Weekend Estimates: Thor TDW 86.1M, Ender 10.25, Free Birds 11.2, Grav 8.4, BG 11.3, Last Vegas 11.1

[Jessie]

I think Avengers 2 can make up to 530-550, but it's tough to match that epic high point.  TDKR was supposed to challenge TDK or more ... it was the talk all over the box office sites ... and (regardless of the shooting) fell from 533 in 2008 (nearly 600 million adjusted) to 450. You can only have '1' first full team event ...

That's a bad example. I could argue that TDKR could have hit 500m if not weren't for the shootings, also TDK whether people agree or not hit the heights it did because of Ledgers death. TDKR was always going to decline, people only over predicted because of Avengers doing so well. I don't think the trailers were as remarkable for TDKR as the ones will be for Avengers 2.

[Deathlife]

If Avengers 2 gets to $600M, then I will eat my hat. The Avengers was a phenomenon and without the novelty effect of seeing the characters together for the first time, there's no way it gets to $600M.It'll be like Empire Strikes Back to the original Star Wars. It will drop considerably but still be successful.Although based on the hyperbole (and outright trolling I see on these forums) Empire Strikes Back would have been called a flop if it opened today and dropped so far off from the original.

[Lordmandeep]

Thing working for Ta2 favour is a rather empty market...I think we all agree without the shooting Tdkr would have made around 90% of TdkCan't see why ta2 should drop 20%..After im3 just made 174 million you think ta2 will open like 180 million...Be sensible not pessimistic

Edited November 9, 2013 by Lordmandeep

[Shawn Robbins]

 

Spader instantly brightens my day without fail.

[Jack Nevada]

Spader instantly brightens my day without fail.

He stole the show right under everyone's nose in that movie.

[filmnerdjamie]

A much more positive example than TESB, Godfather or something else like JP2, though. I'm sure plenty of people, myself included, will be happy if TA2 "only" decreases 7.5% from TA.

 

Sure but that's not gonna happen. Anyone who even suggests there will be a drop is gonna get some serious shit slung at them. Once we get closer to the opening.

[AdamKendall]

That's a bad example. I could argue that TDKR could have hit 500m if not weren't for the shootings, also TDK whether people agree or not hit the heights it did because of Ledgers death. TDKR was always going to decline, people only over predicted because of Avengers doing so well. I don't think the trailers were as remarkable for TDKR as the ones will be for Avengers 2.

You can't call it a bad example ... and then proceed to discuss how remarkable the trailers will be for Avengers 2 as a reasoning for your thoughts.

 

Whether shootings or not, it was still going to drop in comparison to TDK.  I see a 15% drop or so for Avengers 2 ... not falling off a cliff.

Edited November 9, 2013 by Adam

[Shawn Robbins]

Thing working for Ta2 favour is a rather empty market...

 

It's not competition I'd even be worried about, just seeing how Whedon is going to follow himself. I envy him about as much as I envy the writers of Superman-Batman and Episode VII right now.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Thing working for Ta2 favour is a rather empty market...

It will still decline. People are noting going to watching 2-3 times. More films will move into May 2015. 

[Shawn Robbins]

He stole the show right under everyone's nose in that movie.

 

Seriously. With a few more minutes of screen time, an Oscar nod would have been his.

[filmnerdjamie]

The Avengers was a phenomenon and without the novelty effect of seeing the characters together for the first time, there's no way it gets to $600M.

 

A novelty that Batman Versus Superman now has, plus the Affleck casting.

[Lordmandeep]

Yeah but I doubt nothing major is coming like a 300 million film in may

[Lordmandeep]

A novelty that Batman Versus Superman now has, plus the Affleck casting.

Please it will open massive and fall off like mos.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Yeah but I doubt nothing major is coming like a 300 million film in may

Monster Trucks will crush the competition.

[filmnerdjamie]

ShawnMR is right on Avatar 2. Especially since the long wait is only going to allow people the time to rewrite their initial reactions. "Oh I didn't REALLY like it that much!" I remember hearing that after Pirates 4 under-performed from various folk when addressing their thoughts on Pirates 1 and 2.

[Lordmandeep]

Ta2 real big story is going to be overseas likely...

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Yeah but I doubt nothing major is coming like a 300 million film in may

Tomrrowland has chance at 200m-300m

add an adult film like Gatsby

add in a comedy 

 

those two films could do 120m 

[Jonwo]

Tomorrowland I cant see doing $300m, $150-200m at a push, it would have to have to have excellent legs and reviews for $300m. 

 

I think we'll likely have a comedy and maybe an adult film, Gatsby in 2013 and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel both did excellent business against Iron Man 3 and Avengers. I wouldn't be surprised if Mission Impossible 5 or if Sony push it up Inferno in May as well.

[Lordmandeep]

Do people think TA 2 will not out open TA? 

Edited November 9, 2013 by Lordmandeep

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Tomorrowland I cant see doing $300m, $150-200m at a push, it would have to have to have excellent legs and reviews for $300m. 

 

I think we'll likely have a comedy and maybe an adult film, Gatsby in 2013 and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel both did excellent business against Iron Man 3 and Avengers. I wouldn't be surprised if Mission Impossible 5 or if Sony push it up Inferno in May as well.

I could see May 2015 looking like this

May 1 Avengers

May 8 adult films

May 15 comedy

May 22 Tomorrowland

May 29 Monster Trucks 

Inferno