Australia Australian Box Office | ....

[Jiffy]

I consider this market to be where the first Avatar overperformed the most. Where is A2 headed for a final tally?

[LPLC]

5 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

I consider this market to be where the first Avatar overperformed the most. Where is A2 headed for a final tally?

$50M-$60M

[Robertron]

20 minutes ago, LPLC said:

$50M-$60M

You’re talking USD, right? It’s already at 50m AUD.

[Robertron]

26 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

I consider this market to be where the first Avatar overperformed the most. Where is A2 headed for a final tally?

Using the general 10:1 rule to compare to the DOM market, Avatar made the equivalent of approx $1.15B.

 

So yes, about a 50% better performance here compared to DOM. 

[Jiffy]

1 hour ago, LPLC said:

$50M-$60M

Ah well.

[LPLC]

1 hour ago, Robertron said:

You’re talking USD, right? It’s already at 50m AUD.

Yes

[Jiffy]

Interesting that the anglosphere+Japan being where TG:M performed strongest relative to A2. Maybe there is something to US military allies (Canada gets a pass). 😄

[JJ-8]

apologies everyone, i misread - the numbers i posted before were totals (full week including boxing day) not weekend numbers.

 

Looks like Avatar TWOW did manage a 10m 3rd weekend

 

all in AUD

1 (1) Avatar: The Way of Water - 10.6m (+48%) / 51.4m

2 (-) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - 2.2m / 5.1m

3 (-) Lyl, Lyle Crocodile - 1.6m / 3.7m

4 (-) Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody - 1.2m / 2.2m

5 (-) The Banshees of Inisherin - 659k / 1.6m

6 (-) A Man Called Otto - 479k / 479k

7 (3) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 238k (-7%) / 29.1m

8 (-) The Lost King - 215k / 571k

9 (-) Triangle of Sadness - 203k / 617k

10 (-) Blueback - 171k / 288k

 

Updated from the Numbers.

 

Interesting that only 2 films survived from last weekend (A2 & BP2)

 

After posting one the weakest 2nd weekends among the top 5 films of all time in Australia, Avatar The Way of Water appears to have posted the biggest 3rd weekend ever! (first film to top 10m on it's third weekend).  A2 is now 3m in front of Avatar at the same point its run with a stronger 3rd weekend by 1m.  only time will tell whether Avatar TWOT can hold the same trajectory as Avatar.  at this point, 70m is a lock, and i'm beginning to feel like 80m is a lock with this 3rd weekend.  the 4th weekend will give us a clue to whether 100m is on the cards here in australia for only the 2nd time ever!

[Sophia Jane]

This run is really leggy and great,but what confused me is that I remeber Avatar 2 have huge and impressive presale in Australia,but these presale don’t work on Opening

[Robertron]

31 minutes ago, JJ-8 said:

apologies everyone, i misread - the numbers i posted before were totals (full week including boxing day) not weekend numbers.

 

Looks like Avatar TWOW did manage a 10m 3rd weekend

 

all in AUD

1 (1) Avatar: The Way of Water - 10.6m (+48%) / 51.4m

2 (-) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - 2.2m / 5.1m

3 (-) Lyl, Lyle Crocodile - 1.6m / 3.7m

4 (-) Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody - 1.2m / 2.2m

5 (-) The Banshees of Inisherin - 659k / 1.6m

6 (-) A Man Called Otto - 479k / 479k

7 (3) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 238k (-7%) / 29.1m

8 (-) The Lost King - 215k / 571k

9 (-) Triangle of Sadness - 203k / 617k

10 (-) Blueback - 171k / 288k

 

Updated from the Numbers.

 

Interesting that only 2 films survived from last weekend (A2 & BP2)

 

After posting one the weakest 2nd weekends among the top 5 films of all time in Australia, Avatar The Way of Water appears to have posted the biggest 3rd weekend ever! (first film to top 10m on it's third weekend).  A2 is now 3m in front of Avatar at the same point its run with a stronger 3rd weekend by 1m.  only time will tell whether Avatar TWOT can hold the same trajectory as Avatar.  at this point, 70m is a lock, and i'm beginning to feel like 80m is a lock with this 3rd weekend.  the 4th weekend will give us a clue to whether 100m is on the cards here in australia for only the 2nd time ever!

Holy shitballs that is an absurd 3rd weekend! This is beginning to feel a lot like 2009/2010 all over again!!

 

I’ll keep my excitement under control until it holds well next week

[upriser7]

 

[Fanboy]

I'd put my bets on 90M with that weekend. I will wait til next weekend to call whether it will beat TFA, but I really hope #1 and #2 all-time grosses in Australia will be Avatar films. 

[Robertron]

12 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

I'd put my bets on 90M with that weekend. I will wait til next weekend to call whether it will beat TFA, but I really hope #1 and #2 all-time grosses in Australia will be Avatar films. 

My faith in this is rising

[lab276]

NWH fell 15% on the same weekend last year and it still made over 23m after that. 75m is the floor at this point. 

[Robertron]

2 hours ago, lab276 said:

NWH fell 15% on the same weekend last year and it still made over 23m after that. 75m is the floor at this point. 

Here’s to $100m 🥂🥂🥂

[Robertron]

So who thinks TWOW will enter the all-time Top 10 by close of play Wednesday? Needs to be around $55.3m, so $4m Mon-Wed.

I think it got there yesterday. 

 

On a slight side note - it means Bohemian Rhapsody leaves the all-time top 10. I find it unbelievable that it made it there in the first place considering the genre. One of the greatest, most unexpected runs we’ve had in a while. 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Robertron

[Sophia Jane]

I wish this one beating 100m here

[Fanboy]

4 hours ago, Robertron said:

So who thinks TWOW will enter the all-time Top 10 by close of play Wednesday? Needs to be around $55.3m, so $4m Mon-Wed.

I think it got there yesterday. 

That's a given, should be at 57-58M by end of today. Hopefully 7M+ 4th weekend coming. 

[Robertron]

9 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

That's a given, should be at 57-58M by end of today. Hopefully 7M+ 4th weekend coming. 

This is not the run I was expecting after OW numbers came through. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - incredible.

[JJ-8]

ok so i've done some analysis of by comparing against Rogue One.

 

Rogue 1 has already dropped off the pace.  

 

Rogue One 

WE 1 - 14.8m / 14.8m

WE 2 - 4.5m (-69.5%) / 24.9m

WE 3 - 5.9m (+30.8%) / 37.6m

TOTAL = 51.5m

 

Now in comparison Avatar TWOW

WE 1 - 14.7m / 16.6m

WE 2 - 7.2m / 30.8m

WE 3 - 10.6m / 51.4m

 

Reason for comparing here is because Rogue One was the last big film to open with Christmas and NYD both falling on the exact same time as Avatar TWOW's run.  (Xmas = 11th Day of run in both cases)

 

For some simple comparisons, I used Rogue One's run as a comparison :

 

starting with a 10m 3rd weekend.

- using Rogue Ones weekend drops -> Avatar TWOW reaches 76m

- Taking into account Avatar continues to outperform Rogue One drops / increases by approx 15% (which is what it has done each of the first 2 weeks (excluding week 1).) I reach around 95m - 100m.  

 

This weekend will be telling against rogue One, Rogue dropped 49% on it's 4th weekend.  a drop sub 40% puts Avatar TWOW on track for a total > 90m and possibly higher.