Impact Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 No clue where my post updates are, but here is my current: The Artist The Descendents The Help Hugo Midnight in Paris Moneyball War Horse If there were 5 I see it like this: Artist Descendents The Help Hugo War Horse With Moneyball getting the director nod, while The Help misses it. I wish I could quote mutliple posts without having to search for everyone in the multiquote, meaning you can quote the post as well that the other is quoting. Anyway, here are other films: Tree of Life-Very mixed, low box office, early release date might hinder it. (Though those last 2 did not stop Hurt Locker or Winter's Bone) HP8-None of the other 7 ever even came close to a nomination, so will the Academy really want to nominate it now? Tinker-Losing steam. Loud and Close-See above. My Week-Possible, but Weinstein seems to be doing The Artist instead. Tintin-Not happening. Unless if Nick does a serious campain. Rango-See above. Dragon Tattoo-Unlikely. Drive-Possible, but unlikely. Young Adult-Doubt it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm not so sure Impact about War Horse getting a nom. I mean it is very likely, but we shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Extermely Loud and Incredibly Close out of the race for Best Picture! 50% on Rotten Tomatoes after 8 reviews, but the most interesting fact is that even the good reviews seem to give it just like a B- /B. Extermely Loud and Incredibly Close out of the race for Best Picture! 50% on Rotten Tomatoes after 8 reviews, but the most interesting fact is that even the good reviews seem to give it just like a B- /B. Its chances didn't ever come from critics support. They're hoping to reach the mainstream heart the same way The Green Mile did. So until it opens wide, it's still possible. In fact, it's the same card roght now is playing War Horse. So-so reviews won't matter if it can connect with its audience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm not so sure Impact about War Horse getting a nom. I mean it is very likely, but we shall see. I'm not so sure Impact about War Horse getting a nom. I mean it is very likely, but we shall see. I'm also not sure about that. It's more probable The tree of Life gets in instead of War Horse. BTW, i'm pretty surprised how everyone is so sure we will have at most seven BP noms. Why? With this unclear campaign and many films still in the race, it seems very possible we can have 9/10 films nominated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenithtim Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Its chances didn't ever come from critics support. They're hoping to reach the mainstream heart the same way The Green Mile did. So until it opens wide, it's still possible. In fact, it's the same card roght now is playing War Horse. So-so reviews won't matter if it can connect with its audience. Yes, however, it's not like it's going to be nominated if it ends up rotten. The Green Mile had 80% on RT anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travod Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Do we know how difficult it is to get 5% of number ones? Can't 20 movies all get 5%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 In theory, yes. As can just 2 films. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travod Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 In theory, yes. As can just 2 films. So for someone to just say "I think seven max" when it seems quite easy to get 5%... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 Depends. As I said, it could be possible for more then 10, or possible to get less then 5. I am wondering though if something happened last year like Winter's Bone got 2% of number ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Is that % a fact? It's possible last year a few films nominated missed the 5% first votes. It was because many in the industry really loved two films: The Social Network and The King's Speech. Also, the auteur votes went totally to support Aranofski's Black Swan and Coen's True Grit. Inception also probably got many more than that 5%. The massive support for this films probably did hurt the first votes % of 127 hours / TKAAR / Winter's bone. So we could had only seven nominees. This year is very different. There are no big frontrunners (Social Network), not classic academy options (The King speech), not mainstream well loved films (Inception), not respected directors scoring amazing successes people don't stop talking about (True grit and Black Swan). 2011 is a very divisive year and we can easily get 9/10 noms. I can't see any film collecting more than 25% of the first votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I was just guessing, that it was possible that something like Winter's Bone might of had only 2% of number ones. So I was wondering what caused it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I see. It's certainly possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yep. Where as its also possible for 15 films to get 5% or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 My predictions 1. Midnight in Paris 2. The Artist 3. Tree of Life 4. The Help 5. Moneyball 6. Ides of March 7. The Descendants 8. Hugo 9. My Week with Marilyn 10. 50/50 Winner The Artist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 If MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and 50/50 get a BP nom, I'll eat my hat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 So for someone to just say "I think seven max" when it seems quite easy to get 5%... Yes, it is, but they won't have more than ten nominees or less than five. I guess in a case of such close ties they would do a recount of the votes and meticulously look over placement on ballots for tie-breakers. But, I'm sure it would work out in the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 If MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and 50/50 get a BP nom, I'll eat my hat. I want to see a hat in your mouth by the end of Oscar season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 I'm pretty sure Dragon is just trying to see if his love intrest can get nominated I kid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Its chances didn't ever come from critics support. They're hoping to reach the mainstream heart the same way The Green Mile did. So until it opens wide, it's still possible. In fact, it's the same card roght now is playing War Horse. So-so reviews won't matter if it can connect with its audience. The Reader got bad reviews and still was nominated for BP and BD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impact Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Okay, I put up the Oscar predict game, with some of my picks, but this cat is tough due to the new rules. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
