2014 Best Picture Prediction thread!

[Ando918]

Apparently Selma is starting to pick up some steam and move up the rankings.  Based off of the trailers for Unbroken, I just have a feeling that movie is going to be this year's War Horse or Les Miserables where it was 1 of the top 3 on Gold Derby on December 1st, and then just disappeared from contention.  Looks like it is trying way too hard.

[The Panda]

He must really hate James Gray for refusing to tinker with The Immigrant. That film was praised all around, much more so than Begin Again, St. Vincent and Eleanor Rigby, and it's not even up for consideration?

He didn't put Snowpiercer up either.

I'm also surprised Disney didn't put guardians up, sure it won't get a BP nod, but it's got a great chance at noms for a lot of tech awards.

[CoolioD1]

sorta coming around to the idea of selma winning, it sounds the most typically "best pictury" of everything so far, but I'll wait for a few more reviews.

[RichWS]

Assuming Unbroken underwhelms, you figure it's gonna be either Boyhood or Selma. 

[riczhang]

Assuming Unbroken underwhelms, you figure it's gonna be either Boyhood or Selma. 

 

Unbroken's not going to underwhelm tho. It's not going to get the best reviews in the world, but I've been talking to a few people who have seen it and it'll get good to great reviews. That I'm confident of and combined with the gravitas and the people involved and the sheer baitiness of the entire thing, I don't think Boyhood could possibly win. I don't know why everyone keeps thinking it's the frontrunner, but imo it's always been the 'thanks for playing' contender. 

[Jake Gittes]

the gravitas and the people involved and the sheer baitiness of the entire thing

That basically describes Lincoln, The Queen, and, to a lesser extent, stuff War Horse and Les Miserables, all snubbed of the big one. The Academy has demonstrated recently that it's willing to be slightly more adventurous with its choice of winners - the group of Best Pictures since, say, 2006 has consisted of two violent, uncompromising crime dramas, a wildly kinetic, stylish Bollywood melodrama by way of Danny Boyle, an unsentimental Iraq war drama, a silent film, a 70s-esque spy/heist/hostage thriller, and an absolutely brutal slavery film, which leaves us with only one fully predictable, classical Oscar bait movie (The King's Speech).

 

I don't think Boyhood is a lock to win at all, but as an accessible film with an unconventional and impressive hook, it would probably be a more fitting addition to that group than Unbroken which is basically another classically done Triumph Of Human Spirit tale. At least Linklater should be far more likely to win Best Director than Jolie. Selma already looks like a more appealing, cool choice as well. 

Edited November 22, 2014 by Jake Gittes

[riczhang]

That basically describes Lincoln, The Queen, and, to a lesser extent, stuff War Horse and Les Miserables, all snubbed of the big one. The Academy has demonstrated recently that it's willing to be slightly more adventurous with its choice of winners - the group of Best Pictures since, say, 2006 has consisted of two violent, uncompromising crime dramas, a wildly kinetic, stylish Bollywood melodrama by way of Danny Boyle, an unsentimental Iraq war drama, a silent film, a 70s-esque spy/heist/hostage thriller, and an absolutely brutal slavery film, which leaves us with only one fully predictable, classical Oscar bait movie (The King's Speech).

 

I don't think Boyhood is a lock to win at all, but as an accessible film with an unconventional and impressive hook, it would probably be a more fitting addition to that group than Unbroken which is basically another classically done Triumph Of Human Spirit tale. At least Linklater should be far more likely to win Best Director than Jolie. Selma already looks like a more appealing, cool choice as well. 

 

But the winners for all of them weren't boyhood. like boyhood is imo as a less likely winner than something like the 2007 slate, when the academy was at its edgiest, and as unlikely as ROTK and that was an absolutely undeniable film. Films like boyhood just aren't rewarded. Period. It's literally not the academy's style. The Academy has a style that they like, 'importance' which is the Hurt Locker, Argo, 12YAS, and they like Gravitas, again 12YAS (which is why it won over Gravity). And if you look at the films that won, the edgier films were by directors that are famous. Linklater is a fraction of the director that the Coens and Scorsese are in the Academy's and the Public's eyes. Linklater is someone that only the cineasts have have heard of but the Coens and Scorsese are widely respected and revered. Ben Affleck won on a very 'important' film that was gripping and fast paced and won on the backlash against Lincoln and backlash against the Director's snub. Bigelow won for a very important film against Avatar as its biggest competitor, a film that the industry didn't particularly embrace (for reference, look at the room's reaction when Avatar won at the globes). And she was a woman; she had not only a personal it's time narrative, but a collective, it's time narrative. 

 

Honestly, there are many films this year that I would rank above Boyhood. Definitely Unbroken, The Imitation Game, and a few others are better fits for BP winners. I literally don't see any angle or narrative that the Academy would embrace it for and I get that there's the 12 years a performance shtick, but I don't think it'll catch outside of acting and you need more than acting to win BP. 

[Jake Gittes]

And if you look at the films that won, the edgier films were by directors that are famous. Linklater is a fraction of the director that the Coens and Scorsese are in the Academy's and the Public's eyes. Linklater is someone that only the cineasts have have heard of but the Coens and Scorsese are widely respected and revered. 

