Captain America: The Winter Soldier ( More than $700M WW, Huge Success!)

[druv10]

$300M OS is possible, but $450M?

IM has RDJ, an entertaining actor.

Chris is a likable guy but he is not

a showman like Downey. 

Plus IRON MAN flies, shoots particle

beam off his hands. CA is more

mortal. 

 

Evans doesn't have to be RDJ for this to hit 450M. First IM3 was able to retain 90-91% of audience from TA, all CA:TWS needs is retention of 56% of IM3 audience. Second, trailer showed the scale and scope of this movie is massive which will be eaten up by OS audiences especially Asia and Latin America. Third, overall Marvel name is much bigger OS compared to when CA1 opened. 450M is definitely doable as it won't face a lot of direct competition.  

[zackzack]

Evans doesn't have to be RDJ for this to hit 450M. First IM3 was able to retain 90-91% of audience from TA, all CA:TWS needs is retention of 56% of IM3 audience. Second, trailer showed the scale and scope of this movie is massive which will be eaten up by OS audiences especially Asia and Latin America. Third, overall Marvel name is much bigger OS compared to when CA1 opened. 450M is definitely doable as it won't face a lot of direct competition.  

 

You made a great point. How do you come up with 56% retention rate?

Along with GotG, CA2 is the most interesting Marvel movie to watch.

[Ent]

You made a great point. How do you come up with 56% retention rate?

Along with GotG, CA2 is the most interesting Marvel movie to watch.

IM3 made 805 M overseas.  CA has to retain 56% of IM3 audience to pull of $450M overseas.

[Olive]

Teaser has got 12m views on YouTube.About 60% of IM3 both after 2 days of releasing of teasers.

[druv10]

You made a great point. How do you come up with 56% retention rate?

Along with GotG, CA2 is the most interesting Marvel movie to watch.

 

Definitely agree with you regarding GOTG and CA2. If they both come up aces, I've no doubt Marvel will continue to bring newer properties to the forefront. BP, Inhumans, Captain Marvel and other B & C listers could be on there way. Future is so bright for Marvel. Disney paid 4B for Marvel and amazingly that looks like chump change now. 

[zackzack]

IM3 made 805 M overseas.  CA has to retain 56% of IM3 audience to pull of $450M overseas.

 

They are both different movies, even though they belong to MCU.

 

I always feel that TA is the true sequel to IM2 with IM3 is like a

more personal 2-hr epilogue to the whole Tony Stark arc.

Meaning, it is the Iron Man movies that drive AVENGERS to

insane height of $623M domestic. Captain, Thor & Hulk

are just going along for the "Tony Stark Ride".

 

THOR2 performance in a few weeks time will be telling if

there is such a thing as the TA Effect/Factor 

Edited October 27, 2013 by zackzack

[Sam]

Oh, the IM&Friends argument. That's very new and original.

[Olive]

Predictions:

Olive 310M

Wally 350M

keysersoze123 350m

firedeep 300m+

zackzack 270m

alisson23 390m  

Goffe 280

peludo 350m

Sam 280m  

dracula 300+m

JCS 300M

Cosmonaut 400

Leyla 300-350m  

Ent 400+m

LexJoker 300m  

druv10 450m

SentryTrans 400m  

Dexter of Suburbia 250m

[Goffe]

280m

[John Marston]

360m

[fmpro]

dont get why people dont wait until after the storm settles and we see how Thor TDW does..

Cap2 will clearly do less than Thor. Maybe 30-40 % less.

That will be my prediction

[keysersoze123]

I agree with CA2 doing around 60-70% of thor 2. I am thinking 400-450M of thor 2(lower than what I thought a week back) and so potential is somewhere around 300 or at best 350M.

[fmpro]

Could be around that. Lets see what happens in the next few weeks

[SentryTrans]

400m

 

The Avengers Effect can't be underestimated.

 

300m

 

The Avengers Effect can't be overestimated.

[Olive]

lol

[Fullbuster]

It's not overestimated at all...IM3 boomed over IM2, Thor 2 is well over Thor 1 in most of its current markets.

[SentryTrans]

Thor 2 is well over Thor 1 in most of its current markets.

 

lower than expected.

[Fullbuster]

lower than expected.

 

No, lower than YOU expected

Edited November 2, 2013 by Sonic

[SentryTrans]

No, lower than YOU expected

 

Much lower than the growth rate of IM3.

[druv10]

Much lower than the growth rate of IM3.

 

 

IM3 also had 3D boost and RDJ is crazy popular OS right now. Thor 2 is doing just fine OS and I think it finishes around 500M OS, nearly doubling Thor 1.