Wednesday #s (1/1) | FRZ 8.72,DOS 7.8,WOWS 5.671,AM2 4.874,SMB 4.178 (Official estimates)

[ecstasy]

@Hiccup: Deathly hallows part 1 and Breaking dawn part 1 both reduced < 10% over it's predecessor, why would HG:MJ part 1 reduce by 20%?

 

(something's wrong with windows 8 + ie...it's not letting me reply to someone, just lets me post something new. sorry for my seemingly context-less posts)

 

LOL I had that same problem after an update with w/7. Switched to Chrome.

[Shawn Robbins]

I don't think its unrealistic to consider a bigger % drop for MJ1--mainly because this franchise is performing at levels Potter and Twilight didn't. Historically speaking, CF should have dropped... and it didn't.

[ecstasy]

I was wondering what effects Frozen's performance will have on its loss of theaters this weekend? It is outperforming DOS but has 600 less theaters. Even Anchorman2 has more theaters. Will the theater owners take this into account and shave more theaters from A2 & DOS or is theater loss mostly already booked/commited?

 

 

It's only booked for 1st 2 weeks of a movies run, after that it depends on theaters especially in Frozen's case. It's going to make 20M+ in 6th weekend so theaters take a lot more in revenues later in a movies run than in the beginning so clearly theaters owners will prefer it over DOS or AM2 or any new openers. 

 

 

Druv is right.  We had 12 shows a day for Frozen's first 3-4 weeks.  On Christmas day, it was dropped to 5 shows, but moved to IDX for the first 3, which is the biggest theater we have.  So, yeah, the initial engagement was honored and since it was still doing better than almost everything else, we removed the first 2 shows of Hobbit 3D HFR and put in 3 shows of Frozen.

 

I'm sure most theaters were doing what they could to keep it playing as much as possible.

 

I see you got your answer.

[rustyspoons89]

Disney's 2003 release was Brother Bear, which had a fantastic OW/final multiplier, due to opening on a Saturday, of all days, but grossed far less than Finding Nemo.They had a 2004 release of Home on the Range, vastly disappointing, and Pixar had The Incredibles.Other matchups:Ratatouille vs Meet the Robinsons (2007)Wall-E vs Bolt (2008)Up vs The Princess and the Frog (2009)Toy Story 3 vs Tangled (2010)Cars 2 vs Winnie the Pooh (2011)Brave vs Wreck-It Ralph (2012)As far as RT numbers, both Winnie the Pooh and Wreck-It Ralph garnered a higher tomatoscore than either Cars 2 or Brave.

Thanks for being more thorough. I just quickly skimmed BOM.

[baumer]

Agreed... but Aurora took $10-20 million off its opening weekend and likely another 20-25 million for the rest of its run so $490-495 million would have likely been its gross since August had a fairly lackluster slate 

 

No it didn't.

[DAR]

I agree I didn't think Aurora generated that much money.Though is there any data out there that does break down how much a film does in a particular region or city?

[John Marston]

Shooting definitely hurt TDKR but it wouldn't have surpassed TDK no matter what

[CJohn]

No it didn't.

And nobody can prove anything.

[Empire]

The shooting hurt TDKR's box office somewhat. However, I still don't think it would have gotten to 500m. I think it would have topped out around 460-470.

[BadAtGender]

I agree I didn't think Aurora generated that much money.Though is there any data out there that does break down how much a film does in a particular region or city?

 

That's missing the point. It wasn't the loss of the Aurora theater specifically, but rather the general audience trend of avoiding movie theaters (and that movie specifically) for a while. A family hears about a shooting and, maybe, decides to do something else with their Saturday evening.

 

There's really no way of knowing what that effect truly was. We have a lot of comparisons to apply to other films, but there's never been another event like this. It's truly unprecedented. I truly hope that nothing ever like it happens again, so TDKR's box office run can go down in history as an unfortunate, tragically unique event.

[ecstasy]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-20-profitable-films-668279

 

Box Office: The 20 Most Profitable Films of 2013

[#ED]

Well Aurora did have an effect and no one can deny that. The only question is "how much".