True, but not entirely, I think. Dazed & Confused is extremely popular, and School of Rock was a big mainstream hit. Linklater isn't significantly less famous at this point than Danny Boyle and Kathryn Bigelow were at the time of their wins (like Linklater, both had made one iconic film in the 1990s and were hit or miss after that). 

 

I don't think it'll catch outside of acting and you need more than acting to win BP. 

It's a big contender for Director, Original Screenplay and Editing.

 

I get what you're saying, which is why I won't be ready for Boyhood winning until it actually wins. (The Social Network's snub taught me a lesson for life). But Unbroken and especially The Imitation Game (with the gay angle removed, though I heard the film largely does that anyway) still seem to me like locks for Best Picture circa 1994, not today. As far as more traditional films go, Selma is more likely than both of those because the reviews make it sound like a period film that has a modern urgency, and because the Academy gets to reward a film by a black female director. 

 

As for Boyhood's importance, one could find it important in that, by virtue of its gimmick, it depicts an entire decade of modern (and, more specifically, modern American) life as it's lived within the space of a single film, which has never been done before. Certainly it's more important than The Artist (which, granted, didn't have a big traditional Oscar bait movie to compete with) and Slumdog (which, granted, was a huge commercial success and more accessible). 

[riczhang]

Katheryn had the woman factor though and Slumdogs biggest competitor was Fincher which us basically a nonstarter in the academy.

And maybe this is because I've seen Imitation Game more recently, but comparing it to Boyhood, I have a hard time imagining why any academy member would vote for boyhood over Imitation game. I know I would vote for TIG over Boyhood because you admire boyhood a lot for what it is but TIG is something you fall in love with.

[Jake Gittes]

I'm surprised to hear that because TIG, just like The Theory of Everything, appears to be just another formulaic, personality-free Exceptional Person biopic in a long, tiring line of them. I could never love a movie like that. 

Edited November 22, 2014 by Jake Gittes

[riczhang]

I'm surprised to hear that because TIG, just like The Theory of Everything, appears to be just another formulaic, personality-free Exceptional Person biopic in a long, tiring line of them. I could never love a movie like that. 

 

Yeah but this is the Academy that we're talking about. They'd pick those films most of the time and personally, I think that TIG is much more than a formulaic biopic, this isn't TIL we're talking about, this is something quite extraordinary. 

[CoolioD1]

I think imitation game can win too, but ric since you're you I'm not gonna believe you for a minute when you say it's "extraordinary"

[The Panda]

I personally don't think a biopic is going to win, there are to many that are looking to be nominated.  I could see this going down between Boyhood and Birdman.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Ric what'd you hear about Unbroken? All I've seen are a few brief tweets. You think it will actually get good reviews from the critics? I just get the feeling they've got the knives pre-sharpened.

[riczhang]

Ric what'd you hear about Unbroken? All I've seen are a few brief tweets. You think it will actually get good reviews from the critics? I just get the feeling they've got the knives pre-sharpened.

 

I had a friend who saw it and someone else who I'm acquainted with who saw it. And they said that it was very well done, and of course the critics will come with knives pre-sharpened but like the reviews will still be predominantly good and will surprise the critics I think. Also, a movie like this doesn't need brilliant reviews a la selma or a la Boyhood to be in contention, so I think it's in a very good place. 

 

Also, yeah, Embargo until 2nd December is what I've heard thus far. 

[Cmasterclay]

I'm surprised to hear that because TIG, just like The Theory of Everything, appears to be just another formulaic, personality-free Exceptional Person biopic in a long, tiring line of them. I could never love a movie like that. 

I just saw Imitation Game and it was very much by-the-books and exactly what you said....but why does it matter? It was done exceptionally well, so who CARES what it supposedly represents or what style it is if it's well-made and enjoyable? That should be the only criteria. You should love something because it's a good movie, not just because it breaks the mold or if it's different.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

I personally don't think a biopic is going to win, there are to many that are looking to be nominated.  I could see this going down between Boyhood and Birdman.

I don't see either those two winning. 

[Jake Gittes]

I just saw Imitation Game and it was very much by-the-books and exactly what you said....but why does it matter? It was done exceptionally well, so who CARES what it supposedly represents or what style it is if it's well-made and enjoyable? That should be the only criteria. You should love something because it's a good movie, not just because it breaks the mold or if it's different.

Well I don't love good movies, I love great movies. And I don't usually consider something great if it doesn't take some kind of a risk or brings nothing new or refreshing to the table or has no interesting ideas to share. (All great movies do that, I think, although not all movies that do that are great). If a movie is merely "well-made and enjoyable", it'll probably be a decent way to pass an afternoon, but it won't be something that stays with me. 

[CloneWars]

I think Boyhood stands a pretty reasonable chance at winning. Birdman though doesn't. Selma probably has a chance. I don't think Unbroken, Imitation Game, Theory, or anything else can really win. I think Boyhood is underestimated by some. Oh what the hell, Grand Budapest not only pulls a nom, but a surprise win, as well. 

[The Panda]

I don't see either those two winning. 

 

Normally, I wouldn't either.  But so far we have absolutely no frontrunner, and I just cant help but think Unbroken (the biopic I think has the best chance of winning) is going to slightly disappoint critically.