WKD 3 Day Est. RA 41.2m, LS 23.2m, NJ 20.5, JR 17.2, FRZ 11.9

[Incarnadine]

I agree with this... 400M is just out of reach.But on the other hand, a few weeks ago DM2 was out of reach...So who knows? 400 would be astonishing, but so would 380-390.

I wouldn't say it's "out of reach", maybe a longshot at the moment, but definitely in the realm of possibility.

Most are now saying it's pretty much guaranteed to pass DM2 now, and when it does it will only be 30 million from 400 so it will depend on how much it's making when it passes DM2.

Right now I think it ends up 385-390, but it would only take a slightly better finish to hit 400, and if it's close I have faith Disney will pull out their bag of tricks to squeeze out a few million to get it over.

Right now, it's probably about a 7:2 underdog to hit 400.

[Deep Wang]

Frozen and Nut Job doing a ton fuck of cash just 3 weeks before Lego Movie hits. I think WB may have a problem...

I don't know. I know it's completely anecdotal, but we have 9 birthday parties that weekend, all for Lego. 2 of the kids birthdays are actually next week, but they are waiting until Lego comes out to have the party. We also have one group that has already bought out an entire show in our biggest theater for the second weekend. That's 299 tickets.

[Jack Nevada]

Lego Movie will be HUGE. 

[Spidey Freak]

I don't know. I know it's completely anecdotal, but we have 9 birthday parties that weekend, all for Lego. 2 of the kids birthdays are actually next week, but they are waiting until Lego comes out to have the party.We also have one group that has already bought out an entire show in our biggest theater for the second weekend. That's 299 tickets.

 

This just goes to show that if the King genre at the BO is currently superheroes, then animation is most definitely the Queen. 

[CJohn]

I was thinking it was going to be huge until last night. I still hope it will.

[druv10]

So how far Frozen is going to get ?

 

380, 400, beating CF ???

 

385-390M. Nut Job overperformed and Frozen wasn't hurt at all (-18.3% from last Friday). Lego movie isn't for another 3 weekends and if Frozen can survive this weekend than LM isn't going to completely kill it. 

[Spidey Freak]

385-390M. Nut Job overperformed and Frozen wasn't hurt at all (-18.3% from last Friday). Lego movie isn't for another 3 weekends and if Frozen can survive this weekend than LM isn't going to completely kill it. 

 

If it hits 390 I would want it to make it to 400M! It's always sad when a movie ends on a number where the tens' is 9. Unless the movie is crap like Man of $hit.

[BadAtGender]

Lego Movie will be HUGE. 

 

Yeah. When I took my family to see Frozen, the thing that excited my niece and nephew the most before going was the chance to see the new Lego trailer.

 

As far as Frozen's legs, following Tangled will put it in the 390s at this point, but it's holding better than Tangled. Since it's not going to get any more holiday boosts until after The Lego Movie opens after this weekend, it should see more consistent drops for a few weeks. From the 2.5 number, it seems likely it's going to get 17+ for the 4-day weekend, and could do 20 million for the week. If it starts taking 25% drops week-to-week, it'll be extremely close to 400.

 

It could start taking 40% drops and it will beat DM2.

 

20% drops, and it might beat TS3's unadjusted.

Edited January 18, 2014 by DamienRoc

[druv10]

IMO, if Frozen was to drop around 25% next weekend, then perhaps 400 is not out of reach.

 

No reason why it should drop harder as it has no direct competition like this weekend. 400M to me will depend more on it surviving LM and the video release in March. 

[iceroll]

Catching Fire numbers are in:

 

16 12   12 $285,555 $5,607,141 -1.8% / -42.5% -381 / -39.7% 1,762 / $162 $3,182 $414,999,792 / 56

17 15 (estimate) $649,000 127.3% / -46.3% 1,328 / $489 $415,649,000 / 57

 

 

And it's passed Toy Story 3 for #12 all-time domestic:

10	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$423,315,812	2006
11	The Lion King	BV	$422,783,777	1994^
12	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	LGF	$415,649,000	2013
13	Toy Story 3	BV	$415,004,880	2010

 

[druv10]

If it hits 390 I would want it to make it to 400M! It's always sad when a movie ends on a number where the tens' is 9. Unless the movie is crap like Man of $hit.

 

I fully expect it to get a re-release in the future so 400M is still likely to happen. 

[Incarnadine]

No reason why it should drop harder as it has no direct competition like this weekend. 400M to me will depend more on it surviving LM and the video release in March. 

Well, I expect a slightly bigger drop next weekend just because this weekend is a 4 day weekend with what will be an inflated Sunday. Frozen will probably shed a few more theaters too, so I'm predicting a drop around the low 30's, after which it should have a much lower drop the following weekend.

[baumer]

No reason why it should drop harder as it has no direct competition like this weekend. 400M to me will depend more on it surviving LM and the video release in March. 

 

Yes, but this is a long weekend so the Sunday drop will be muted.  So next weekends drops will be a bit steeper.

 

Check out LIP from last year (which Frozen has been compared to).  It dropped 22%, so that is where Frozen needs to be, imo, to have a shot at 400.

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2013&wknd=04&p=.htm

[rustyspoons89]

My nephew is very excited about the Lego movie... Maybe the parents will drop the kids off at Lego while they watch frozen. haha. I can't imagine the Lego movie having the same adult + kid appeal that Frozen has. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Frozen finally having competition in it's.. 10th, 11th week? I think by that point in a movies run the effects of competing movies aren't as big of a deal... Because by the 10th week the audience is a lot of repeat business and those who finally are willing to go because it's in the cheap theater. But I'm no expert.Plus, I saw frozen twice last week. Not one single kid in either showing. No joke. One of the showings was even a matinee. Lego might not hurt frozen at all... It will likely push it into cheaper theaters which could help it. But again, I have no idea just thinking out loud.

Edited January 18, 2014 by rustyspoons89

[Incarnadine]

I fully expect it to get a re-release in the future so 400M is still likely to happen. 

I want 400 to be achieved in its first run, so while I also want a future re-release I would like to see Disney give it a final push at the end of its current run so it would technically be considered a re-expansion rather than a re-release.

[tonicjr]

WTF jack ryan!? It even opened a couple of IMAX here and it opened this low!? I thought this would do sub-boxoffice hit numbers

 

And Lego Movie will be big

[The Panda]

Is it bad I'm glad Jack Ryan bombed? I mean I had bets against it in the casino so I'm biased, but if they are going I trash the franchise like they did they don't deserve to get money for it.

[druv10]

Yes, but this is a long weekend so the Sunday drop will be muted.  So next weekends drops will be a bit steeper.

 

Check out LIP from last year (which Frozen has been compared to).  It dropped 22%, so that is where Frozen needs to be, imo, to have a shot at 400.

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2013&wknd=04&p=.htm

 

True but next Sunday we don't have any NFL so drop will be very good just not as good as this Sunday. Tangled dropped 22.6% the weekend after MLK weekend and Frozen has held better than Tangled on every weekend except one where Tangled was inflated. 

Edited January 18, 2014 by druv10

[Mango]

Everything out now could hold really well next weekend. The only wide release is I, Frankenstein which doesn't strike me as something that will do all that well. Lack of new competition might help everything have smaller than normal post holiday drops.

[Jack Nevada]

About Llewyn Davis: was the song Please Mr. Kennedy supposed to be really bad or something? Cause I loved it.