Weekend Estimates: Thor TDW 86.1M, Ender 10.25, Free Birds 11.2, Grav 8.4, BG 11.3, Last Vegas 11.1

[lab276]

What did he say before? Mid 70s?

28-30 mid 70s.

[ecstasy]

  @giteshpandya

Sources tell me #Thor heading to about $28-30M for today. Wknd may reach mid 70s.

11/8/13, 5:18 PM

 

Thanks Tele.

[druv10]

See this is why people need to stop taking early numbers so serious.

 

 

 

I agree and thats why I'm waiting for Rth.  

[ecstasy]

I agree and thats why I'm waiting for Rth.  

 

He's here watching.

[Rthmessiah]

Been side tracked I was going to go with for now 29-31.5, seeing how evening plays out seems quite strong, saw BG has it currently 30m

[Mojoguy]

Anything under 90M OW would be disappointing for me...

[Dementeleus]

I agree and thats why I'm waiting for Rth.  

 

What if the Dark Elves got him?

[spizzer]

 

Yeah he had 3 scenarios. Argh! Now I need to go look in the Thursday thread.

 

 

Here's what I posted earlier:

 

 

Following IM3's Preview to Weekend Ratio, its on pace for 79.2M.

 

Following IM3's Preview-Friday gross ratio (Previews = 22.7% of Friday total), its on pace for a 31.3M Friday (24.2M Friday without previews).

 

With a 24.2M Friday without previews, if it follows Thor's weekend (IM of 2.86 when previews are removed), it will hit 69.1M for the weekend.  Add back in the 7.1M from previews and we are at a weekend total of 76.2M.

 

 

Based on my data for Friday openers:

 

Midnight/Preview Percentage of Opening Day for Marvel Films

 

XMen - 2.7M (13.0%)

X2 - 4.1M (13.0%) 

X3 - 5.9M (13.1%)

XO: Wolverine - 5.0M (14.5%)

FC - 3.4M (15.8%)

TW - 4.0M (19.4%)

 

SM1 - 7.0M (17.8%)

SM3 - 16.7%

 

TIH - 3.2M (15.0%)

Thor - 3.8M (14.9%)

CA - 4.0M (15.6%)

 

IM1 - 5.3M (15.0%)

IM2 - 7.5M (14.6%)

IM3 - 15.6M (22.7%)

 

TA - 18.7M (23.1%)

 

The rule for Marvel films used to be that midnight gross equals ~15% (+/-) of total OD gross.  The introduction of 3D AND Thursday previews has driven that share upwards.  The new target area has become 20-25%.

 

So, let's look at both ends, following Thor's weekend adjusted IM (IM without preview/midnights) of 2.86

 

Previews = 20%

 

7.1M Previews

28.4M Friday (35.5M Total)

 

81.2M Fri - Sun

88.3M OW

 

 

Previews = 25%

 

7.1M Previews

21.3M Friday (28.4M Total)

 

60.9M Fri - Sun

68.0M OW

 

So a range of 68-88M.  Not very helpful, but it puts the median at right around 78M, in line with what I said earlier.  Looks like I'm losing some money on HSX this weekend.

 

 

Edited November 9, 2013 by spizzer

[Mojoguy]

Been side tracked I was going to go with for now 29-31.5, seeing how evening plays out seems quite strong, saw BG has it currently 30m

Ok

[iceroll]

See this is why people need to stop taking early numbers so serious.

Gitesh's 28-30 and Rth's 29-31.5 aren't too far off.  

[John Marston]

Been side tracked I was going to go with for now 29-31.5, seeing how evening plays out seems quite strong, saw BG has it currently 30m

 

 

the end has come

[AdamKendall]

So maybe 80-85 if Rth holds true.

[Fancyarcher]

Gitesh's 28-30 and Rth's 29-31.5 aren't too far off.  

 

Still higher.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Fancyarcher

[spizzer]

I do think that the IM could go higher than all sources are currently predicting due to the release period.  They are all bound to compare to other Marvel openers as I did, which would mean a 28-30M OD leading to high 70s, as I said.  But, considering its November, the IM could be higher, which would push it to mid 80s.

[Mojoguy]

So maybe 80-85 if Rth holds true.

You know what that means. Marvel will be giving RDJ more trucks of cash for more Iron Man sequels.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Mojoguy

[Olive]

Damn.

[lab276]

Been side tracked I was going to go with for now 29-31.5, seeing how evening plays out seems quite strong, saw BG has it currently 30m

How are others holding up?

[lab276]

I do think that the IM could go higher than all sources are currently predicting due to the release period.  They are all bound to compare to other Marvel openers as I did, which would mean a 28-30M OD leading to high 70s, as I said.  But, considering its November, the IM could be higher, which would push it to mid 80s.

Hope you're right.

[ecstasy]

 

 

 

 

Here's what I posted earlier:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aw thanks Spizzer. So looks like it will end up with the 2nd.

[The Futurist]

It will end up around 80, a bit more or a bit less.

I d say 82.