[The Panda]

I'm reading through the old Avengers over 350m club and it's quite entertaining to see all the predictions, and the only person early on guessing accurate numbers was the extreme marvel fanboy dissing anything DC, WB, or TDKR.

[ecstasy]

I'm reading through the old Avengers over 350m club and it's quite entertaining to see all the predictions, and the only person early on guessing accurate numbers was the extreme marvel fanboy dissing anything DC, WB, or TDKR.

 

LOL Good times. Nobody knew where the Avengers was headed except for a couple of people. Props to that guy who made the OW record thread.

Edited January 3, 2014 by ECSTASY

[druv10]

I agree I didn't think Aurora generated that much money.Though is there any data out there that does break down how much a film does in a particular region or city?

 

Spizzer or I think it was him, posted data comparing how TDKR just died in the evening on OW compared to other uber openers so it is fair to say it lost 15-20M on OW but I still don't think it would have beaten TDK. 

[The Panda]

LOL Good times. Nobody knew where the Avengers was headed except for a couple of people. Props to that guy who made the OW record thread.

 

Ooh I saw a funny one,

 

"The Avengers is not the type of monster the Chinese like, it probably won't make the top 10 in China."

 

A lot of these quotes are entertaining, however I understand where they are coming from given their place in time.

[ecstasy]

Ooh I saw a funny one,

 

"The Avengers is not the type of monster the Chinese like, it probably won't make the top 10 in China."

 

A lot of these quotes are entertaining, however I understand where they are coming from given their place in time.

 

LOL I remember my own thoughts. I didn't think it would out open THG, lol. It had nowhere near the pre-sale sell outs that THG had so I just knew it would not beat that OW. Man that was a fun ride though watching that opening weekend with show after show selling out on walk ups. Somebody called it a full on 4 quadrant Nirvana.

[Hiccup]

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-20-profitable-films-668279

 

Box Office: The 20 Most Profitable Films of 2013

 

 

Thanks for finding and sharing this!

[Vitor Tavares Dos Santos]

@Hiccup: Deathly hallows part 1 and Breaking dawn part 1 both reduced < 10% over it's predecessor, why would HG:MJ part 1 reduce by 20%?

 

(something's wrong with windows 8 + ie...it's not letting me reply to someone, just lets me post something new. sorry for my seemingly context-less posts)

 

Half Blood Prince $301,959,197

 

Deathly Hallows Part 1  $295,983,305

 

 Eclipse $300,531,751

 

Breaking Dawn Part 1  $281,287,133

 

Considering THG isn't performing like twilight and better than harry Potter I don't see how  MJ1 could not hit at least 390 million

 

PS. Just a reminder

 

Eclipse  

Foreign:  $397,959,596

 

 

Breaking Dawn

Foreign:  $430,884,723    

 

Half Blood Prince

 Foreign:  $632,457,290

 

Deathly Hallows Part 1 

 Foreign:  $664,300,000

[The Panda]

LOL I remember my own thoughts. I didn't think it would out open THG, lol. It had nowhere near the pre-sale sell outs that THG had so I just knew it would not beat that OW. Man that was a fun ride though watching that opening weekend with show after show selling out on walk ups. Somebody called it a full on 4 quadrant Nirvana.

 

I remember going on opening day with a group of friends and we got there an hour early and still got stuck in the pit of our theater.  I then went again with more friends the next day on Saturday, got there an hour and a half early and the same thing happened (and this was with a smaller group).

 

The saturday viewing wasn't as pleasant as the Friday though because I got stuck on a row which was occupied by a very large family and a couple of babies and restless children.  It smelled and the babies cried.

 

Those were the only two times I ever remember getting stuck in the pit.  

 

EDIT:  Wait, I did when I went to see the Lion King as well, but that's because I arrived way to late for a new movie that had just opened that day.

 

EDIT AGAIN:  Crap, that also brought the memory that I did get stuck in the pit on one of my Avatar viewings as well, but I didn't remember that much because I for some reason went to see Avatar 7 times in the theater...

 

I can't even watch Avatar anymore because I have seen it to much.

Edited January 3, 2014 by The Panda