least Tangled and probably Enchanted, the two most recent, even if you don't adjust for inflation). And there are even a couple of family movies that, despite having opened the previous weekend, did better (without adjusting for inflation) on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving than The Muppets is estimated to have done, namely the Jim Carrey version of How the Grinch Stole Christmas and the original Happy Feet.

All of which is not to say that The Muppets is doing poorly, just that there is certainly precedent for a family movie to do better on this particular November Wednesday (though perhaps never with so much competition for the family audience). So while I wouldn't personally consider $7.2M a disappointing opening day for this movie, I can understand why others might have hoped for better.

Edited November 24, 2011 by Chrestomanci

[lab276]

I'm personally disappointed by it. Hopefully it has legs to make up for it.

[fmpro]

WEDNESDAY 11 PM, 2ND UPDATE: My sources are giving me these estimates for today’s movie openings and for the 5-day Thanksgiving holiday. Already it’s looking like some of the new family fare won’t speed out of the theatrical gate, leaving a clear path for Summit Entertainment’s holdover Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 to win the weekend derby. Hollywood will have hissy fits if the North American box office slump keeps continuing. The good news is that audiences are giving reat CinemaScores to today’s opening pics: Disney’s rebooted The Muppets earned an ‘A’, and Sony Pictures’ Arthur Christmas an ‘A-’. But I’m going to wait until Friday night to draw any major conclusions. Meanwhile, The Weinstein Co is platforming its Oscar-buzzed My Week With Marilyn today in 123 theaters and adds another 121 locations on Friday. But it should do $150K today and around $2M for the 5-day holiday. The Weinstein Co’s other Academy Awards-touted film The Artist debuts in 4 locations tomorrow. Full analysis later:1. Twilight Saga’s Breaking Dawn Part 1 (Summit) Week 2 [4,066 Theaters]Wednesday $12.5M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $58M2. The Muppets (Disney) NEW [3,440 Theaters]Wednesday $7.3M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $50M3. Happy Feet Two 3D (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,606 Theaters]Wednesday $3M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $23M4. Arthur Christmas 3D (Sony Pictures) NEW [3,376 Theaters]Wednesday $2.8M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $22M5. Immortals 3D (Relativity) Week 3 [3,120 Theaters]Wednesday $2.2M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $15M6. Jack & Jill (Sony) Week 3 [3,438 Theaters]Wednesday $2.1M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $15M7. Puss In Boots 3D (DreamWorks Animation/Par) Week 5 [3,005 Theaters]Wednesday $2M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $15M8. Hugo 3D (Paramount) NEW [1,277 Theaters]Wednesday $1.6M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $11M9. Tower Heist (Universal) Week 4 [2,474 Theaters]Wednesday $1.4M, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $10M10. The Descendants (Fox Searchlight) Week 2 [390 Theaters]Wednesday $1MK, Estimated 5-Day Holiday $8M

[fmpro]

Everyone has around 7 in multiplier except BD...It has under 5

[Chrestomanci]

Interesting that her 5-day estimate for The Muppets went up $5M even though the Wednesday estimate only went up $0.1M. $50M is more than Enchanted was able to do for its 5-day, despite an opening day which was still over half a million higher than The Muppets estimated opening day.

[fmpro]

Interesting that her 5-day estimate for The Muppets went up $5M even though the Wednesday estimate only went up $0.1M. $50M is more than Enchanted was able to do for its 5-day, despite an opening day which was still over half a million higher than The Muppets estimated opening day.

Her multipliers has never been good

[goldenstate5]

While I don't think it's especially disappointing, it's absolutely true that "it's no Tangled." Tangled made $11.9M on its opening day last year; that's more than 1.5x the current estimate for The Muppets. And you can't play the Wednesday card to negate that statement, because Tangled also opened on a Wednesday.

The fact is, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is a perfectly reasonable day to open a family film. Disney has had success with that opening pattern with Tangled, Enchanted, Toy Story, the live action 101 Dalmatians and even Flubber. (You can also effectively add A Bug's Life to that list: BOM has it expanding from 1 theater to a full wide release on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.) If Nikki's estimates hold, The Muppets seems unlikely to match the opening weekend of any of those films adjusted for inflation (and will certainly miss at least Tangled and probably Enchanted, the two most recent, even if you don't adjust for inflation). And there are even a couple of family movies that, despite having opened the previous weekend, did better (without adjusting for inflation) on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving than The Muppets is estimated to have done, namely the Jim Carrey version of How the Grinch Stole Christmas and the original Happy Feet.

All of which is not to say that The Muppets is doing poorly, just that there is certainly precedent for a family movie to do better on this particular November Wednesday (though perhaps never with so much competition for the family audience). So while I wouldn't personally consider $7.2M a disappointing opening day for this movie, I can understand why others might have hoped for better.

Tangled, however, was a little more how-to-say... accessible than Muppets. For a film banking on nostalgia and supposed "lost relevance", 7.3 is pretty darn good, and the hopeful 45 to 50 million it'll make over the weekend is about on par of what many see as right on target or even exceeding expectations. It's exactly what I was hoping for.