Weekend Estimates: Thor TDW 86.1M, Ender 10.25, Free Birds 11.2, Grav 8.4, BG 11.3, Last Vegas 11.1

[Jake Gittes]

Age of Ultron would need to be a SM3-like disappointment to peak at 450.

[filmnerdjamie]

Age of Ultron would need to be a SM3-like disappointment to peak at 450.

 

It has nowhere to go but down. Regardless of quality.

[Jake Gittes]

I think it has a very tiny chance to increase if it opens to 225+ and is as good as TA. I'd say 650 is the ceiling, while 500 is the floor.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Jake Gittes

[Shawn Robbins]

It has nowhere to go but down. Regardless of quality.

 

I generally agree, although I can't bring myself to say there's not a slight shred of possibility to hit $600-630m again. I kinda feel the same about Catching Fire right now.

 

But, Avatar 2 is the biggest candidate for a decline. Not knocking it, but it has the hardest standard to follow of any franchise right now. 

Edited November 9, 2013 by ShawnMR

[The Stingray]

Shawn, I didn't mean no offence with that Gestapo line. I was just exaggerating for effect.

[John Marston]

Avengers will decrease from the first but still make over 600m.  Like 610m

[filmnerdjamie]

I generally agree, although I can't bring myself to say there's not a slight shred of possibility to hit $600-630m again. I kinda feel the same about Catching Fire right now.

 

But, Avatar 2 is the biggest candidate for a decline. Not knocking it, but it has the hardest standard to follow of any franchise right now. 

 

I go back to The Empire Strikes Back and The Godfather Part II. Universal acclaim, "Better than the original!" proclamations (debatable on the latter) and massive business. But still a considerable decline. Just by the sheer hugeness of the first films and how large a role they played in the zeitgeist. Once you hit that, it can't be replicated.

 

It "helps" how they're waiting too long for the Avatar sequel.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

I am thinking Avengers 2 will make around 520m. 

[The Stingray]

I go back to The Empire Strikes Back and The Godfather Part II. Universal acclaim, "Better than the original!" proclamations (debatable on the latter) and massive business. But still a considerable decline. Just by the sheer hugeness of the first films and how large a role they played in the zeitgeist. Once you hit that, it can't be replicated.

 

It "helps" how they're waiting too long for the Avatar sequel.

 

I agree. History shows that you can only be a phenomenon once.

[AdamKendall]

I think Avengers 2 can make up to 530-550, but it's tough to match that epic high point.  TDKR was supposed to challenge TDK or more ... it was the talk all over the box office sites ... and (regardless of the shooting) fell from 533 in 2008 (nearly 600 million adjusted) to 450. 

 

You can only have '1' first full team event ...

Edited November 9, 2013 by Adam

[Jake Gittes]

I go back to The Empire Strikes Back and The Godfather Part II. Universal acclaim, "Better than the original!" proclamations (debatable on the latter) and massive business. But still a considerable decline. Just by the sheer hugeness of the first films and how large a role they played in the zeitgeist. Once you hit that, it can't be replicated.

 

It "helps" how they're waiting too long for the Avatar sequel.

Didn't a lot of critics dislike TESB in its original release? I'm sure audiences liked it because you don't make $200m in 1980 without that, but the acclaim wasn't universal. It certainly wasn't considered better than ANH.

[filmnerdjamie]

Spider-Man 2 is another more recent example.

[The Stingray]

But if anyone's going to rewrite the historical "rules", its James Cameron.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Smurfs 2 is the most recent example.

[AdamKendall]

Smurfs 2 is the most recent example.

[Shawn Robbins]

Shawn, I didn't mean no offence with that Gestapo line. I was just exaggerating for effect.

 

No worries. I only asked because I thought you were trying to change your name and the system wouldn't let you or something.

I agree. History shows that you can only be a phenomenon once.

Exactly. The lone exception being Star Wars (TPM).

[filmnerdjamie]

Smurfs 2 is the most recent example.

 

[Jack Nevada]

Omg I've waited for this gif since I saw Lincoln

[Jake Gittes]

Spider-Man 2 is another more recent example.

A much more positive example than TESB, Godfather or something else like JP2, though. I'm sure plenty of people, myself included, will be happy if TA2 "only" decreases 7.5% from TA.

[The Stingray]

Exactly. The lone exception being Star Wars (TPM).

 

Yeah, the rules don't apply if you wait 20 years.